The Numbers Thread (Will Be Updated After Each Game)

[judge]

Here are my calculations for this season based on 3 points for a win and 1 for a draw

Blades =superior
Pigs = inferior

 

[grafikhaus]

Getting there...

 

[blade too long]

got to replace stevenage with notts county for certain now
especially when they whoop wednesdays ass next week

 

[dannycorker]

Update after yesterday. Notts County instead of Stevenage now.

Charlton - Top 2 Magic Number: 20 = 2.00 PPG
- Top 2 Projected Number: 9 = 0.86 PPG
- Champions Magic Number: 24 = 2.40 PPG

Sheff Utd - Top 2 Magic Number: 30 = 2.73 PPG
- Top 2 Projected Number: 19 = 1.69 PPG

Huddersfield - Top 2 Magic Number: 38 = 3.45 PPG
- Top 2 Projected Number: 26 = 2.40 PPG

MK Dons - Top 2 Magic Number: 40 = 3.64 PPG
- Top 2 Projected Number: 28 = 2.58 PPG

Notts County- Top 2 Magic Number: 46 = 4.60 PPG
- Top 2 Projected Number: 34 = 3.44 PPG

Sheff Wed - Top 2 Magic Number: 35 = 3.50 PPG
- Top 2 Projected Number: 23 = 2.34 PPG

Max Possible Points

Charlton - 108
Sheff Utd - 101
Huddersfield - 97
Wednesday - 97
MK Dons - 95
Notts County - 86

Projected Points

Charlton - 100
Sheff Utd - 89
Wednesday - 86
Huddersfield - 84
MK Dons - 81
Notts County - 72


I think people are worrying a bit much about Notts - even if they win every game left they'll have less points than our projected total. Just need to keep focusing on ourselves. Keep winning our relatively easy run in and we'll be fine (Y)

 

[PeterNdlovu081]

Wednesday haven't finished second in a league since 1984.

 

[MobileBlade]

We mathematically cannot be relegated. Phew!

 

[Selly]

  	             	  	   	       	Champ	Prom 	P-O  	Proj  	Avg pos	Avg pos
  	Team         	P 	PTS	Max Pts	Magic	Magic	Magic	Total 	Home   	Away   
1 	Charlton     	36	78 	108    	24   	20   	13   	99.67 	16.6   	11.6   
2 	Sheffield Utd	35	68 	101    	41   	30   	23   	88.92 	15.8   	12.67  
--	-------------	--	---	-------	-----	-----	-----	------	-------	-------
3 	Sheffield Wed	36	67 	97     	42   	35   	24   	85.61 	16     	9.4    
4 	Huddersfield 	35	64 	97     	45   	38   	27   	83.15 	8      	14.71  
5 	MK Dons      	35	62 	95     	47   	40   	29   	81.7  	12.67  	20.4   
6 	Notts County 	36	56 	86     	53   	46   	36   	72.77 	9      	17.5   
--	-------------	--	---	-------	-----	-----	-----	------	-------	-------
7 	Carlisle     	34	55 	91     	54   	47   	36   	73.47 	11.8   	10.86  
8 	Stevenage    	33	51 	90     	58   	51   	41   	71.3  	13.63  	12.6   
9 	Colchester   	34	48 	84     	61   	54   	44   	64.94 	7.83   	14     
10	Yeovil       	37	48 	75     	61   	54   	44   	59.38 	17.75  	8.2    
11	Brentford    	34	47 	83     	62   	55   	45   	63.41 	12.4   	13.14  
12	Hartlepool   	36	46 	76     	63   	56   	46   	58.39 	12.33  	13.25  
13	Bournemouth  	35	44 	77     	65   	58   	48   	57.73 	9.33   	11.6   
14	Oldham       	33	42 	81     	67   	60   	50   	58.01 	10.6   	12.88  
15	Preston      	34	42 	78     	67   	60   	50   	56.54 	7.4    	12.14  
16	Bury         	36	41 	71     	68   	61   	51   	52.62 	16.17  	10     
17	Leyton Orient	33	40 	79     	69   	62   	52   	56.06 	9.5    	11.29  
18	Scunthorpe   	35	39 	72     	70   	63   	53   	51.34 	9.2    	13     
19	Tranmere     	35	38 	71     	71   	64   	54   	49.38 	14.8   	12.5   
20	Walsall      	35	34 	67     	75   	68   	58   	44.87 	14.33  	10.6   
--	-------------	--	---	-------	-----	-----	-----	------	-------	-------
21	Exeter       	36	34 	64     	75   	68   	58   	44.58 	14.5   	16.75  
22	Chesterfield 	36	32 	62     	77   	70   	60   	41.59 	14.17  	11     
23	Rochdale     	36	31 	61     	78   	71   	61   	40.23 	13.5   	15     
24	Wycombe      	33	27 	66     	82   	75   	65   	37.29 	10.17  	13

