Statistics Promotion spending

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Greg.

Greg.

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Out of interest, I had a quick look at spending by newly promoted teams in recent seasons. This uses Transfermarkt figures which are not perfect, but the main source there is about spending.

  • Unfortunately shows there is a pretty decent correlation between spending and staying up (it's been quite rare to spend sub <€40m and stay up (exceptions in recent years are Leicester, Newcastle and Brentford who all had decent teams from memory)
  • That Fulham in 2018-19 was the worst in terms of spending a fortune and still finishing 19th. Luckily they have a loaded owner ($12bn I think nowadays) and so managed to keep Mitrovic and the likes when they got relegated to bounce back
  • That Villa and Forest were bloody lucky given how much they spent - Villa saved by our ghost goal 😠
  • That we look like a massive outlier so far this current season... Doesn't bode well!

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  • That we look like a massive outlier so far this current season... Doesn't bode well!
So do the Math.
Don't advertise it too much but your chart shows we still have quite alot left to spend.

We haven't made our main signings yet...if we get them as Wilder would say "throw the door" I'm confident we'll have a realistic chance of staying up.
Watch this space.. and judge our chances when the transfers window has closed.
 
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If Hecky came out and said we our business is complete then I’d be worried, but he hasn’t. Every interview he mentions being short of players.

Everyone knows we need more players and they’re trying to bring in more players. Let’s just have a little patience and see what the squad is like on 1st September.
 
YES Blade said:
If Hecky came out and said we our business is complete then I’d be worried, but he hasn’t. Every interview he mentions being short of players.

Everyone knows we need more players and they’re trying to bring in more players. Let’s just have a little patience and see what the squad is like on 1st September.
Click to expand...
Being patient has put us where we are
 
Sheffsteel said:
  • That we look like a massive outlier so far this current season... Doesn't bode well!
So do the Math.
Don't advertise it too much but your chart shows we still have quite alot left to spend.

We haven't made our main signings yet...if we get them as Wilder would say "throw the door" I'm confident we'll have a realistic chance of staying up.
Watch this space.. and judge our chances when the transfers window has closed.
Click to expand...
Man - I hope you’re right
 
Sheffsteel said:
  • That we look like a massive outlier so far this current season... Doesn't bode well!
So do the Math.
Don't advertise it too much but your chart shows we still have quite alot left to spend.

We haven't made our main signings yet...if we get them as Wilder would say "throw the door" I'm confident we'll have a realistic chance of staying up.
Watch this space.. and judge our chances when the transfers window has closed.
Click to expand...

YES Blade said:
If Hecky came out and said we our business is complete then I’d be worried, but he hasn’t. Every interview he mentions being short of players.

Everyone knows we need more players and they’re trying to bring in more players. Let’s just have a little patience and see what the squad is like on 1st September.
Click to expand...
Get a fucking move on! It's 6 days til opening day!

Any signings have missed out on meeting the squad, settling, learning the tactics...
 
Kozzy_is_my_Dad said:
Get a fucking move on! It's 6 days til opening day!

Any signings have missed out on meeting the squad, settling, learning the tactics...
Click to expand...
Chill, remember 06-07, we didn't win a game until the end of September and still only went down by 1 goal. There's a lot of work to be done and football to be played yet.

Patience.
 
Inter_blade83 said:
Chill, remember 06-07, we didn't win a game until the end of September and still only went down by 1 goal.
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I can't see where the one goal that is going to save us this season is going to come from let alone all the other goals and points.
 
BobblesBlade said:
This begs the question. Where has all the money gone/going.
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Presumably we will post a massive profit for this season, as we made very healthy profits in our last two Premier League seasons despite spending a fair amount. It will be very interesting to see how that is used.
 
Kozzy_is_my_Dad said:
Get a fucking move on! It's 6 days til opening day!

Any signings have missed out on meeting the squad, settling, learning the tactics...
Click to expand...

Obviously we’d love to complete all our signings weeks before the start of the season but unfortunately it’s not as simple as that.

We needed to sign 6 or 7 players this window (probably more), it was never realistic to get that all done before the first match.
 
Greg. said:
Out of interest, I had a quick look at spending by newly promoted teams in recent seasons. This uses Transfermarkt figures which are not perfect, but the main source there is about spending.

