Run in difficulty - the top 6

[Selly]

I mentioned in a graphs thread elsewhere that I had some graphs that demonstrated the relative difficulty of each teams run in -here are those graphs:

This first graph looks at the remaining opponents that each team faces both home and away - and the season so far performance of those teams in home/away fixtures.

"Faded" data points are where the position were on 13th feb (i.e. before last weekend, and this midweeks matches were played).

As you can see Leeds remaining home fixtures got easier this week - by virtue of them having played Sunderland last week - we can expect the same for their away fixtures post our game with them. Similarly Sunderlands Away difficulty significantly decreased because they played Leeds

Blackburns home difficulty did the opposite - because they played Plymouth and that was the easiest of their remaining home fixtures.

The next graph does the same, but by league position:



I don`t particularly like this representation as it:

• completely ignores whether a team is being played home/away - and therefore good home teams and poor home teams will be positioned similarly
• Doesn`t account for differing number of games remaining - Middlesboro for example are a game behind everyone else - and if they win that they could move from 11th to 6th - which would impact the number.

What can we take from this?

• Our away run in is easier than Leeds - but thats at least in part because they have to come to the Lane
• Our home run in is very very marginally easier than Burnleys - but that will ease significantly after Monday night.
• But in reality - its all much of a muchness.

 

[N20 Blade]

We play Blackburn last. Blackburn hate Burnley. If Blackburn can't make the play-offs. The away fans might not be too bothered if they were to lose?

 

[programmechap]

We play Blackburn last. Blackburn hate Burnley. If Blackburn can't make the play-offs. The away fans might not be too bothered if they were to lose?

Or if they're safely in the play offs, even better. Players will be rested.

 

[Bladezz]

We play Blackburn last. Blackburn hate Burnley. If Blackburn can't make the play-offs. The away fans might not be too bothered if they were to lose?

After the song that they sing. Blackburn could choose 11 fans and they would celebrate getting beat by 10.

 

[Snake]

.

 

[Snake]

haha I almost did a William Carey there and typed a reply to a post I'd completely misread ......... why can't we just simply be able to delete a post rather than just editing it?

 

[YES Blade]

With 13 games to go, it likely to be very little between the teams. Once we starting counting down the last 10 matches it will start to get more and more interesting.

 

[Selly]

With 13 games to go, it likely to be very little between the teams. Once we starting counting down the last 10 matches it will start to get more and more interesting.

Which is why I will update these charts as we go...

 

[CaptainMorgans]

Saw a few comments above which referenced non-factoring of a teams home / away form.
A very good example of why its important to consider this would be someone like Sheffield Wednesday - 5th best team on the road. 20th best team at home. Hopefully they give Burnley a tough-run tonight, whilst we find it a little easier when we go to their place... (not banking on that).

Using each sides home / away ranking, I've come up with the above.
It shows Leeds have the easiest run-in and will likely coast over the line. Whilst there is little to separate ourselves from Burnley & Sunderland.

Burnley have quite a kind run of fixtures coming up where they may well claw back a lot of ground. Its vital we take care of the 4 games after Leeds.

https://footystats.org/england/championship/home-away-league-table

 

[The Bear]

haha I almost did a William Carey there and typed a reply to a post I'd completely misread ......... why can't we just simply be able to delete a post rather than just editing it?

You can.

 

[Selly]

todays update vs the position on 20th fb





Before anyone gets too excited about our relatively easier run in vs Burnley, a lot of the "difficulty" of Burnley's home run in is the game on Easter Monday - remove that and their run in is easier than ours...

 

[Balham]

I've taken CaptainMorgans' table above and expanded on it to show the relative home and away form for the opponents of the top 4 and the play off chasing side from South Barnsley. In this, we play QPR away on Saturday, the Rs are 14th in the table but 15th in the home table.

Perhaps unsurprisingly given that there is just over 1/4 of the season left all four promotion contenders' run-ins are pretty similar. Leeds' opponents' average league position is 2 lower than ours but on a home-and-away basis there's far less in it.

 

[CaptainMorgans]

Same table after with 12 remaining. There's a good chance Burnley get their noses in front over the next fortnight.. its going to go down to the wire.
Absolutely critical we avoid losing another 6-pointer at their place.

 

[Selly]

View attachment 205024


Same table after with 12 remaining. There's a good chance Burnley get their noses in front over the next fortnight.. its going to go down to the wire.
Absolutely critical we avoid losing another 6-pointer at their place.

Not sure I agree - to me it looks like we should be maintaining parity over the next 4 games - then unfortunately we have a trickier span of 4 games, before the final 4 games swing back in our favour.

The issue may be (as you allude) that if we lose at Burnley it may be all over.

 

[Balham]

There are also some quirks: all of the top 3 still have to face Millwall and Bristol City at home and go to QPR. United and Leeds also have Preston at home and Oxford and Plymouth away to come; West Brom still have to visit both Leeds and Burnley.