County aren`t serious contenders for Auto, as has been said above they would have to win every game to get 86 points. They won`t win every game...

Realistically, its down to Charlton, Us, Pigs, Hudds and (as an outside bet) MK Dons, I can`t see Carlisle or Stevenage maintaining the consistency (especially with the extra game they still have to play) required to trouble the Top two (whether that include us or not is a different matter)

Things I not from the above:

Wednesday have on average a better class of opposition left to play away
Hudds appear to have a tough run-in at home

 

[cooperblade]

Updated spreads

Charlton Points 78/36 95 - 96.5
Sheffield United Points 68/35 87.5 - 89
Sheffield Wednesday Points 67/36 82.5 - 84
Huddersfield Town Points 64/35 81 - 82.5
MK Dons Points 62/35 81 - 82.5


Promotion betting (includes going up via play-offs)

Charlton 1/80
SUFC 4/7
Huddersfield 6/5
weds 11/8
MK Dons 2/1

 

[grafikhaus]

Slowly, slooowly. The overdue draw has finally come (better tonight than Saturday), but why can't we ever get a last minute winner?

 

[cooperblade]

Promotion betting

Charlton 1/100
SUFC 4/6
Huddersfield 6/5
weds 6/5
MK Dons 2/1

 

[dannycorker]

Update after the draw last night.

Charlton - Top 2 Magic Number: 20 = 2.00 PPG
- Top 2 Projected Number: 9 = 0.86 PPG
- Champions Magic Number: 22 = 2.20 PPG

Sheff Utd - Top 2 Magic Number: 29 = 2.90 PPG
- Top 2 Projected Number: 18 = 1.76 PPG

Huddersfield - Top 2 Magic Number: 36 = 3.27 PPG
- Top 2 Projected Number: 25 = 2.29 PPG

MK Dons - Top 2 Magic Number: 38 = 3.45 PPG
- Top 2 Projected Number: 27 = 2.47 PPG

Notts County- Top 2 Magic Number: 44 = 4.40 PPG
- Top 2 Projected Number: 33 = 3.32 PPG

Sheff Wed - Top 2 Magic Number: 33 = 3.30 PPG
- Top 2 Projected Number: 22 = 2.22 PPG

Max Possible Points

Charlton - 108
Sheff Utd - 99
Huddersfield - 97
Wednesday - 97
MK Dons - 95
Notts County - 86

Projected Points

Charlton - 100
Sheff Utd - 88
Wednesday - 86
Huddersfield - 84
MK Dons - 81
Notts County - 72

According to projected totals it will now go down to the last game of the season. Or we could just win all 10 games and stop worrying of course

 

[cooperblade]

Updated spreads

Charlton Points 78/36 95 - 96.5
Sheffield United Points 69/36 87 - 88.5
Sheffield Wednesday Points 67/36 82.5 - 84
Huddersfield Town Points 64/35 81 - 82.5
MK Dons Points 62/35 81 - 82.5

 

[dannycorker]

It's very reassuring that we seem to universally still be favourites amongst bookies and neutrals. Without knowing too much about the finances I do think that out of Us, Weds and Hudders we'd find it hardest to recover if we failed to achieve promotion this season. Pressure is well and truly on now, 10 games to go lets have 30 points eh?

 

[blade too long]

wednesday playing 5 away games that last season they got 4 points from, something along those lines would be nice

of the 10 teams weve got to play we havent lost to any of them in the last corresponding fixture at that venue, only never played stevenage at home

 

[dannycorker]

wednesday playing 5 away games that last season they got 4 points from, something along those lines would be nice

of the 10 teams weve got to play we havent lost to any of them in the last corresponding fixture at that venue, only never played stevenage at home

I'm not worrying about the teams below us as much as everyone else to be honest - has everyone forgotten how awful Wednesday were playing before they had two home games with a new manager against two of the worst form teams in the league? And Hudders still have Charlton and Wednesday to play at home, we have none of the big contenders (except arguably Notts Co) until Stevenage and MK towards the end. If we go out and play like we know we can in this league we could as good as seal promotion by the time those games come along. We could really do with a big win on Saturday to help calm everyone's nerves and go to County on a high.