  • Unfortunately shows there is a pretty decent correlation between spending and staying up (it's been quite rare to spend sub <€40m and stay up (exceptions in recent years are Leicester, Newcastle and Brentford who all had decent teams from memory)
  • That Fulham in 2018-19 was the worst in terms of spending a fortune and still finishing 19th. Luckily they have a loaded owner ($12bn I think nowadays) and so managed to keep Mitrovic and the likes when they got relegated to bounce back
  • That Villa and Forest were bloody lucky given how much they spent - Villa saved by our ghost goal 😠
  • That we look like a massive outlier so far this current season... Doesn't bode well!

View attachment 167300

View attachment 167306
View attachment 167307
Click to expand...
Excellent work mate, however to be more accurate we need to review it after the window closes.
 

It does indicate that to give yourself half a chance you need to spend in excess of £35m nett
 
I can only see this season as a means of the Prince clearing as much of the debt as possible. Clearing the decks and starting a fresh from the champ next season. He hasn't got the money to sustain us in the prem.
 
Greg. said:
Out of interest, I had a quick look at spending by newly promoted teams in recent seasons. This uses Transfermarkt figures which are not perfect, but the main source there is about spending.

  • Unfortunately shows there is a pretty decent correlation between spending and staying up (it's been quite rare to spend sub <€40m and stay up (exceptions in recent years are Leicester, Newcastle and Brentford who all had decent teams from memory)
  • That Fulham in 2018-19 was the worst in terms of spending a fortune and still finishing 19th. Luckily they have a loaded owner ($12bn I think nowadays) and so managed to keep Mitrovic and the likes when they got relegated to bounce back
  • That Villa and Forest were bloody lucky given how much they spent - Villa saved by our ghost goal 😠
  • That we look like a massive outlier so far this current season... Doesn't bode well!

View attachment 167300

View attachment 167306
View attachment 167307
Click to expand...

Shows how truly pathetic the rumoured £15/20 mill budget is/was


I think we may spend a large ammount more than that now that we have seen how bad we are and the reaction to the prince

Nothing crazy just £40 mill would be acceptable in my opinion signing 5/6 players who can walk into our 11 and some good loans would be a decent window IMO
 
George_Forman said:
I can only see this season as a means of the Prince clearing as much of the debt as possible. Clearing the decks and starting a fresh from the champ next season. He hasn't got the money to sustain us in the prem.
Click to expand...

The tv money allows any club to do that if they want too
 
This is interesting, thanks, but I'm not sure how you're calculating the 23/24 prices? For instance, the Bank of England's inflation calculator suggests prices have increased by 31.5% since 2014, but you seem to have calculated an increase of 117%?
 
Working Class Hero said:
Presumably we will post a massive profit for this season, as we made very healthy profits in our last two Premier League seasons despite spending a fair amount. It will be very interesting to see how that is used.
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Player transfer fees aren’t deducted from trading income, only the amount written off their value.

Not saying we won’t see a profit as we did in both PL seasons. Player spending still left is in the shit though.
 
YES Blade said:
Obviously we’d love to complete all our signings weeks before the start of the season but unfortunately it’s not as simple as that.

We needed to sign 6 or 7 players this window (probably more), it was never realistic to get that all done before the first match.
Click to expand...

www.lutontoday.co.uk

Edwards hails 'incredible' support from Luton's board in the transfer window as he targets a 'few more' signings

Town boss has made six new additions so far
www.lutontoday.co.uk www.lutontoday.co.uk

Plus £10m on their ground.
 
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We don't want to get drawn into panic buys like Wilder did, wasting money that set us back years financially, be patient and build for a couple of years in the championship was my view when we came down, but lack of cash due to (already explained) means we're going back with half the players who failed last time, Fleck,Norwood, McBurnie etc, give the new lads time and build steadily
 
Cassius Kray said:
This is interesting, thanks, but I'm not sure how you're calculating the 23/24 prices? For instance, the Bank of England's inflation calculator suggests prices have increased by 31.5% since 2014, but you seem to have calculated an increase of 117%?
Click to expand...

I just used 9% as an annual inflation rate as one article suggested that's been the level in the last decade or so in terms of football transfers - nothing sophisticated!
 

I get the impression that if we could loan 5 or 6 players, then we would.
 
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