Play Off records

[raul]

Indeed Fleety. Blackwell performed a minor miracle that year.

 

[Kenilworth]

Here's a crumb of comfort. Since 3rd tier play offs began in their present form in 1989, the 3rd place team has won them most often. The winners have been

3rd: 8
6th: 6
4th: 5
5th: 4

NB, in 1991 4th-7th contested to the play offs, so for that season, 4th is counted as 3rd, 5th as 4th etc.

Not really cos if 6th place wins it again this year then the gap between the 3rd placed team winning the POF and 6th place winning it is only 1

That actually makes me less optimistic and I was just looking for my confidence in the toilet a few moments ago

 

[Balham Blade]

Having done a quick bit of research:

2010-11
1st: Brighton 95
2nd: Southampton 92
3rd: Huddersfield 87 - lost final
4th: Peterborough 79 - won play offs
5th: MK Dons 77
6th: Bournemouth 71

2009-10
1st: Norwich 95
2nd: Leeds 86
3rd: Millwall 85 - won play offs
4th: Charlton 84
5th: Swindon 82 - lost final
6th: Huddersfield 80

2008-09
1st: Leicester 96
2nd: Peterborough 89
3rd: MK Dons 87
4th: Leeds 84
5th: Millwall 82 - lost final
6th: Scunthorpe 76 - won play offs

2007-08
1st: Swansea 92
2nd: Forest 82
3rd: Doncaster 80 - won play offs
4th: Carlisle 80
5th: Leeds 76* (10pt deduction for being financial cheats) - lost final
6th: Southend 76

2006-07
1st: Scunthorpe 91
2nd: Bristol C 85
3rd: Blackpool 83 - won play offs
4th: Forest 82
5th: Yeovil 79 - lost final
6th: Oldham 75

2005-06
1st: Southend 82
2nd: Colchester 79
3rd: Brentford 76
4th: Huddersfield 73
5th: Barnsley 72 - won play offs
6th; Swansea 71 - lost final

2004-05
1st: Luton 98
2nd: Hull 86
3rd: Tranmere 79
4th: Brentford 75
5th: Wednesday 72 - won play offs
6th: Hartlepool 71 - lost final

The facts from the last 7 seasons:

1. The team finishing 3rd has won the play offs 3 times
2. The team finishing 6th has won the play offs once, 5th twice and 4th once.
3. The gap between 3rd and 6th this season (17 points) is the biggest of the last 8 years
4. The teams in the play offs usually finished the season much closer: only last year looks similar to this year.
5. The team finishing 4th has only reached one final: last year. This would suggest that MK Dons are more likely to get to the final.
6. The team finishing 3rd played in 4 finals, winning the semi on penalties once.
7. The team finishing 6th has played in 3 finals - but needed penalties on two of those occasions to get there.

3rd v 6th record:

3rd: 3 wins
Penalties: 3
6th: 1 win

None of this has given me any comfort. I still think the current system needs an overhaul.

 

[BladeFisher]

Having done a quick bit of research:

2010-11
1st: Brighton 95
2nd: Southampton 92
3rd: Huddersfield 87 - lost final
4th: Peterborough 79 - won play offs
5th: MK Dons 77
6th: Bournemouth 71

2009-10
1st: Norwich 95
2nd: Leeds 86
3rd: Millwall 85 - won play offs
4th: Charlton 84
5th: Swindon 82 - lost final
6th: Huddersfield 80

2008-09
1st: Leicester 96
2nd: Peterborough 89
3rd: MK Dons 87
4th: Leeds 84
5th: Millwall 82 - lost final
6th: Scunthorpe 76 - won play offs

2007-08
1st: Swansea 92
2nd: Forest 82
3rd: Doncaster 80 - won play offs
4th: Carlisle 80
5th: Leeds 76* (10pt deduction for being financial cheats) - lost final
6th: Southend 76

2006-07
1st: Scunthorpe 91
2nd: Bristol C 85
3rd: Blackpool 83 - won play offs
4th: Forest 82
5th: Yeovil 79 - lost final
6th: Oldham 75