 

[blade too long]

http://www.swfc.co.uk/page/LeagueTable/0,,10304~20120204,00.html

another way of looking at it
6 weeks ago we were 4 points bewhind the owls with 2 games in hand, we are now 2 points in front , so in effect we have took advantage of those games in hand

 

[Grecian2000]

and at that time it would have been a result. however, going into the derby we were 5 points up and still had two games in hand so our current position from there is a result for them.

If it's all about momentum, then we've lost some rather than gained it, in the last two weeks.

 

[Selly]

and at that time it would have been a result. however, going into the derby we were 5 points up and still had two games in hand so our current position from there is a result for them.

If it's all about momentum, then we've lost some rather than gained it, in the last two weeks.

Can`t argue with that, but lets see where we are come Tuesday at 10pm. I have a sneaking suspicion that we may be in a better position than we are now...

 

[grafikhaus]

For what it's worth...

 

[dannycorker]

Updated after Saturday. My spreadsheet is a bit confused I think with us and Wendy on the same points, will hopefully make more sense after victory on Tuesday night at County!

Charlton - Top 2 Magic Number: 20 = 2.00 PPG
- Top 2 Projected Number: 9 = 1.00 PPG
- Champions Magic Number: 19 = 2.11 PPG

Sheff Utd - Top 2 Magic Number: 28 = 3.11 PPG
- Top 2 Projected Number: 18 = 2.00 PPG

Huddersfield - Top 2 Magic Number: 33 = 3.30 PPG
- Top 2 Projected Number: 23 = 2.30 PPG

MK Dons - Top 2 Magic Number: 35 = 3.50 PPG
- Top 2 Projected Number: 25 = 2.50 PPG

Notts County- Top 2 Magic Number: 42 = 4.67 PPG
- Top 2 Projected Number: 32 = 3.56 PPG

Sheff Wed - Top 2 Magic Number: 28 = 3.11 PPG
- Top 2 Projected Number: 18 = 2.00 PPG

Max Possible Points

Charlton - 106
Sheff Utd - 97
Wednesday - 97
Huddersfield - 95
MK Dons - 93
Notts County - 87

Projected Points

Charlton - 98
Sheff Utd - 87
Wednesday - 87
Huddersfield - 83
MK Dons - 81
Notts County - 70

It seems like no one wants to get a final grip on those top two places, Charlton included! Hopefully Wednesday are just running off of new manager syndrome, and will collapse again soon. Regardless of what they do though it is up to us to step up and get as many points as possible out of the 9 games remaining. 27 points should be the aim, based on recent form Charlton are definitely catchable. UTB.

 

[Grecian2000]

Is it me, or have things only started to go tits up since this thread came along?

Magic number = 2nd.

 

[Jim Chimmerney]

Pigs on the charge for the title;

Projected points based on form from last 6 games;

Charlton 94
Pigs 90
Blades 82
Udders 82
MK 81

 

[grafikhaus]

Bugger it! Even we can't screw this one up!



Can we???

 

[Elsecar_Blade]

Magic Number = 21 (assuming t'Pigs cannot catch our GD now) - we either need 21 (7 wins) or a combo of our points and SWFC dropping. I can see SW dropping points on Saturday and at Hudders (maybe 4 or 5?) and probably a freak result somewhere that we don't expect. I think 5 wins and a draw will take us up.

 

[Selly]

Can`t argue with that, but lets see where we are come Tuesday at 10pm. I have a sneaking suspicion that we may be in a better position than we are now...

Hmm, well I was right, but not quite in the manner I expected...