Half our remaining fixtures are the same as Leeds'.



Expanding that to the top 4 and we see that 8 of our remaining 12 matches are also fixtures Sunderland have left.

 

[Torrix1889]

You can come up with all the stats, graphs and forecasts you want but we all know the -2 points deduction will ultimately cost us second place.....it's the Blades way!!

 

[Davalon]

Think we'll find it difficult to secure second now unless Burnley have an unexpected downturn.

They're better than us defensively and despite a lean spell, seem to find it easier to score than us. I'll be astonished if we end up with a better goal difference.

Part of me is excited that we could win the play offs as that's the biggest game we could realistically hope to win and surely it's got to be our time soon. Imagine the atmosphere at the Paul Heaton gig the next day if we won.

That said if there's one club that could finish on 95 points or more and lose in the play offs, securing the worst play off record in the country, well you know.....

 

[Pintor75]

We have a
decent run in bar Burnley, should be capable of beating any of the others imo, if we can't we don't deserve to go up UTB

 

[blackydog]

All very well, speculating if / how we might get over the line, but many of us dread the thought of going back to the PL It shouldn't be like this.

 

[Blademan18891889]

You can come up with all the stats, graphs and forecasts you want but we all know the -2 points deduction will ultimately cost us second place.....it's the Blades way!!

And if it does we deserve it, we broke the rules at the end of the day. I'm still very confident after last night, let's be reyt, we win that game without a doubt against any other team in the division with that performance.

 

[Cheeky Blade]

Just need to carry on grinding out win’s against the lesser teams and we’ll be reyt.

 

[HighfieldBlade]

Jeez, I bet some of you lot struggle to pluck up the courage to cross a busy road.
You'd be analysing the probability of getting knocked over.

 

[Blade56]

Just need to carry on grinding out win’s against the lesser teams and we’ll be reyt.

That’s true, provided the lower placed games are won only one result will matter, us versus Burnley. If we match their results and at least draw with them we should be ok.

Problem is if we get back to the PL is what happens next?

 

[Cheeky Blade]

That’s true, provided the lower placed games are won only one result will matter, us versus Burnley. If we match their results and at least draw with them we should be ok.

Problem is if we get back to the PL is what happens next?

I don’t consider being in the PL a problem.

I’m sure many fans will disagree if there is s repeat of last time out but I see going up this season as win-win.

I’d hope for a different approach with the new owners.

 

[bakeblade]

Think we'll find it difficult to secure second now unless Burnley have an unexpected downturn.

They're better than us defensively and despite a lean spell, seem to find it easier to score than us. I'll be astonished if we end up with a better goal difference.

Part of me is excited that we could win the play offs as that's the biggest game we could realistically hope to win and surely it's got to be our time soon. Imagine the atmosphere at the Paul Heaton gig the next day if we won.

That said if there's one club that could finish on 95 points or more and lose in the play offs, securing the worst play off record in the country, well you know.....

The FA cup run could affect Burnley, they play Preston on Saturday so that's 1 game extra game to play (Cardiff away next Tuesday).
If they beat Preston and beyond the extra games will start to stack up.

 

[John Street West Terrace]

Difficult to gauge sides the back end of the season as with it being the business end of things . Sides at the bottom are scrapping for their lives can turn results out , this season currently only 6 points separates 6th to 12th for sides chasing a play off place & the obvious top end of the table games .
I certainly think we’ll need to win possibly 9-10 of remaining 12 games to secure 2nd place & I think the Turf Moor game will be pivotal . Burnley don’t lose many & have the impressive goals conceded record but have been liable to drop points on draws .
But the signing of Edwards for them could be a game changer at this level & turn those draws into wins ?

 

[BalticBlade]

You can come up with all the stats, graphs and forecasts you want but we all know the -2 points deduction will ultimately cost us second place.....it's the Blades way!!

Goal difference could potentially be our undoing as well

 

[blade too long]

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this shows last 10 games
we lost 3 but won 7 , hence 21 points and this playing leeds and sunderland a point more than burnley

if we repeat that it would give us 91 points with 2 games left
id take that now

 

[mattbianco1]

There are also some quirks: all of the top 3 still have to face Millwall and Bristol City at home and go to QPR. United and Leeds also have Preston at home and Oxford and Plymouth away to come; West Brom still have to visit both Leeds and Burnley.

Half our remaining fixtures are the same as Leeds'.

View attachment 205025

Expanding that to the top 4 and we see that 8 of our remaining 12 matches are also fixtures Sunderland have left.

View attachment 205026

That doesn't look right mate.

Leeds have done the double over Wednesday already and you've omitted Plymouth from our run in

 

[blade too long]

Think we'll find it difficult to secure second now unless Burnley have an unexpected downturn.
they arent so hot at home- only won 6 so far and drawn quite a few too