2005-06
1st: Southend 82
2nd: Colchester 79
3rd: Brentford 76
4th: Huddersfield 73
5th: Barnsley 72 - won play offs
6th; Swansea 71 - lost final

2004-05
1st: Luton 98
2nd: Hull 86
3rd: Tranmere 79
4th: Brentford 75
5th: Wednesday 72 - won play offs
6th: Hartlepool 71 - lost final

The facts from the last 7 seasons:

1. The team finishing 3rd has won the play offs 3 times
2. The team finishing 6th has won the play offs once, 5th twice and 4th once.
3. The gap between 3rd and 6th this season (17 points) is the biggest of the last 8 years
4. The teams in the play offs usually finished the season much closer: only last year looks similar to this year.
5. The team finishing 4th has only reached one final: last year. This would suggest that MK Dons are more likely to get to the final.
6. The team finishing 3rd played in 4 finals, winning the semi on penalties once.
7. The team finishing 6th has played in 3 finals - but needed penalties on two of those occasions to get there.

3rd v 6th record:


3rd: 3 wins
Penalties: 3
6th: 1 win

None of this has given me any comfort. I still think the current system needs an overhaul.

Yeah but the interesting thing is the team that finshed 2nd. Usually been garbage with the exception of the Saints! Now are Wednesday shite? Altogether now

 

[Jim Chimmerney]

As you can imagine, I'm surrounded by bouyant Blackpool fans ready for tonight. Friday was apparently their 10th consecutive victory in play-off games !

 

[Sothall_Blade]

Danny Wilson's record in the play-offs nearly as bad as ours.
3 play-offs, 2 Finals, zero goals in Finals, zero promotions...

All such records have to come to an end.....

 

[Jim Chimmerney]

Danny Wilson's record in the play-offs nearly as bad as ours.
3 play-offs, 2 Finals, zero goals in Finals, zero promotions...

All such records have to come to an end.....

True, but didn't our Neil have a 100% play-off victory record before 2003. Not sure whether that helps

 

[Selly]

Oh FFS, Darren had his positions in number of times won order, not postition order...

Championship
3rd: 9
4th: 3
5th: 6
6th: 5

League 2
4th: 12
5th: 4
6th: 5
7th: 2[/quote]

Basically, dont finish 4th...

 

[Balham Blade]

Yeah but the interesting thing is the team that finshed 2nd. Usually been garbage with the exception of the Saints! Now are Wednesday shite? Altogether now

They're going for a double promotion, haven't you heard?

Sort the foundations out lads before you build your castle...

 

[rachyblade]

Imagine the party though..... if we won at Wembley..... goose bumps.

 

[oldblade]

So we're the only side to have been in as many finals and never scored. Sorry, never even looked like scoring!

Wouldn't go that far. In 2003 Page missed an absolute sitter and we had a penalty which was saved.

 

[fishpie]

As you can imagine, I'm surrounded by bouyant Blackpool fans ready for tonight. Friday was apparently their 10th consecutive victory in play-off games !

Apparently (think I heard right on R5 tonight) Blackpool have got promoted from all 3 divisions via the Play Offs..I'd settle for a segment of that tangerine dream!

 

[metalblade]

FFS another tin pot Lancashire team going for the top flight with the likes of Wigan and the shitty little mill towns of Blackburn, Bolton, Burnley etc makes you want to weep to think we can't compete with shit like these.

 

[fishpie]

FFS another tin pot Lancashire team going for the top flight with the likes of Wigan and the shitty little mill towns of Blackburn, Bolton, Burnley etc makes you want to weep to think we can't compete with shit like these.

ltar
Metalblade, I appreciate your sentiments.. But we've got smaller fish to fry..Bury, Rochdale, Morecambe and Accrington effing Stanley or whoever. .The likes of Wigan and Bolton deserve my respect. They've done it (recently), we haven't..Doesn't make me weep.. We know we're bigger and better, and we will be again

 

[fishpie]

FFS another tin pot Lancashire team going for the top flight with the likes of Wigan and the shitty little mill towns of Blackburn, Bolton, Burnley etc makes you want to weep to think we can't compete with shit like these.

ltar
Metalblade, I appreciate your sentiments.. But we've got smaller fish to fry..Bury, Rochdale, Morecambe and Accrington effing Stanley or whoever. .The likes of Wigan and Bolton deserve my respect. They've done it (recently), we haven't..Doesn't make me weep.. We know we're bigger and better, and we will be again
Soz for DP..I'm new on here, and a bit thick

 

[Selly]

Wouldn't go that far. In 2003 Page missed an absolute sitter and we had a penalty which was saved.