---------- Post added at 08:32 AM ---------- Previous post was at 08:28 AM ----------

  	             	  	   	       	Champ	Prom 	P-O  	Proj  	Avg pos	Avg pos
  	Team         	P 	PTS	Max Pts	Magic	Magic	Magic	Total 	Home   	Away   
1 	Charlton     	38	82 	106    	16   	14   	5    	99.26 	17.5   	9.75   
2 	Sheffield Utd	38	73 	97     	34   	23   	14   	88.37 	14.5   	15.5   
--	-------------	--	---	-------	-----	-----	-----	------	-------	-------
3 	Sheffield Wed	38	71 	95     	36   	27   	16   	85.95 	13.75  	10.25  
4 	Huddersfield 	37	68 	95     	39   	30   	19   	84.27 	9      	13.4   
5 	MK Dons      	37	66 	93     	41   	32   	21   	82.32 	11     	18.25  
6 	Carlisle     	36	57 	87     	50   	41   	30   	71.99 	11.5   	10     
--	-------------	--	---	-------	-----	-----	-----	------	-------	-------
7 	Stevenage    	36	56 	86     	51   	42   	32   	71.78 	13.17  	13     
8 	Notts County 	38	56 	80     	51   	42   	32   	67.79 	14.5   	16.5   
9 	Colchester   	37	51 	78     	56   	47   	37   	63.22 	9      	16.2   
10	Bournemouth  	37	48 	75     	59   	50   	40   	59.72 	10     	12.4   
11	Brentford    	36	47 	77     	60   	51   	41   	60.06 	13.6   	12.2   
12	Hartlepool   	38	47 	71     	60   	51   	41   	56.89 	13.5   	9.75   
13	Preston      	37	46 	73     	61   	52   	42   	57.3  	8      	9      
14	Yeovil       	38	46 	70     	61   	52   	42   	55.68 	16.25  	9.75   
15	Tranmere     	38	45 	69     	62   	53   	43   	54.47 	15     	13.5   
16	Oldham       	36	45 	75     	62   	53   	43   	57.5  	9.4    	12.2   
17	Leyton Orient	36	43 	73     	64   	55   	45   	54.94 	10.2   	10.8   
18	Scunthorpe   	38	42 	66     	65   	56   	46   	50.84 	11.5   	12.25  
19	Bury         	38	42 	66     	65   	56   	46   	50.84 	12.5   	9.75   
20	Wycombe      	38	39 	63     	68   	59   	49   	47.21 	8.75   	8.75   
--	-------------	--	---	-------	-----	-----	-----	------	-------	-------
21	Walsall      	37	38 	65     	69   	60   	50   	47.48 	11.8   	12.75  
22	Rochdale     	38	34 	58     	73   	64   	54   	41.16 	12.75  	16.5   
23	Exeter       	38	34 	58     	73   	64   	54   	41.16 	12.25  	15.25  
24	Chesterfield 	38	33 	57     	74   	65   	55   	39.95 	17.75  	12.25

 

[Jim Chimmerney]

Based on season points;

Charlton 100
Blades 89
Pigs 86
Udders 85
MK 82



Projected points based on form from last 6 games;

Charlton 96
Pigs 90
Blades 84
Udders 83
MK 83

Udders could still be our biggest worry, they have a game in hand and still Wendy to play at home.

 

[Darren]

Based on season points;

Charlton 100
Blades 89
Pigs 86
Udders 85
MK 82



Projected points based on form from last 6 games;

Charlton 96
Pigs 90
Blades 84
Udders 83
MK 83

Udders could still be our biggest worry, they have a game in hand and still Wendy to play at home.

That lst 6 games thing is a nonsense as it takes into the account the once in a season disaster v Oldham and its consequence at Walsall. Over the last 4 games, we have averaged 2 points a game in fixtures 3 of which were away against top half of the table sides. That, in my view, is a more telling stat.

 

[Jim Chimmerney]

That lst 6 games thing is a nonsense as it takes into the account the once in a season disaster v Oldham and its consequence at Walsall. Over the last 4 games, we have averaged 2 points a game in fixtures 3 of which were away against top half of the table sides. That, in my view, is a more telling stat.

It wasn't a nonsense when we won 6 on the bounce ;-)

Of course stats don't tell the true picture but it's a reasonable reflection given that the fact remains that last night was only our 2nd win in 6. Of course any points gained in the next 2 games will boost our position but then again, that's the point !

 

[Selly]

Have amended table to include

- a projection based on PPg in the last 8 games
- an indication of the avergae position in the form table of the teams that are left to play home and away.

