Run in difficulty - the top 6

[Pollingtonblade]

Don't wish too dampen your optimism but are you really fancying Norwich, the same Norwich that some how managed to loose 3-2 at home to the Scrubbers after leading 2-0.

And failed to have a shot at the net v us and leeds away

 

[raimond]

Don't wish too dampen your optimism but are you really fancying Norwich, the same Norwich that some how managed to loose 3-2 at home to the Scrubbers after leading 2-0.

Aye.

 

[raimond]

And failed to have a shot at the net v us and leeds away

Aye.

 

[thehet]

Most of the main yootoobers have their final predictions. Some interesting results. Someone has us winning the and league. I forget who. Sorry for all the links!

Not knocking any of them, but I guarantee they will all make at least one more “final” prediction.

 

[CaptainMorgans]

I think over the last 8 games, the form of the top 3 is:

Burnley - 19.
Blades - 18.
Leeds 17.

If we all kept up that level:

1. Blades - 98
2. Leeds - 97 (GD+)
3. Burnley - 97

I don't think it will go like that, but we could be looking at an unusually larhe points total to finish 2nd.

 

[andy m]

I think over the last 8 games, the form of the top 3 is:

Burnley - 19.
Blades - 18.
Leeds 17.

If we all kept up that level:

1. Blades - 98
2. Leeds - 97 (GD+)
3. Burnley - 97

I don't think it will go like that, but we could be looking at an unusually larhe points total to finish 2nd.

No its:
Burnley 20
Blades 19
Leeds 17

 

[jono_t2000]

We will all drop points between now and the end - I suspect we will have one team that ends on about 98 and two of the others on around 91/92. Absolutely no idea who though.

It's going to be really interesting, probably will get a lot more national focus too because the Prem is pretty much wrapped up already in terms of title and relegation.

Probably about right.

There were some on here saying that 1, 2 or even all 3 could finish above 100 points which was absolutely wild talk.

 

[CaptainMorgans]

No its:
Burnley 20
Blades 19
Leeds 17

Even more outrageous.

It was a pretty kind run for Burnley though. Hopefully they drop a lot more in the next 8. They're still unbeaten in about 25 though, their defence is holding strong and Marcus Edwards has given them so much more threat at the top of the pitch.

It's not going to be easy.

 

[snb69]

Probably about right.

There were some on here saying that 1, 2 or even all 3 could finish above 100 points which was absolutely wild talk.

There is the scenario where we get 101 points and finish third [Win all games bar Burnley (A), and the other two win all their games as well]

 

[jono_t2000]

There is the scenario where we get 101 points and finish third [Win all games bar Burnley (A), and the other two win all their games as well]

There is.

But there's also a scenario where the world ends tomorrow.

 

[Sky Blues]

Even more outrageous.

It was a pretty kind run for Burnley though. Hopefully they drop a lot more in the next 8. They're still unbeaten in about 25 though, their defence is holding strong and Marcus Edwards has given them so much more threat at the top of the pitch.

It's not going to be easy.

The next week in the Championship will shape how the season ends.

Burnley

Home v Bristol City
Away v Coventry City

Leeds

Home v Swansea
Away v Luton

Sheffield United

Home v Coventry City
Away v Oxford

There'd be no surprise if Burnley only pick up 2 points maximum. Both Leeds and Sheffield United capable of 4 points or more. If it happens minimum 4 points gap 2nd to Burnley with 6 games to go.

Love this time of the season. Nails bitten to the second knuckle. The question of life is questioned. Absolutely depressed one second Absolutely delighted 5 minutes later. Anyone who says they know what is going to happen is a liar. We know nothing. All we have is hope.

 

[Berkshire Blade]

Here is optas take



Mine is if we win our next 3 we will widen the gap!

 

[Pintor75]

Let's hopefully win our games, that's all we can do

 

[Cappy]

If the remaining games for each team have the same results as the same fixture from earlier in the season.....

 

[Feo]

With an inferior GD we can’t overturn and a 2pts deduction we might be hoping that our Yank owners have access to some good lawyers

 

[Selly]

If the remaining games for each team have the same results as the same fixture from earlier in the season.....

