Run in difficulty - the top 6

[mattbianco1]

I think the final day could have all 3 of us still going for the title.

Here's the latest form guide:

Last 5:


If the last 5 PPG is maintained for the last 10, it would finish like this:

1. Burnley (100pts)
2. United (100pts)
3. Leeds (96pts)

Last 10:



If we all replicate that last 10 PPG again over the final 10, the table would finish like this:

1. United (100pts)
2. Leeds (99pts)
3. Burnley (96pts)

 

[Selly]

Interesting graphs ........ IF I knew who the logos were (Blades and Leeds apart)

 

[CaptainMorgans]

Difficulty of each team's run-in based on the opposition's home / away form.

What is encouraging is that we're the No.1 ranked away team and 3/5 of our remaining away games are:

Sheff Weds - 23rd in home form table
Plymouth - 19th in home form table
Stoke - 22nd in home form table.

If we can win those 3 and then win 3/5 of our home games (tougher on paper) then we'll have 94 points, even if we lose the other 4.
Its going to be tight given how strong Leeds & Burnley are, but we've given ourselves a great opportunity.

 

[Stretch]

I had emails from 3 Leeds based colleagues this morning, all work related, but all starting with "well it looks like we are going to blow it again" type statements. It seems that that anxiety has well and truly set in already. If they don't take the lead early against Millwall, the nerves could get to the players.

 

[Selly]

I had emails from 3 Leeds based colleagues this morning, all work related, but all starting with "well it looks like we are going to blow it again" type statements. It seems that that anxiety has well and truly set in already. If they don't take the lead early against Millwall, the nerves could get to the players.

 

[Berkshire Blade]

Interesting mid week with all of us three sides playing teams on decent runs right now

I can see all of us dropping points easily. A scrappy "boring" set fans on here off moaning 1 nil win is all I want.

 

[Blademan18891889]

Interesting mid week with all of us three sides playing teams on decent runs right now

I can see all of us dropping points easily. A scrappy "boring" set fans on here off moaning 1 nil win is all I want.

Imagine if we draw or lose the meltdown on here tomorrow night.

"Fuck off wilder"
"That's it it's over now"
" we're wank, been lucky all season"
" cannon is the worst player ever"
" wilders bottled it, sack him now"
"Playoffs it is, well lose them too, no point even going to them"

 

[Berkshire Blade]

Imagine if we draw or lose the meltdown on here tomorrow night.

"Fuck off wilder"
"That's it it's over now"
" we're wank, been lucky all season"
" cannon is the worst player ever"
" wilders bottled it, sack him now"
"Playoffs it is, well lose them too, no point even going to them"

Absolutely then Leeds and Burnley lose and so it's exactly how it was anyway

 

[Blademan18891889]

Absolutely then Leeds and Burnley lose and so it's exactly how it was anyway

I'm quite confident tomorrow, we looked in complete control on Saturday, a similar performance will probably just be enough. Bristol city are on a bit of form though tbf to them. Burnley exactly same boat as us, feel as though Leeds will bounce back convincingly but then they have a tough trip Saturday.

 

[Melbourne Blade]

Decent run in graphic on BBC article with Wilder comments

Chris Wilder: Sheffield United boss expects tight finish to Championship automatic promotion race

Sheffield United manager Chris Wilder expects the battle for automatic promotion to the Premier League to go all the way.

www.bbc.com

 

[Selly]

Updated graphs following the midweek games:

• Our run in got ever so slightly easier after this round of games - as did Leeds
  • Our run in is the 8th easiest - leeds is 5th easiest - based on Season Form Home/Away.
• Burnley on the other hand - their run in got marginally harder
  • Burnleys run in is now the 2nd hardest in the division based on Season Form Home/Away.
• Other notes from elsewhere - Stoke might be in a bit of bother - they have the third hardest run in and only a 4 point cushion to Derby (6th easiest)
• Any result other than a Wednesday win on Sunday means they cannot arithmetically catch us

And as if to demonstrate the point around the relative difficulty of remaining games, this is the projected PPg of the remaining opponents before the game number onthe x axis.

i.e. Before Game 38 it includes the PPg of all the remaining games - the Game 39 number excludes game 38 etc - clearly as further results come in the difficulty may change (i.e. if we don`t win this weekend our Away PPG will drop, so burnleys remaining game diffculty will actually go down)

 

[adiosmiamigo]

Updated graphs following the midweek games:

• Our run in got ever so slightly easier after this round of games - as did Leeds
  • Our run in is the 8th easiest - leeds is 5th easiest - based on Season Form Home/Away.
• Burnley on the other hand - their run in got marginally harder
  • Burnleys run in is now the 2nd hardest in the division based on Season Form Home/Away.
• Other notes from elsewhere - Stoke might be in a bit of bother - they have the third hardest run in and only a 4 point cushion to Derby (6th easiest)
• Any result other than a Wednesday win on Sunday means they cannot arithmetically catch us

View attachment 206085
View attachment 206086

And as if to demonstrate the point around the relative difficulty of remaining games, this is the projected PPg of the remaining opponents before the game number onthe x axis.

i.e. Before Game 38 it includes the PPg of all the remaining games - the Game 39 number excludes game 38 etc - clearly as further results come in the difficulty may change (i.e. if we don`t win this weekend our Away PPG will drop, so burnleys remaining game diffculty will actually go down)

View attachment 206087

If we manage to cock it up,what then for Boss Wilder?

 

[CaptainMorgans]

I've dropped Sunderland out of it now, I think its getting too late for them to surpass both ourselves & Burnley with the gap as wide as it is.

My only concern looking at our run-in is that we have tricky home fixtures coming up and our form has been pretty hit and miss at Bramall Lane.
If the likes of Bristol can come and play us off the park for long spells and leave with a point, then so too can Coventry and Millwall.
And our run-in being made to look easier by playing Wednesday at Hillsborough (23rd in the league for home form), but we all know that won't matter in the Derby... this is their Cup Final and we're lacking energy.
We also potentially are playing more teams at a time when they will still have something to play for, but that's tricky to predict.

I honestly think its going to come down to that game at Turf Moor.

 

[PeterNdlovu081]

West Brom are still undefeated against the current top seven.

West Brom 0-0 Leeds
Leeds 1-1 West Brom

West Brom 2-2 Sheffield United
Sheffield United 1-1 West Brom

West Brom 0-0 Burnley
Burnley 1-1 West Brom

Sunderland 0-0 West Brom

West Brom 2-0 Coventry

West Brom 2-0 Bristol City

 

[chesblade]

My worry is if we drop out of top 2 this weekend we won't get back in.

 

[CaptainMorgans]

My worry is if we drop out of top 2 this weekend we won't get back in.

My predictions below. If we can get out of the Coventry and Wednesday games with 4 points then I think we'll go up.
If not, I think it will all come down to Turf Moor and my prediction of a loss there is based on our record against the top 4 this season (P5, W1, L4).
If you stretch that out to the top 6 its P8, W1, D3, L4, which is why I've also gone for a loss to in-form Coventry.

Its going to be tight.

 

[jono_t2000]

Updated graphs following the midweek games:

• Our run in got ever so slightly easier after this round of games - as did Leeds
  • Our run in is the 8th easiest - leeds is 5th easiest - based on Season Form Home/Away.
• Burnley on the other hand - their run in got marginally harder
  • Burnleys run in is now the 2nd hardest in the division based on Season Form Home/Away.
• Other notes from elsewhere - Stoke might be in a bit of bother - they have the third hardest run in and only a 4 point cushion to Derby (6th easiest)
• Any result other than a Wednesday win on Sunday means they cannot arithmetically catch us

View attachment 206085
View attachment 206086

And as if to demonstrate the point around the relative difficulty of remaining games, this is the projected PPg of the remaining opponents before the game number onthe x axis.

i.e. Before Game 38 it includes the PPg of all the remaining games - the Game 39 number excludes game 38 etc - clearly as further results come in the difficulty may change (i.e. if we don`t win this weekend our Away PPG will drop, so burnleys remaining game diffculty will actually go down)

View attachment 206087

Last line chart is very nice Selly

So reading that correctly our fixture difficulty never gets harder than Burnleys.

(Assuming the final chart is also ppg home/away rather than overall.. doesn't actually specify on that chart)

 

[Selly]

Last line chart is very nice Selly

So reading that correctly our fixture difficulty never gets harder than Burnleys.

(Assuming the final chart is also ppg home/away rather than overall.. doesn't actually specify on that chart)

Correct - as things stand our run in never gets harder than Burnleys - however results each weekend will change the "future" PPg matches - for example we are playing away at Oxford - if Oxford win this weekend, the difficulty of that match will go up. Similaryly if Coventry lose then Burnleys run-in gets "easier"

Whether at this stage the results will impact the PPg enough to materially change this view, I don`t know

And yes, its based on H/A PPg - so the difficulty of a Home game against Coventry is based on their Away form and vice versa.

