Southampton is a must win

[Melbourne Blade]

I've given up any slight glimmer of play off hope. If we win tmrw (I don't think we will with likely CB partnership of Mee and Mcguiness) and draw at Millwall then beat Oxford it improves our chances slightly but then have Boro and Cov sandwiching the Pigs game.

 

[Champagneblade]

It wasn’t a bad set of results yesterday.

If we somehow get a win then there will be some belief back in the camp.

We still have what will hopefully be a home win vs Oxford in hand now.

I mean, we’re better then the like of Atoke who are in just immediately outside the Play Offs.

 

[ucandomagic]

I could put all my graphs up - but the position is relatively simple:-

1. Based on the actual teams that we have played home and away, we are 10-12 points behind where we would typically need to be for a 6th-placed finish.

2. In order to achieve a 6th-placed finish now, based again on the actual fixtures to come, we need a Top 2 performance for the last 20 games.

3. Last season we had a Top 2 performance over the whole season, so it is perfectly possible.

4. Over the season so far the xG Pts table (below) has us currently 4th - so our general play suggests that we should finish much higher than we currently are.

5. Unfortunately for tonight, Southampton are 3rd in the xG Pts table and underachieving their general performances by as much as we are!

6. A point away at Southampton would be a decent result, and keep 6th place just about as realistic as it is now.

UTB & Slava Ukraini!

xG Pts Table:

 

[Champagneblade]

I could put all my graphs up - but the position is relatively simple:-

1. Based on the actual teams that we have played home and away, we are 10-12 points behind where we would typically need to be for a 6th-placed finish.

2. In order to achieve a 6th-placed finish now, based again on the actual fixtures to come, we need a Top 2 performance for the last 20 games.

3. Last season we had a Top 2 performance over the whole season, so it is perfectly possible.

4. Over the season so far the xG Pts table (below) has us currently 4th - so our general play suggests that we should finish much higher than we currently are.

5. Unfortunately for tonight, Southampton are 3rd in the xG Pts table and underachieving their general performances by as much as we are!

6. A point away at Southampton would be a decent result, and keep 6th place just about as realistic as it is now.

UTB & Slava Ukraini!

xG Pts Table:
View attachment 229387

Hull 19th yet supposedly pushing for top 2 in reality. That’s mad!

 

[Revolution]

4. Over the season so far the xG Pts table (below) has us currently 4th - so our general play suggests that we should finish much higher than we currently are.

Just to pick up on this point, our general play does not suggest that.

Let's assume the Xg analysis is correct. What it suggests is:

- we have scored 7 or 8 less goals than we should have. Yes, we have missed a lot of good chances, probably more than we usually do in a season.

- we have conceded nearly 8 goals more than we should have. Yes, easy to see why. Cooper's standards have fallen massively and he's conceded a number of goals where you'd expect a save last season. McGuinness is a lot worse than anyone who played last season. Mee and Tanganga are not as good as Ahmedhodzic or Souttar. Burrows is having a poorer season. We had no serviceable right back until Seriki got a run. Bindon has been up and down.

The defence is nowhere near as good as it was last season and the forward line, whilst doing ok, is still profligate, as saturday showed.

Whilst acknowledging that there is such a thing as regression to the mean, these numbers are not ridiculous outliers. The same players are going to be carrying on, by and large. There is nothing to suggest they will magically improve.

In other words, it is not inevitable that underperformance of Xg will correct itself. Particularly where the sample size is already more than half a season of games.,

 

[mattbianco1]

If only Sheffield had an airport...

Zatterstrom is in Southampton then, not Italy.

 

[mattbianco1]

I've given up any slight glimmer of play off hope. If we win tmrw (I don't think we will with likely CB partnership of Mee and Mcguiness) and draw at Millwall then beat Oxford it improves our chances slightly but then have Boro and Cov sandwiching the Pigs game.

You've missed out Ipswich and Portsmouth.

The fixtures are:

S'oton (a)
Ipswich (h)
Millwall (a)
Oxford (h)
Boro (h)
Portsmouth (a)
Pigs (h)
Coventry (h)

 

[Champagneblade]

Zatterstrom is in Southampton then, not Italy.

He booked easyjet from kayak. It’s cheaper to fly to Italy from there

 

[mattbianco1]

He booked easyjet from kayak. It’s cheaper to fly to Italy from there

Worth noting that if he gets minutes tonight, then he can't leave on loan.

Played for Malmo in this seasons Champions League Qualifiers

 

[Champagneblade]

Worth noting that if he gets minutes tonight, then he can't leave on loan.

Played for Malmo in this seasons Champions League Qualifiers

Does this count as their this season or their last season?

The Champions League is this season but it actually takes place in their post/pre season.

He’s played no league games for them so it might be an interesting one.

 

[mattbianco1]

Does this count as their this season or their last season?

The Champions League is this season but it actually takes place in their post/pre season.

He’s played no league games for them so it might be an interesting one.

I think as the CL is classed as this season for most clubs, it would be this season.
It would certainly explain why he hasn't had any minutes if the plan is/was to send him on loan

 

[ThirdGenBlade]

6. A point away at Southampton would be a decent result, and keep 6th place just about as realistic as it is now.

OK GraphMan - we have a great long emotional thread and then, as usual, you sum up the answer to the OP in that single sentence - with factual back-up!

To comment on Champagneblade 's point - I think the xgtable does represent general play, as it uses the chances created and the chances conceded - which surely is the end result of general play - maximise one and minimise the other.