This looks like it would be comfortable, but it would be anything but.

We go into the game at burnley 2 points ahead, Burnley beat us to move a point clear of us, then they draw at QPR and we beat Stoke so we are a point ahead heading into the last day where Burnley inexplicably lose to Millwall and we beat Blackburn.

Squeaky bum time wouldn`t even describe it - the last day any 2 from three could go up...

 

[Balham]

With an inferior GD we can’t overturn and a 2pts deduction we might be hoping that our Yank owners have access to some good lawyers

We only got a 2 point deduction by waiving any right to appeal. That's a non-starter.

 

[Selly]

This weeks update - these graphs will be affected in a small manner by the Derby-Preston result on Wednesday as Burnley still play Derby Away and Leeds play preston at Home:

• Our run in got easier after this round of games - mostly as a result of us getting the Coventry game out of the way
• Leeds home run in also got very slightly easier - mostly due to Bristol C loss at Burnly reducing their avg PPG
• Burnley on the other hand - their run in got marginally harder - this is due to the game against us now being 1/3 rather than 1/4 of the remaining home games

Based on seasonal PPG, accounting for H/A, our run in is 12th easiest in the division. Leeds is 7th easiest. Burnley is 22nd easiest (or 3rd hardest if you prefer)

• Wednesday actually have the 2nd easiest run in - the problem for them being the points they are already behind Coventry and WBA who have the 4th and 5th easiest run ins respectively.
• Stoke still might be in a bit of bother - they have the second hardest run in and only a 4 point cushion to Derby (8th easiest and a game in hand)
• Any result other than a Wednesday win on Sunday means they cannot arithmetically catch us

And for the next round of fixtures

• Blades away at Oxford (1.68 season ppg, 1.00 last 4 ppg)
• Burnley away at Coventry (1.89 season ppg, 3.00 last 4 ppg)
• Leeds away at Luton (1.42 season ppg, 1.25 last 4 ppg)

 

[CaptainMorgans]

I honestly didn't expect us to pick-up 6 points from Wednesday (a) and Coventry (h).
With Leeds dropping so many points, I think there's been a pretty big-swing in our favour and I now make us title favourites.

Wilder teams aren't renowned for falling apart at the business-end of the season, indeed - Sheff Utd aren't (finished strongly under Heckingbottom twice also).

We have a huge opportunity in these next 4 games to put significant points on the board and hopefully build a gap to take the pressure off the Burnley fixture (which I still have us down for losing).
Burnley are the league's form team, whilst we know Leeds are having a hiccup. Both of their next two fixtures are away from home and against teams battling for play-offs or against relegation and in pretty decent form.

I still have it being extremely tight, and our GD could still be an issue.

 

[Blade56]

We’ve not managed to string more then 4 back to back wins this season, we’re currently on 2wins back to back, there’s 4 more games to the Burnley showdown so we could be on a run of 6 going into that game.

 

[Selly]

We’ve not managed to string more then 4 back to back wins this season, we’re currently on 2wins back to back, there’s 4 more games to the Burnley showdown so we could be on a run of 6 going into that game.

By way of comparison, Leeds have managed 5 in a row (once, currently 2D) and Burnley have managed 4 in a row (once, currently 2W).

Neither Leeds or Burnley have lost consecutive games (we have, once)

Leeds have drawn 2 in a row 3 times (including the current run) and Burnley have drawn 2 in a row 4 times.

The worst runs of games without a win are, Leeds DD (3 times, including the current run), Burnley DDLD (once) and us LDL (once).

So if Leeds don`t win this weekend they will definitively be on their worst run of the season.

 

[BalticBlade]

I honestly didn't expect us to pick-up 6 points from Wednesday (a) and Coventry (h).
With Leeds dropping so many points, I think there's been a pretty big-swing in our favour and I now make us title favourites.

Wilder teams aren't renowned for falling apart at the business-end of the season, indeed - Sheff Utd aren't (finished strongly under Heckingbottom twice also).