  	                   	  	   	    	     	     	     	      	Form  	       	       	Form   	Form   
  	                   	  	   	Max 	Champ	Prom 	P-O  	Proj  	Proj  	Avg pos	Avg pos	Avg pos	Avg pos
  	Team               	P 	PTS	Pts 	Magic	Magic	Magic	Total 	Total 	Home   	Away   	Home   	Away   
1 	Charlton           	38	82 	106 	16   	14   	5    	99.26 	96.00 	17.50  	9.75   	11.75  	13.25  
2 	Sheffield United   	38	73 	97  	34   	23   	14   	88.37 	83.96 	14.50  	15.50  	18.25  	14.75  
--	-------------------	--	---	----	-----	-----	-----	------	------	-------	-------	-------	-------
3 	Sheffield Wed      	38	71 	95  	36   	27   	16   	85.95 	85.00 	13.75  	10.25  	13.00  	13.25  
4 	Huddersfield       	37	68 	95  	39   	30   	19   	84.27 	82.58 	9.00   	13.40  	6.25   	16.00  
5 	Milton Keynes Dons 	37	66 	93  	41   	32   	21   	82.32 	85.08 	11.00  	18.25  	12.00  	15.00  
6 	Carlisle           	36	57 	87  	50   	41   	30   	71.99 	72.00 	11.50  	10.00  	11.75  	8.67   
--	-------------------	--	---	----	-----	-----	-----	------	------	-------	-------	-------	-------
7 	Stevenage          	36	56 	86  	51   	42   	32   	71.78 	66.00 	13.17  	13.00  	17.17  	8.25   
8 	Notts County       	38	56 	80  	51   	42   	32   	67.79 	72.00 	14.50  	16.50  	12.50  	14.00  
9 	Colchester         	37	51 	78  	56   	47   	37   	63.22 	64.50 	9.00   	16.20  	10.25  	15.80  
10	AFC Bournemouth    	37	48 	75  	59   	50   	40   	59.72 	53.58 	10.00  	12.40  	10.00  	16.00  
11	Brentford          	36	47 	77  	60   	51   	41   	60.06 	55.70 	13.60  	12.20  	13.00  	14.00  
12	Hartlepool         	38	47 	71  	60   	51   	41   	56.89 	55.96 	13.50  	9.75   	16.25  	6.50   
13	Preston            	37	46 	73  	61   	52   	42   	57.30 	53.83 	8.00   	9.00   	11.00  	14.50  
14	Yeovil             	38	46 	70  	61   	52   	42   	55.68 	62.00 	16.25  	9.75   	17.00  	12.25  
15	Tranmere           	38	45 	69  	62   	53   	43   	54.47 	57.00 	15.00  	13.50  	17.00  	10.50  
16	Oldham             	36	45 	75  	62   	53   	43   	57.50 	57.50 	9.40   	12.20  	15.20  	11.20  
17	Leyton Orient      	36	43 	73  	64   	55   	45   	54.94 	53.00 	10.20  	10.80  	7.40   	13.60  
18	Scunthorpe         	38	42 	66  	65   	56   	46   	50.84 	52.96 	11.50  	12.25  	12.00  	11.00  
19	Bury               	38	42 	66  	65   	56   	46   	50.84 	44.96 	12.50  	9.75   	13.75  	14.75  
20	Wycombe            	38	39 	63  	68   	59   	49   	47.21 	51.96 	8.75   	8.75   	7.00   	10.50  
--	-------------------	--	---	----	-----	-----	-----	------	------	-------	-------	-------	-------
21	Walsall            	37	38 	65  	69   	60   	50   	47.48 	52.58 	11.80  	12.75  	11.80  	12.00  
22	Rochdale           	38	34 	58  	73   	64   	54   	41.16 	40.96 	12.75  	16.50  	11.00  	14.00  
23	Exeter             	38	34 	58  	73   	64   	54   	41.16 	38.00 	12.25  	15.25  	11.75  	13.50  
24	Chesterfield       	38	33 	57  	74   	65   	55   	39.95 	41.96 	17.75  	12.25  	14.50  	9.50

 

[cooperblade]

Latest spreads

Charlton Points 82/38 95 - 96
Sheffield United Points 73/38 87 - 88
Sheffield Wednesday Points 71/38 84 - 85
Huddersfield Town Points 68/37 82 - 83.5
MK Dons Points 66/37 81.5 - 83

...and promotion betting

Charlton 1/100
SUFC 8/13
weds Evs
Huddersfield 11/10
MK Dons 2/1