The actual results then depend simply on how well we finish and how well we stop those shots. We have scored about 8 less than our chances would expect and conceded about 8 more than our chances allowed would suggest.

In terms of xg on target - ie once the shots arrive at the keeper - Cooper has conceded 9 more than the average keeper.
In terms of xg deficit - Ings is -2.7, Peck is -1.7 and Brooks is -1.5.

If these 4 players had saved/converted to an average rate we would be very close to our xgpoints table position.

So the xgpoints table does represent our general level of play - it is simply below average performance at striking and saving at the very end of that play that is letting us down.

UTB & FTP!

 

[Ndiayewillalwaysloveyou]

In my time we always seem to lose at Southampton? Followed United since 2003 properly.

 

[Willglynning]

How long until we see an ‘Ipswich is a must win’ thread? Deluded.

 

[54yrblade]

If anyone thinks that team and our decision makers are going to make top 6, you need to give your head a wobble. The PL is a pipe dream right now.

Mid table finish, tops.

 

[CPB]

Unfortunate not to take something from that.

Also fortunate to not lose by more than 1.

We seemed to make all the wrong decisions from just about all of our better attacking play. Certainly the final ball.

Bamford unlucky not to score at the death. What was Hamer doing on the follow up?

I must admit now. Do we just make sure we don't go down and look to next season?

Feel like we would need to get a good points haul from Boro, Millwall, Coventry and Ipswich to change the narrative to looking at the playoffs again.
Can't see us doing better than 4 PTS tops from them.

 

[mattbianco1]

That's me throwing in the Play Offs towel.

Needed a positive result there.

Thing is we were in great form going to that Oxford game that was cancelled.
Then we've had a freak game at Charlton and lost to a wank deflection tonight... When your lucks out.

We'll beat Ipswich now, you watch

 

[UddersBlade]

That's me throwing in the Play Offs towel.

Needed a positive result there.

Thing is we were in great form going to that Oxford game that was cancelled.
Then we've had a freak game at Charlton and lost to a wank deflection tonight... When your lucks out.

We'll beat Ipswich now, you watch

No we won’t. They are the best team in this league now. We’ll lose to Ipswich & Millwall without Tanganga, Soumare. Bindon may or may not be back - but Mc Guinness dislocated his shoulder tonight & I expect him to be out for a few weeks for proper recovery.

 

[Blackheath Blade]

Zatterstrom is in Southampton then, not Italy.

I'd tell them to make their own way home tonight because that was dreadful.

 

[ATL Recs]

If anyone thinks that team and our decision makers are going to make top 6, you need to give your head a wobble. The PL is a pipe dream right now.

Mid table finish, tops.

Lose the next three ( which is likely ) then we are in a scrap at the bottom
We have recruited soms shyte

 

[CaptainMorgans]

That's me throwing in the Play Offs towel.

Needed a positive result there.

Thing is we were in great form going to that Oxford game that was cancelled.
Then we've had a freak game at Charlton and lost to a wank deflection tonight... When your lucks out.

We'll beat Ipswich now, you watch

Honestly though, that is the nature of being a midtable side. We're just really not used to it.

Maybe we'd have beaten Oxford and with a it of luck, Charlton but we'd still only be 14/15th and the run would've ended eventually.

There was never any way this side was going to go 2ppg to the end of the season. We are way too weak defensively to maintain a run like that.

Appreciate there's other stats floating around about how we're underperforming our XG, but that's mostly due to carrying a crippled 1st choice goalkeeper.
It isn't a chance fluke that will correct itself.

Just enjoy each game as it comes and hope for relegating Wednesday at Bramall Lane. That is as good as our season can get.

 

[Kenworthy’s Tash]

No chance of relegation imo

Also , no chance of top 6

Use what remains to get the players Wilder needs fit (Peck - Arblaster) - get the dross off the books where possible (almost every pre Wilder signing) - prepare to offload Davies x 2 , Campbell , Hamer, Shackleton - plan well in advance our budget for next season and target what Wilder wants - quality over quantity

I wouldn’t trust Wilder with our ever decreasing transfer kitty.

 

[CaptainMorgans]

I wouldn’t trust Wilder with our ever decreasing transfer kitty.

I'm the opposite. I wouldn't trust him with an inflated one but would this Summer.

The only way I'd sack him is if we could tempt Heckingbottom back.

 

[Pedro Verde]

OK GraphMan - we have a great long emotional thread and then, as usual, you sum up the answer to the OP in that single sentence - with factual back-up!

To comment on Champagneblade 's point - I think the xgtable does represent general play, as it uses the chances created and the chances conceded - which surely is the end result of general play - maximise one and minimise the other.

The actual results then depend simply on how well we finish and how well we stop those shots. We have scored about 8 less than our chances would expect and conceded about 8 more than our chances allowed would suggest.

In terms of xg on target - ie once the shots arrive at the keeper - Cooper has conceded 9 more than the average keeper.
In terms of xg deficit - Ings is -2.7, Peck is -1.7 and Brooks is -1.5.

If these 4 players had saved/converted to an average rate we would be very close to our xgpoints table position.

So the xgpoints table does represent our general level of play - it is simply below average performance at striking and saving at the very end of that play that is letting us down.

UTB & FTP!

All this XG bollocks
Can you explain to me why Norwich (XG 0.83) beat WBA (XG 1.34) 5-0