The Ched effect - not as great as you might think

[BladeFisher]

Now I've done a bit of analysis on this and the good news is had Evans not played for us we would be heading to Exeter needing a win to secure our place in the play-offs. That's a bit more encouraging isn't it? Made me feel better anyway.

Perhaps if the players knew this they might have a little more self belief.

For what its worth we would have 71 points, so Mr E was worth 18 points to us. Incidentally he only influenced 8 games, ie his goals turned the result. Only once was this a win from defeat Preston (H), got a few wins from draws Carlisle (H), Chesterfield (H&A), Brentford (A), Tranmere (A), Hartlepool (A), Bornemouth (H) and saved us from defeat against Scunthorpe (A) and the Pigs (H). Interestingly he had a greater effect at home.

Whilst this is a simplistic analysis not including assists etc it is a little bit more conforting. I do except someone else may have scored his penalties. Having looked at it next season might be more promising than we thought - if we can hold on to the players.

P45 W12 D5 L6 F38 A27 W8 D6 L8 F23 A22 Pts71

 

[Highbury_Blade]

what about those games where his asissts turned the result?

Bournemouth away?

 

[jockdodds]

Now I've done a bit of analysis on this and the good news is had Evans not played for us we would be heading to Exeter needing a win to secure our place in the play-offs. That's a bit more encouraging isn't it? Made me feel better anyway.

Perhaps if the players knew this they might have a little more self belief.

For what its worth we would have 71 points, so Mr E was worth 18 points to us. Incidentally he only influenced 8 games, ie his goals turned the result. Only once was this a win from defeat Preston (H), got a few wins from draws Carlisle (H), Chesterfield (H&A), Brentford (A), Tranmere (A), Hartlepool (A), Bornemouth (H) and saved us from defeat against Scunthorpe (A) and the Pigs (H). Interestingly he had a greater effect at home.

Whilst this is a simplistic analysis not including assists etc it is a little bit more conforting. I do except someone else may have scored his penalties. Having looked at it next season might be more promising than we thought - if we can hold on to the players.

P45 W12 D5 L6 F38 A27 W8 D6 L8 F23 A22 Pts71

Plus, the winner against Hartlepool was a penalty, which someone else would have taken and (hopefully) scored.

 

[yorkshirecoast]

Yes, it is simplistic. And without Ched, we'd be mid-table in my opinion. He created havoc in opposition defences & scored goals nobody else was capable of scoring.

If we don't go up I think we need at least 3 decent additions and more pace to compete for promotion next season. If we go up, make that 5 or 6 and far more pace!

 

[Trafford]

The Ched effect that we missed yesterday was his movement and ability to do something unexpected, which makes him a nightmare for defenders to mark. Porter is static and predictable, whereas O'Halloran lacks penetration / an end product. Incidentally Ched didn't demonstrate these qualities ast year, hence why he's scored 35 this year and was a disappointment last year.

 

[Webding]

Of the six league games without Evans at the start of the season, we won five and drew one. 16 points and 13 goals.

In the six immediately following his inclusion, we won one, drew two and lost three. 5 points and 6 goals.

I won't deny we're a better team with Evans, but it's hardly the case that we can't win (or score) without him. Though we probably won't until August.

 

[BladeFisher]

Of the six league games without Evans at the start of the season, we won five and drew one. 16 points and 13 goals.

In the six immediately following his inclusion, we won one, drew two and lost three. 5 points and 6 goals.

I won't deny we're a better team with Evans, but it's hardly the case that we can't win (or score) without him. Though we probably won't until August.

Thanks for that. That's why I did the analysis on it. There is no doubt he added more than goals but the point was it wasn't as great as might be assumed. I was surprised that without Ched we'd still be in the play offs.

 

[davidpinder]

what about those games where his asissts turned the result?

Bournemouth away?

and the rest made both against L Orient for a start plus many many more. We won't win any the next 3 without ched i can see it now. Yes 3 games not 4.

 

[stannyblade]

so we have played with ten men most of the season? What if Evans replacement had banged goals in?

 

[Selly]

so we have played with ten men most of the season? What if Evans replacement had banged goals in?

Like Porter and O'Halloran did on Saturday....

...oh...