The Task

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KoppedOff said:
I’d say its actually slightly better than as you were; we’ve come through both Manc teams away and not only picked up the 3pts at OT, but also maintained level goal difference. Not many teams will get through those two games without taking a bit of a hit on that front, so a bit of a positive in defeat.
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I meant ‘as you were’ just for the last game. Overall, we ‘needed’ 1 point from Spurs, Man U and Man C. We got 3, so we’re 2 up! Good point about the GD. If we do go on the positive run that’s needed, we’d end up with a very healthy GD, which could make all the difference.
 

Geordie Blade said:
I meant ‘as you were’ just for the last game. Overall, we ‘needed’ 1 point from Spurs, Man U and Man C. We got 3, so we’re 2 up! Good point about the GD. If we do go on the positive run that’s needed, we’d end up with a very healthy GD, which could make all the difference.
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I’ll be honest, before the Man U game I would have snapped your hand off for a couple of 0-2 losses 😆. The 3pts is a massive bonus, but I would have been happy with anything under 3-0 yesterday. Not a knock on us, but just knowing what they can do to any side. So yeah, if there is such a thing as a “good” loss, yesterday was it; no damage to either GD or confidence. Imagine if we actually stayed up on GD? Vengeance for going down on it last time.
 
Funny you should mention staying up on goal difference. I actually thought aboutthat and it could actually happen this season.

It's one of those weird things that happen in football and with our past history of last day relegations it would be karma if it came true.

We're owed a bit of good fortune I think.
 
Geordie Blade said:
It's 'as you were' for the roadmap to survival. Man City away was always marked as an 'L', so no change for the task ahead. The pessimistic view remains that it is still a HUGE task, but the optimist says that the win against Man Utd has given us a better chance. Still a tough run ahead. We 'need' 8 points from the next 7 games. Anything more than that will be a bonus.

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Whatever you do mate, if we pick up any more unexpected points, please don't change the last 'W' against Burnley to a 'D' Change anything else, but don't leave us just needing a 'D' to survive!
 
Very well thought out and (judging by January’s form) doable predictions (I know, not a prediction), I can actually see us getting a point from Chelsea and 3 from Leeds.

Its still out of our hands, Brighton win today will be a downer and anybody can go on a 3 win run, but we can only play who’s in front of us and if we go down fighting with 30+ points it will be an enormous boost to take into the Championship.

I‘ve put this thread in my watch list and hope you keep up with the table.

It’s just great to see this forum as a whole being a little less toxic, particularly towards Ramsdale.

My checklist of positives to build on.

Grinding out a win against a ‘park the bus’ team, done, Newcastle.

Beating a more flowing and attacking team, done, Man U.

Coming back after conceding, done, Man U.

Solid defending when we park the bus, almost there, but it was billion pound City.

Attacking on the break when we park the bus, needs work.

UTB.
 
Geordie Blade said:
I reckon we're going to need about 35 points to survive. As things stand today (after the Newcastle home match), that means another 30 points from 20 games. The table below shows where I think those points might come from. It is not what I think will happen - it is what needs to happen for us to get to 35 points, so there's no need to say "you think we'll get a win at XXX??". I'll update the table after each game, with a new column showing how the situation changes (i.e. our task getting easier or harder). This is more for the people who are interested in the numbers side of the game.

At the moment it understandably looks very tough (win 8, draw 6, lose 6). We can't afford many slips ups in the 'easier' games. One thing that it shows at the moment, is that we shouldn't get too despondent if the next three games don't yield many points - three are easier opportunities coming later. If we lose to Spurs, it means we'll need to find another point from somewhere else (maybe Leicester away?). On the other hand, if we pick anything up again the Manchester teams, it gives us a bit more wiggle room somewhere else. Again, remember that these are not predictions - it's more of a list of the requirement to stay up.

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Geordie's Dream.jpg
 
Here we go. No change in requirements from the remaining games, but (i) we're still two points ahead of the original requirement and (ii) that was a big tick to get WBA out of the way without dropping anything. Anything more than 5 points from the next 6 games is a bonus!

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Geordie Blade said:
Here we go. No change in requirements from the remaining games, but (i) we're still two points ahead of the original requirement and (ii) that was a big tick to get WBA out of the way without dropping anything. Anything more than 5 points from the next 6 games is a bonus!

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Southampton starting to falter, could be a chance to take all 3 points
 
bladesince64 said:
Funny you should mention staying up on goal difference. I actually thought aboutthat and it could actually happen this season.