I would say, whilstever we are ahead of Burnley in the table, then this bodes well - of course Game 44 is the key one at the moment...

 

[JayGreen17]

My worry is if we drop out of top 2 this weekend we won't get back in.

This was my prediction, we totally needed to win Bristol. - that game will be a total turning point.

We then have Coventry so we could be a few points of 2nd in 2 games time which will be very difficult to get back.

I’m very much getting used to the feeling that it will be the playoffs for us.

 

[YES Blade]

After losing away at Derby and their run of good form hopefully coming to an end, I’m hoping that the Coventry match might not be as tough as it could’ve been.

 

[Cappy]

 

[Selly]

I watched this on Friday - beware the clickbaity graphic on that thumbnail - spoiler - he doesn`t think we have an "easy" run in, nor does he think Leeds have a "cruel" one

 

[Selly]

Updated following this weekends games - yes our run in, on average, got harder as we ticked off (statistically) the easiest away game we had remaining. Our home run in also got very marginally harder by virtue of Cardiffs away win at Blackburn.







To demonstrate the point around the relative difficulty of remaining games, this is the projected PPg of the remaining opponents before the game number on the x axis.

i.e. Before Game 39 it includes the PPg of all the remaining games - the Game 40 number excludes game 39 etc - clearly as further results come in the difficulty may change

 

[Selly]

FWIW - as we all know how key that Burnley game is - if you exclude that game you get this...



Burnleys remaining home games are roughly comparable to ours, we still have a significantly easier away run in.

 

[YES Blade]

Could you also do a graph based on recent form?

The reason I wondered what this would show is that since Eustace went to Derby, our match against Blackburn is starting to look easier while Burnley’s match at Derby is trickier than the league table would suggest.

 

[Selly]

Could you also do a graph based on recent form?

The reason I wondered what this would show is that since Eustace went to Derby, our match against Blackburn is starting to look easier while Burnley’s match at Derby is trickier than the league table would suggest.

This is based last 8 games form - albeit it doesn't account for where the game is being played. If I have some time I'll see if I can do a version based on the Home/Away form over the past 4 games

 

[The Bear]

I think the really $64.000 question is if we finished 3rd would the team/Wilder be able to overcome the disappointment to make a creditable play off performance?

Given we struggled against BC, WBA and Coventry you do wonder.

I wonder the last club to blow it re autos actually won the play offs was ??

 

[mattbianco1]

I wonder the last club to blow it re autos actually won the play offs was ??

Last 10 Play Off Winners. Finishing position in Brackets.

• 2024 - Southampton (4)
• 2023 - Luton (3)
• 2022 - Forest (4)
• 2021 - Brentford (3)
• 2020 - Fulham (4)
• 2019 - Villa (5)
• 2018 - Fulham (3)
• 2017 - Huddersfield (5)
• 2016 - Hull (4)
• 2015 - Norwich (3)

So in the last 10 seasons...

• 3rd place = 4 wins
• 4th place = 4 wins
• 5th place = 2 wins
• 6th place = 0 wins

 

[mattbianco1]

Last 5 form:

• Burnley PPG = 2.6
• United PPG = 2
• Leeds PPG = 1.6

If we all continue that in the next 5 games, the table would look like this with 3 games to play:

1. Burnley = 91pts
2. United = 90pts
3. Leeds = 88pts

PPG extrapolated over the final 8 games...

1. Burnley = 99pts
2. United = 96pts
3. Leeds = 93pts

I don't see Leeds continuing their slump though

Next 5 games:

LEEDS

UNITED (min 4 wins has to be the target)

BURNLEY

 

[The Bear]

Last 10 Play Off Winners. Finishing position in Brackets.

• 2024 - Southampton (4)
• 2023 - Luton (3)
• 2022 - Forest (4)
• 2021 - Brentford (3)
• 2020 - Fulham (4)
• 2019 - Villa (5)
• 2018 - Fulham (3)
• 2017 - Huddersfield (5)
• 2016 - Hull (4)
• 2015 - Norwich (3)

So in the last 10 seasons...

• 3rd place = 4 wins
• 4th place = 4 wins
• 5th place = 2 wins
• 6th place = 0 wins

Thanks Matt. What is ours, over all play offs?