And Tonge had a free kick that was tipped onto the post.

All after the penalty miss.

Score the penalty, the game becomes a different kettle of fish...

 

[Blade nath]

Stop dwelling on past games, stats, and figures. This is a different team with a different playing style and a different manager. Get behind the team and show a bit of faith FFS.

 

[Darren]

Oh FFS, Darren had his positions in number of times won order, not postition order...

Championship
3rd: 9
4th: 3
5th: 6
6th: 5

League 2
4th: 12
5th: 4
6th: 5
7th: 2

Basically, dont finish 4th...[/quote]

Interesting. So on 69 occassions over all 3 divisions the team finishing highest has won the play offs 30 times - i.e. 43% of time - significantly higher than a 1 in 4 chance.

Overall the percentage success rate for all 4 positions is:

3rd (4th in D4): 43%
4th (5th in D4): 17%
5th (6th in D4): 22%
6th (7th in D4): 18%

Contrary to myth then, the top placed team is far more likely to win the play offs then any of the others and there isn't much difference between finishing in the other 3 positions.

 

[Selly]

Interesting. So on 69 occassions over all 3 divisions the team finishing highest has won the play offs 30 times - i.e. 43% of time - significantly higher than a 1 in 4 chance.

Overall the percentage success rate for all 4 positions is:

3rd (4th in D4): 43%
4th (5th in D4): 17%
5th (6th in D4): 22%
6th (7th in D4): 18%

Contrary to myth then, the top placed team is far more likely to win the play offs then any of the others and there isn't much difference between finishing in the other 3 positions.

League 2 does skew the figures somewhat. Bearing in mind that the PO places are a place lower I wonder if this has a significance.

 

[Highbury_Blade]

Having done a quick bit of research:


None of this has given me any comfort. I still think the current system needs an overhaul.

Agree totally. The system needs to be sorted so that the odds are stacked in favour of the 3rd place team.

 

[Selly]

Agree totally. The system needs to be sorted so that the odds are stacked in favour of the 3rd place team.

Agree.

• Put them straight into the final
• A maxuimum of 3 other clubs play off for the "honour" to play them. Only teams (up to a maximum of 3) within 10 points of the 3rd placed team enter the playoffs. If this means the 3rd placed team go up, so be it.

 

[BladeFisher]

Agree.

• Put them straight into the final
• A maxuimum of 3 other clubs play off for the "honour" to play them. Only teams (up to a maximum of 3) within 10 points of the 3rd placed team enter the playoffs. If this means the 3rd placed team go up, so be it.

But its all about the money though SOB isn't it? Can't see the League altering the "money making" formula even if it is unjust.

One problem with 6 v 5, then winners v 4, then winners v 3 is the trade off between playing games and being stale. How often do we hear, oh we lost today because we've had two weeks without a game versus oh well we lost because the other lot were fresher from the rest they received. It would be interesting to find out what sort of stats exist on that one, but no doubt would take yonks of research to get an answer.

 

[Darren]

But its all about the money though SOB isn't it? Can't see the League altering the "money making" formula even if it is unjust.

One problem with 6 v 5, then winners v 4, then winners v 3 is the trade off between playing games and being stale. How often do we hear, oh we lost today because we've had two weeks without a game versus oh well we lost because the other lot were fresher from the rest they received. It would be interesting to find out what sort of stats exist on that one, but no doubt would take yonks of research to get an answer.

League 2 does skew the figures somewhat. Bearing in mind that the PO places are a place lower I wonder if this has a significance.

I don't think so. The myth about 3rd (or 4th place in D4) is that, having just missed out on automatic, the 3rd place team will be psychologically shot in contrast to the 6th (or 7th) placed team who will be elated just to get in the play offs. The stats show that to be nonsense.