It's one of those weird things that happen in football and with our past history of last day relegations it would be karma if it came true.

We're owed a bit of good fortune I think.
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It would be bloody typical......the Football Gods smile on us as we create a piece of history.....but none of our fans are there to witness it.
You never know for our last match of the season at home to Burnley...the government might allow us to sell 5,000 tIckets.

Same as it would be typical that we finally reach a FA cup final and are given 5,000 tIckets restricted by covid....in an almost empty Wembley stadium.

I’m 55 and the only time I’ve known us have some good fortune regards last day surprises were.....
1984....we’d finished in a promotion spot but Hull City still had a game to play away at Burnley.
They needed to win by 3 clear goals...to pip us to promotion on goal difference.

I listened to it on Radio Sheffield back in 1984...it wasn’t live commentary but Radio Sheff did have a reporter at Turf Moor reporting from the ground every 10 minutes. It sounded like Hull were all over Burnley....but only managed to win 2-0....so we gained promotion....after our season had finished.
No celebrations are the ground...so it’s just not the same.
 

I don’t think 35 points will be enough. 38 might need to be the aim.
 
Haha I don’t want to be the party pooper! Think it all depends on Newcastle tbh.

Just looking at their fixtures and the 4 games before they play us they play Liverpool, Arsenal, Leicester and City. If we can be within 7 or 8 points of them going in to that Liverpool game on the 24th April (We play Brighton that day) then there is still every chance.
 

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Geordie Blade, not that I want to create more work for you, but based on the few games since your original post, do you have a view on how many points we'll need to survive? Think 35 should still get us there, or have some of the recent victories out of nowhere for the likes of Brighton and Burnley changed things?
 
LondonBlade89 said:
Geordie Blade, not that I want to create more work for you, but based on the few games since your original post, do you have a view on how many points we'll need to survive? Think 35 should still get us there, or have some of the recent victories out of nowhere for the likes of Brighton and Burnley changed things?
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To be honest, I'm sticking at 35. This thread is about us and our mission, not other teams. I appreciate that the target might change, but it could go up or down. For every surprise win for Brighton (v Spurs) or Newcastle (v Everton), they will chuck some silly points away too, so I don't want to keep shifting that part of the target. Obviously once we get to six or seven games left, it might be a bit clearer and I could adjust it, but we could be completely gone (or safe :rolleyes:) by then.
 
Geordie Blade said:
To be honest, I'm sticking at 35. This thread is about us and our mission, not other teams. I appreciate that the target might change, but it could go up or down. For every surprise win for Brighton (v Spurs) or Newcastle (v Everton), they will chuck some silly points away too, so I don't want to keep shifting that part of the target. Obviously once we get to six or seven games left, it might be a bit clearer and I could adjust it, but we could be completely gone (or safe :rolleyes:) by then.
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Fair enough. I didn’t mean to suggest that you should make this thread about anyone’s mission bar our own, I just thought that if we need to get a different points total, even if we complete this “mission” it wouldn’t be enough to get us out of trouble 👍🏼.
 
LondonBlade89 said:
Fair enough. I didn’t mean to suggest that you should make this thread about anyone’s mission bar our own, I just thought that if we need to get a different points total, even if we complete this “mission” it wouldn’t be enough to get us out of trouble 👍🏼.
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I'm sticking with Geordie's original dream, as a set of results that are not impossible, and then progressively bolting his future results on top of our actual results as they happen. That way, it produces a credible final points total from a set of not incredible future game predictions.

As you can see below, that makes Geordie's original dream now project to a 37 point season.

Keep dreamin' Geordie

Go Geordie.jpg
 
blade too long said:
If you take the last 10 games and apply last season's results as the same we won 7 drew 2 and lost 1 at Newcastle after a sending off 25 points from 10 games
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Again, I admire your optimism but that logic doesn't work in real life. It shows it's possible but we beat Spurs at home last season and lost 3-1 this season lost to Man U last season at Old Trafford and won this season. Last season's results in corresponding fixtures is no indicator of where we'll end up this season.
 

derekacorah said:
Again, I admire your optimism but that logic doesn't work in real life. It shows it's possible but we beat Spurs at home last season and lost 3-1 this season lost to Man U last season at Old Trafford and won this season. Last season's results in corresponding fixtures is no indicator of where we'll end up this season.
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It's not optimism it's just to show we can results. Those 6 we lost last year we can win this time so could balance out
 
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