We have a huge opportunity in these next 4 games to put significant points on the board and hopefully build a gap to take the pressure off the Burnley fixture (which I still have us down for losing).
Burnley are the league's form team, whilst we know Leeds are having a hiccup. Both of their next two fixtures are away from home and against teams battling for play-offs or against relegation and in pretty decent form.

I still have it being extremely tight, and our GD could still be an issue.



View attachment 207792

It's debatable whether Burnley are the 'form team' or not. It depends on how many of the previous games you look at. Over the last 9 games they're accrued 1 more point than us. They now how 7 games to close down a 2 point gap. Looking at the last 10 games, we have one more point than them.
There's also an assumption that they will beat us when we play them. I don't know why that is. There's also an assumption that if we did end up in the play offs we'd have no chance. This is based on our play off track record, but ignores the fact that in those campaigns Wilder wasn't the manager and we had completely different sets of players.

 

[Selly]

It's debatable whether Burnley are the 'form team' or not.

I think it depends on what the aim is.

if it is to "not lose" then Burnley are absolutely the form team. If its to accumulate the most points perhaps not.

What is for certain is that right now Leeds cannot be described as the form team. And if their blip (1 win in 5 is their worst return from any 5 game spell this season) continues for 2 or 3 more games, us and Burnley might have pulled a little clear.

 

[JJBlade]

Oxford, Millwall, Plymouth and Cardiff have to be four wins for us, and the team and Wilder should do everything possible to win all four, no tinkering, no pissing about, no "I don't think I can last 90 minutes today" Just get out and crush these next four opponents.

If we do that, a defeat at Burnley might not be terminal, with Stoke and Blackburn to come we might only need one win

 

[bladesince64]

Nobody thinks we can beat Burnley.

We definitely will if we play to the level we did v Coventry.

Wilder will have the guys up for it big time.

 

[ATL Recs]

There is.

But there's also a scenario where the world ends tomorrow.

If the world ends tommorrow we will never know if they all get over 100

 

[BalticBlade]

Nobody thinks we can beat Burnley.

We definitely will if we play to the level we did v Coventry.

Wilder will have the guys up for it big time.

A draw at Burnley would be an excellent result and even a defeat probably won't be the end of the world.

 

[BalticBlade]

Oxford, Millwall, Plymouth and Cardiff have to be four wins for us, and the team and Wilder should do everything possible to win all four, no tinkering, no pissing about, no "I don't think I can last 90 minutes today" Just get out and crush these next four opponents.

If we do that, a defeat at Burnley might not be terminal, with Stoke and Blackburn to come we might only need one win

As has been mentioned already, we haven't won more than four on the bounce all season, so that would suggest it is unlikely we will go on and win the next four (given we're already on a two-game winning run).
The likelihood is we will drop some points in the next four matches, the key thing is we don't all shit the bed if we do. There's also a good chance that Leeds and Burnley will drop further points over the course of the next four games.

 

[Silky Sabella]

Oxford, Millwall, Plymouth and Cardiff have to be four wins for us, and the team and Wilder should do everything possible to win all four, no tinkering, no pissing about, no "I don't think I can last 90 minutes today" Just get out and crush these next four opponents.

If we do that, a defeat at Burnley might not be terminal, with Stoke and Blackburn to come we might only need one win

You couldn't ask for 4 easier team's to play against, plus can you really see any of them having the goal threat to beat Cooper?

 

[programmechap]

As has been mentioned already, we haven't won more than four on the bounce all season, so that would suggest it is unlikely we will go on and win the next four (given we're already on a two-game winning run).
The likelihood is we will drop some points in the next four matches, the key thing is we don't all shit the bed if we do. There's also a good chance that Leeds and Burnley will drop further points over the course of the next four games.

The average position of the opponents in the next 4 are;
Burnley 12th
Leeds 16th
United 19th

Burnley have 3 of their games against teams with play off ambitions. Also Leeds and Burley play only 1 of the 4 at home, whilst we play 2. You'd expect the gap between United and the other 2 to widen

I reckon, the points tallies will be:
Leeds 7
United 13 (I think Oxford might get a point)
Burnley 7

If that is right we'd have an 8 point gap going into the Burnley game and a draw would see us up!