 

[Selly]

But its all about the money though SOB isn't it? Can't see the League altering the "money making" formula even if it is unjust.

One problem with 6 v 5, then winners v 4, then winners v 3 is the trade off between playing games and being stale. How often do we hear, oh we lost today because we've had two weeks without a game versus oh well we lost because the other lot were fresher from the rest they received. It would be interesting to find out what sort of stats exist on that one, but no doubt would take yonks of research to get an answer.

If we get through to the final, we will have 12 days without a game, the other finalists will have 11 days.

In the above construct, 5th would play 6th (at 5th ground) tonight, the winners would play at 4ths ground on Monday. The winner would play at 3rds ground a week on Saturday.

The logistical problem is the selling of Tickets for the 5th v 6th fixture. The other fixtures, the home fans can but their tickets in advance as they know they will be playing a home game that day (just not who will be playing). there would obviously be a lot fewer away tickets to sell.

At this stage of the season, a 2 week rest would, I suspect, be preferable to having to play an extra game to get to the final.

But you are correct, its all about the ££££

 

[Selly]

I don't think so. The myth about 3rd (or 4th place in D4) is that, having just missed out on automatic, the 3rd place team will be psychologically shot in contrast to the 6th (or 7th) placed team who will be elated just to get in the play offs. The stats show that to be nonsense.

The stats may show that theory to be nonsense, but my pont about div 4 stands.

The question is:

Is the gap in ability between the team who finish 4th in L2 and the team who finish 5th/6th/7th, bigger than the gap between the team who finish 3rd in L1/champ and teh team who finish 4th/5th/6th.

The stats would seem to suggest that that is the case, especially as the team who finished 7th have only ever won the PO twice in L2...

 

[Darren]

The stats may show that theory to be nonsense, but my pont about div 4 stands.

The question is:

Is the gap in ability between the team who finish 4th in L2 and the team who finish 5th/6th/7th, bigger than the gap between the team who finish 3rd in L1/champ and teh team who finish 4th/5th/6th.

The stats would seem to suggest that that is the case, especially as the team who finished 7th have only ever won the PO twice in L2...

Well you would have to work out the average points gap between 3rd and 6th in D2 and D3 and 4th and 7th in D4. Intuitively you would not think there was that much difference. For example, this season the gap between 3rd and 6th in D3 was 17 points and between 4th and 7th in D4 11 points, which would suggest that 7th in D4 have more chance of winning than 6th in D3.

 

[Selly]

Well you would have to work out the average points gap between 3rd and 6th in D2 and D3 and 4th and 7th in D4. Intuitively you would not think there was that much difference. For example, this season the gap between 3rd and 6th in D3 was 17 points and between 4th and 7th in D4 11 points, which would suggest that 7th in D4 have more chance of winning than 6th in D3.

This year yes. Other years who knows. I haven`t got time to work out the averages...

2000 posts - every single one a gem (ish)

 

[Jim Chimmerney]

Apparently (think I heard right on R5 tonight) Blackpool have got promoted from all 3 divisions via the Play Offs..I'd settle for a segment of that tangerine dream!

Indeed, in fact I think they went from Div 3 to the Prem and didn't finish higher than 5th in any season.

Said it before, it's all about attitude, the fans believe they'll win these games, the manager does and the team play without fear. I didn't think they'd get past Brum over two legs and now I think WHam will be too strong for them but you never can back against them in these games.

 

[Darren]

This year yes. Other years who knows. I haven`t got time to work out the averages...

2000 posts - every single one a gem (ish)

Done it for you...

Average point gap between first and last placed play off qualifier 1988-89 - 2010-11

D2: 7.7
D3: 8.0
D4: 7.4

So virtually no difference at all. Another SOB theory bites the dust

 

[oldblade]

FFS another tin pot Lancashire team going for the top flight with the likes of Wigan and the shitty little mill towns of Blackburn, Bolton, Burnley etc makes you want to weep to think we can't compete with shit like these.

Any side that gets to the premier league is not really "tin pot".