Leeds’ comical collapse at the end of last season (which we all laughed at the time) is, in my view, one of the reasons we’ve not been promoted this year. The top three were clearly the best sides in 23/24 even though Leeds fell back to just a 3 point gap above 4th place after their awful end to the season. They’ve then carried on spending big money (their payments on agents’ fees in the last two transfer windows has been in line with the top half of the premier league and 10x the championship average).
So we’ve been up against two top quality sides this year instead of one, trying to get 103 points; I don’t think Southampton would have been as impressive. 90 points (even with the -2) is often enough to get promoted, but was a long way off this year.
Now that the gap to the premier league is so wide, the play-offs seems to add another small advantage to the sides from the top division, as the 3rd team going up to face them may not even be one of the top 4 or 5 sides in the championship. Just another small thing slightly weighted in favour of maintaining the status quo.
This season has been a carbon copy of last year’s championship in some ways, with us playing the exact role that Leeds played. Of course, if we slip up in the play-offs, like Leeds last year, we should be looking to emulate their performance in the following season - but the challenge might then be whether we could spend like they have. On top of this it seems extremely unlikely any of Ipswich, Southampton or Leicester will ‘do a Luton’. So the job next year could well be harder, and if we’re not in a position to outspend people next year, then this play off campaign becomes extremely important to the club’s future success.