Points Required For Survival

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Punk Blade

Punk Blade

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There has been some debate recently around the difference between being mathematically safe (can no longer finish in the bottom three regardless of remaining results) and being effectively safe (we have more points now than the 18th placed team will have in the final table). This led to a few posters asking what are the actual required points for survival based on the current league table. I had a go at answering this, but thought it may be of interest to have a separate thread and track the movement as the run-in unfolds.

The approach is to allow for the two teams with the lowest possible points total (currently Norwich and Watford) and any teams already safe (Liverpool) to lose to everyone else, and have most of the games between the other teams finish with a winner, to maximise the points pool for those teams. After filling out the remaining results it was possible to move the lowest points totals up slightly by factoring in a few draws.

At this stage, 2nd to 18th (and who they are in my table is irrelevant as they could just about be anyone) can be separated by just three points, from 58 in 2nd down to 12 teams on 55 points. It may be possible to have more teams on 56-58 and fewer on 55, but there aren't enough points left in the 56-58 bracket to redistribute to the group on 55 to bring 18th up to 56, so as of right now, 56 points is the golden number to be guaranteed Premier League football next season and only Liverpool have passed this mark already.

To keep our destiny entirely in our own hands, we need 17 points from the remaining 36 on offer, which works out at 1.42 points per game, slightly lower than our current PPG over the season to date of 1.5. Here's the full table:

1581444250714.png
 

there are flaws in your maths

we are safe now as the bottom 4 wont get within 18 points of 56
unless they are allowed to play barcelona psg bayern and juventus in their stead
 
17th 18th 19th and 20th are averaging a point per game or less
this indicates a maximum of 38 points
Norwich would have to play 300 per cent better
 
44 points : but we should exceed that.

With our goal difference we can relax on 43
 
Dunno how accurate the maths is but, practically surely it cannot be applied to the league situation.

It may be 55 points to be mathematically safe at this stage but it definitely won’t be that at the end of the season. There are way too many variables to put anything like a definitive number on it. It would be impossible for all of those teams requiring 2 points a game to achieve that given that a lot of them will have to play each other. That’s before we even consider the fact that teams who have been shite for over half a season are suddenly going to have to come into Liverpool type form.

If we are to get 17 points between now and the end of the season, not only will that see is confidently in mid-table, it would also assume we’ve taken points off those towards the bottom, thus putting further distance between us and them.
 
Punk Blade said:
🤦‍♂️ Read the first sentence again.
Click to expand...

Appreciate the effort but it’s a waste of effort
It’s like doing a long report proving how we can win the league.
We can theoretically gain 76 points if we win every match and Liverpool lose every match..they finish on 73 points.
So Liverpool still need another 4 points to gaurantee finishing above us.

Can you see the talk of us being relegated or winning the league is so unlikely that it’s pie in the sky.
Its like making a long list planning ahead of what you’d buy if you ever won a few million on the lottery.
 

I am a pessimist/realist about Utd, based on many years of finding new ways of failing, 13-year curse, and the rest, but even I, accepting that your statistical analysis may well be correct, am now assuming that it is a theoretical possibility rather than a guide to survival. On Sunday I joined in 'The Blades are staying up', convinced that we are now to all intents and purposes safe. I did allow myself a silent addition at the end of each line of 'though there is a theoretical possibility of us going down' - it's not a version I expect to catch on, though!
 
Punk Blade said:
There has been some debate recently around the difference between being mathematically safe (can no longer finish in the bottom three regardless of remaining results) and being effectively safe (we have more points now than the 18th placed team will have in the final table). This led to a few posters asking what are the actual required points for survival based on the current league table. I had a go at answering this, but thought it may be of interest to have a separate thread and track the movement as the run-in unfolds.

The approach is to allow for the two teams with the lowest possible points total (currently Norwich and Watford) and any teams already safe (Liverpool) to lose to everyone else, and have most of the games between the other teams finish with a winner, to maximise the points pool for those teams. After filling out the remaining results it was possible to move the lowest points totals up slightly by factoring in a few draws.

At this stage, 2nd to 18th (and who they are in my table is irrelevant as they could just about be anyone) can be separated by just three points, from 58 in 2nd down to 12 teams on 55 points. It may be possible to have more teams on 56-58 and fewer on 55, but there aren't enough points left in the 56-58 bracket to redistribute to the group on 55 to bring 18th up to 56, so as of right now, 56 points is the golden number to be guaranteed Premier League football next season and only Liverpool have passed this mark already.

To keep our destiny entirely in our own hands, we need 17 points from the remaining 36 on offer, which works out at 1.42 points per game, slightly lower than our current PPG over the season to date of 1.5. Here's the full table:

View attachment 71281
Click to expand...

