Statistics The subsequent fate of losing play off finalists

[Shadota]

No idea if this has been looked at before, but considering our current predicament, I found it interesting to look up. I've gone through the previous 35 play off finals (1990-2024) for the 2nd tier of English football (Division 2/Division 1/Championship depending on year), and looked at how the losing finalist has performed in the following season.

The 1990 final is something of a red herring. Swindon won the final against Sunderland, but were deemed ineligible for the top division due to financial irregularities, meaning Sunderland were promoted in their place. Sunderland were relegated from the top division by virtue of a 19th placed finish. Meanwhile, Swindon finished 21st in the 2nd tier, avoiding relegation by 2 points. Given that my focus was specifically on the team who lost the play off final, I have included Sunderland's performance in the following season, with an asterisk to denote them.

For the 35 teams overall, I noted the following performance the season after losing the play off final. Please be aware that the year noted against each team below, is the year they lost in the play offs. To use the first team listed as an example, Sunderland lost the PO final in '98, but went on to automatic promotion (and actually winning the league) the following season.

Promoted (Autos): 5 teams (Sunderland '98, West Brom '07, Reading '11, Middlesbrough '15, Leeds '24)
Promoted (Playoffs): 5 teams (Leicester '93, Palace '96, West Ham '04, Aston Villa '18, Brentford '20)
Lost PO Final: 1 team (Leicester '92)
Lost PO SF: 5 teams (Blades '97, Bolton '99, Preston '05, Cardiff '10, S6 '16)
Mid-table Finish (7th-21st): 16 teams (Derby '94, Reading '95, Barnsley '00, Preston '01, Norwich '02, Blades '03, Bristol C '08, Blades '09, Blackpool '12, Watford '13, Derby '14, Reading '17, Derby '19, Swansea '21, Huddersfield '22, Coventry '23)
Relegated: 3* teams (Sunderland '90*, Brighton '91, Leeds '06)

If we fail to improve our current position, and get relegated to League 1 as a result, I think it would undoubtedly be the worst post play-off defeat hangover any club has had at this level. Brighton in the early 90s cannot really be compared to modern football, as so much has changed. It is worth noting however that after their play-off loss, they did sell their 2 best players, and didn't really plug the gaps. Meanwhile, Leeds in '06 went into administration that season. Now, it should be noted that the points deduction from admin is not why they went down (deducted 10 points, finished 13 points from safety), but the chaos around the club as a result was what did it for them. They were a team completely reliant on loans to fill out a squad (14 different loan signings across the season according to Wikipedia). Meanwhile, we were able to (allegedly) make a signing for more money than we've ever spent on one player while at this level (Cannon), then make a number of signings for not insignificant fees this summer. And yet we're currently on course for jaunts round the likes of Wycombe, Burton and Northampton next year.

As a final aside; I had no reason for writing this out other than boredom whilst I'm at work - very little to do today, and my mind is prone to wandering even when I'm busy. It just happened to land on this topic on this occasion. Feel free to discuss as you wish though

 

[vas borbokis]

Just seen this. A shame all your research didn't get more response at the time. I think it likely well be in the mood table group but I'm seeing some ongoing improvement which is it continues could see us near playoff territory.

 

[N20 Blade]

No idea if this has been looked at before, but considering our current predicament, I found it interesting to look up. I've gone through the previous 35 play off finals (1990-2024) for the 2nd tier of English football (Division 2/Division 1/Championship depending on year), and looked at how the losing finalist has performed in the following season.

The 1990 final is something of a red herring. Swindon won the final against Sunderland, but were deemed ineligible for the top division due to financial irregularities, meaning Sunderland were promoted in their place. Sunderland were relegated from the top division by virtue of a 19th placed finish. Meanwhile, Swindon finished 21st in the 2nd tier, avoiding relegation by 2 points. Given that my focus was specifically on the team who lost the play off final, I have included Sunderland's performance in the following season, with an asterisk to denote them.

For the 35 teams overall, I noted the following performance the season after losing the play off final. Please be aware that the year noted against each team below, is the year they lost in the play offs. To use the first team listed as an example, Sunderland lost the PO final in '98, but went on to automatic promotion (and actually winning the league) the following season.

Promoted (Autos): 5 teams (Sunderland '98, West Brom '07, Reading '11, Middlesbrough '15, Leeds '24)
Promoted (Playoffs): 5 teams (Leicester '93, Palace '96, West Ham '04, Aston Villa '18, Brentford '20)
Lost PO Final: 1 team (Leicester '92)
Lost PO SF: 5 teams (Blades '97, Bolton '99, Preston '05, Cardiff '10, S6 '16)
Mid-table Finish (7th-21st): 16 teams (Derby '94, Reading '95, Barnsley '00, Preston '01, Norwich '02, Blades '03, Bristol C '08, Blades '09, Blackpool '12, Watford '13, Derby '14, Reading '17, Derby '19, Swansea '21, Huddersfield '22, Coventry '23)
Relegated: 3* teams (Sunderland '90*, Brighton '91, Leeds '06)

If we fail to improve our current position, and get relegated to League 1 as a result, I think it would undoubtedly be the worst post play-off defeat hangover any club has had at this level. Brighton in the early 90s cannot really be compared to modern football, as so much has changed. It is worth noting however that after their play-off loss, they did sell their 2 best players, and didn't really plug the gaps. Meanwhile, Leeds in '06 went into administration that season. Now, it should be noted that the points deduction from admin is not why they went down (deducted 10 points, finished 13 points from safety), but the chaos around the club as a result was what did it for them. They were a team completely reliant on loans to fill out a squad (14 different loan signings across the season according to Wikipedia). Meanwhile, we were able to (allegedly) make a signing for more money than we've ever spent on one player while at this level (Cannon), then make a number of signings for not insignificant fees this summer. And yet we're currently on course for jaunts round the likes of Wycombe, Burton and Northampton next year.

As a final aside; I had no reason for writing this out other than boredom whilst I'm at work - very little to do today, and my mind is prone to wandering even when I'm busy. It just happened to land on this topic on this occasion. Feel free to discuss as you wish though

Great research, thank you, Shadota

It confirms my impression, that the season after the Palace defeat, was our best response, and with a fair wind i.e. not selling our best players and losing Spackman, that team was good enough to get promoted (and so good to watch).

By chopping Wilder, appointing Selles, sacking Selles, re-hiring Wilder, we blew any post play off positives / advantages out of the water, so we are now in a mess (less of a mess than you wrote this, but let's not get carried away). What is more, the league is awful this season. Another blown opportunity.

Also, no recollection of Brighton in 91, will have to google that!!

 

[FMBlade1]

Excellent work and well worth putting together.

Although it was 2 seasons after, I attribute our 2011 relegation to the play-off failure in 2009.

The affect of losing is so damaging, if not immediate after that for the most part.

 

[Shadota]

Excellent work and well worth putting together.

Although it was 2 seasons after, I attribute our 2011 relegation to the play-off failure in 2009.

The affect of losing is so damaging, if not immediate after that for the most part.

I certainly think the fallout of that loss was ultimately a contributing factor.

I reckon there are a few teams in there that went down to L1 within 2 or 3 seasons of a loss in the final. Huddersfield being the most recent example, but I'm sure there are more than that.