Well I appreciate the effort to look at it all purely from a mathematics point of view. 👍🏻
 
HodgysBrokenThumb said:
even I... am now assuming that it is a theoretical possibility rather than a guide to survival.
Click to expand...

That's exactly what it is. Punk Blade isn't saying we will need 56 points to stay up, only that at the moment 56 points is a good guess for the number of points needed to be certain.

As the matches go by, that total will go down and our points total will go up, until there comes a point when we are mathematically certain.

I think it's an interesting thing to track, although it'd different from saying "how many points will we need to stay up".
 
try this stat , no club in the entire past of the premier league ie since 93 4 , has finished lower than 10th when being 5th with 12 games to go

not even with 3 points for a win in a 38 game season
 
That seems really high. Are you taking into account that teams who have to play each other can't both win?
 
Punk Blade said:
There has been some debate recently around the difference between being mathematically safe (can no longer finish in the bottom three regardless of remaining results) and being effectively safe (we have more points now than the 18th placed team will have in the final table). This led to a few posters asking what are the actual required points for survival based on the current league table. I had a go at answering this, but thought it may be of interest to have a separate thread and track the movement as the run-in unfolds.

The approach is to allow for the two teams with the lowest possible points total (currently Norwich and Watford) and any teams already safe (Liverpool) to lose to everyone else, and have most of the games between the other teams finish with a winner, to maximise the points pool for those teams. After filling out the remaining results it was possible to move the lowest points totals up slightly by factoring in a few draws.

At this stage, 2nd to 18th (and who they are in my table is irrelevant as they could just about be anyone) can be separated by just three points, from 58 in 2nd down to 12 teams on 55 points. It may be possible to have more teams on 56-58 and fewer on 55, but there aren't enough points left in the 56-58 bracket to redistribute to the group on 55 to bring 18th up to 56, so as of right now, 56 points is the golden number to be guaranteed Premier League football next season and only Liverpool have passed this mark already.

To keep our destiny entirely in our own hands, we need 17 points from the remaining 36 on offer, which works out at 1.42 points per game, slightly lower than our current PPG over the season to date of 1.5. Here's the full table:

View attachment 71281
Click to expand...
I've never seen anyone try to do this before and with either 2 or 3 points available from each game depending on results it looks bloody hard to do from this far out, so kudos for giving it a go

Good to see the number fall as the season progresses and I'll happily toast the actual safety date when it arrives

Slow day in the office ?
 
Punk Blade said:
There has been some debate recently around the difference between being mathematically safe (can no longer finish in the bottom three regardless of remaining results) and being effectively safe (we have more points now than the 18th placed team will have in the final table). This led to a few posters asking what are the actual required points for survival based on the current league table. I had a go at answering this, but thought it may be of interest to have a separate thread and track the movement as the run-in unfolds.

The approach is to allow for the two teams with the lowest possible points total (currently Norwich and Watford) and any teams already safe (Liverpool) to lose to everyone else, and have most of the games between the other teams finish with a winner, to maximise the points pool for those teams. After filling out the remaining results it was possible to move the lowest points totals up slightly by factoring in a few draws.

At this stage, 2nd to 18th (and who they are in my table is irrelevant as they could just about be anyone) can be separated by just three points, from 58 in 2nd down to 12 teams on 55 points. It may be possible to have more teams on 56-58 and fewer on 55, but there aren't enough points left in the 56-58 bracket to redistribute to the group on 55 to bring 18th up to 56, so as of right now, 56 points is the golden number to be guaranteed Premier League football next season and only Liverpool have passed this mark already.

To keep our destiny entirely in our own hands, we need 17 points from the remaining 36 on offer, which works out at 1.42 points per game, slightly lower than our current PPG over the season to date of 1.5. Here's the full table:

View attachment 71281
Click to expand...

I tried answering it a different way yesterday. I built a predictor model and ran about 10,000,000 iterations, changing our results until I found a point where zero iterations had us in the bottom three. I got the same answer as you - 56 points needed. That will obviously change after the next game week - if results ‘go our way’, then the required points will come down, potentially by more than 3. By my reckoning, we could be mathematically safe after three more games.
 
blade67 said:
I've never seen anyone try to do this before and with either 2 or 3 points available from each game depending on results it looks bloody hard to do from this far out, so kudos for giving it a go

Good to see the number fall as the season progresses and I'll happily toast the actual safety date when it arrives

Slow day in the office ?
Click to expand...
Slow weekend of football! After doing a really quick version and estimating 55 last week I was curious if I could get it any higher and had some time to spare.
 

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