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Here's a crumb of comfort. Since 3rd tier play offs began in their present form in 1989, the 3rd place team has won them most often. The winners have been
3rd: 8
6th: 6
4th: 5
5th: 4
NB, in 1991 4th-7th contested to the play offs, so for that season, 4th is counted as 3rd, 5th as 4th etc.
Having done a quick bit of research:
2010-11
1st: Brighton 95
2nd: Southampton 92
3rd: Huddersfield 87 - lost final
4th: Peterborough 79 - won play offs
5th: MK Dons 77
6th: Bournemouth 71
2009-10
1st: Norwich 95
2nd: Leeds 86
3rd: Millwall 85 - won play offs
4th: Charlton 84
5th: Swindon 82 - lost final
6th: Huddersfield 80
2008-09
1st: Leicester 96
2nd: Peterborough 89
3rd: MK Dons 87
4th: Leeds 84
5th: Millwall 82 - lost final
6th: Scunthorpe 76 - won play offs
2007-08
1st: Swansea 92
2nd: Forest 82
3rd: Doncaster 80 - won play offs
4th: Carlisle 80
5th: Leeds 76* (10pt deduction for being financial cheats) - lost final
6th: Southend 76
2006-07
1st: Scunthorpe 91
2nd: Bristol C 85
3rd: Blackpool 83 - won play offs
4th: Forest 82
5th: Yeovil 79 - lost final
6th: Oldham 75
2005-06
1st: Southend 82
2nd: Colchester 79
3rd: Brentford 76
4th: Huddersfield 73
5th: Barnsley 72 - won play offs
6th; Swansea 71 - lost final
2004-05
1st: Luton 98
2nd: Hull 86
3rd: Tranmere 79
4th: Brentford 75
5th: Wednesday 72 - won play offs
6th: Hartlepool 71 - lost final
The facts from the last 7 seasons:
3rd v 6th record:
- The team finishing 3rd has won the play offs 3 times
- The team finishing 6th has won the play offs once, 5th twice and 4th once.
- The gap between 3rd and 6th this season (17 points) is the biggest of the last 8 years
- The teams in the play offs usually finished the season much closer: only last year looks similar to this year.
- The team finishing 4th has only reached one final: last year. This would suggest that MK Dons are more likely to get to the final.
- The team finishing 3rd played in 4 finals, winning the semi on penalties once.
- The team finishing 6th has played in 3 finals - but needed penalties on two of those occasions to get there.
3rd: 3 wins
Penalties: 3
6th: 1 win
None of this has given me any comfort. I still think the current system needs an overhaul.
Danny Wilson's record in the play-offs nearly as bad as ours.
3 play-offs, 2 Finals, zero goals in Finals, zero promotions...
All such records have to come to an end.....
Yeah but the interesting thing is the team that finshed 2nd. Usually been garbage with the exception of the Saints! Now are Wednesday shite? Altogether now
So we're the only side to have been in as many finals and never scored. Sorry, never even looked like scoring!
Apparently (think I heard right on R5 tonight) Blackpool have got promoted from all 3 divisions via the Play Offs..I'd settle for a segment of that tangerine dream!As you can imagine, I'm surrounded by bouyant Blackpool fans ready for tonight. Friday was apparently their 10th consecutive victory in play-off games !
ltarFFS another tin pot Lancashire team going for the top flight with the likes of Wigan and the shitty little mill towns of Blackburn, Bolton, Burnley etc makes you want to weep to think we can't compete with shit like these.
ltarFFS another tin pot Lancashire team going for the top flight with the likes of Wigan and the shitty little mill towns of Blackburn, Bolton, Burnley etc makes you want to weep to think we can't compete with shit like these.
Wouldn't go that far. In 2003 Page missed an absolute sitter and we had a penalty which was saved.
Oh FFS, Darren had his positions in number of times won order, not postition order...
Championship
3rd: 9
4th: 3
5th: 6
6th: 5
League 2
4th: 12
5th: 4
6th: 5
7th: 2
Interesting. So on 69 occassions over all 3 divisions the team finishing highest has won the play offs 30 times - i.e. 43% of time - significantly higher than a 1 in 4 chance.
Overall the percentage success rate for all 4 positions is:
3rd (4th in D4): 43%
4th (5th in D4): 17%
5th (6th in D4): 22%
6th (7th in D4): 18%
Contrary to myth then, the top placed team is far more likely to win the play offs then any of the others and there isn't much difference between finishing in the other 3 positions.
Having done a quick bit of research:
None of this has given me any comfort. I still think the current system needs an overhaul.
Agree totally. The system needs to be sorted so that the odds are stacked in favour of the 3rd place team.
Agree.
- Put them straight into the final
- A maxuimum of 3 other clubs play off for the "honour" to play them. Only teams (up to a maximum of 3) within 10 points of the 3rd placed team enter the playoffs. If this means the 3rd placed team go up, so be it.
But its all about the money though SOB isn't it? Can't see the League altering the "money making" formula even if it is unjust.
One problem with 6 v 5, then winners v 4, then winners v 3 is the trade off between playing games and being stale. How often do we hear, oh we lost today because we've had two weeks without a game versus oh well we lost because the other lot were fresher from the rest they received. It would be interesting to find out what sort of stats exist on that one, but no doubt would take yonks of research to get an answer.
League 2 does skew the figures somewhat. Bearing in mind that the PO places are a place lower I wonder if this has a significance.
But its all about the money though SOB isn't it? Can't see the League altering the "money making" formula even if it is unjust.
One problem with 6 v 5, then winners v 4, then winners v 3 is the trade off between playing games and being stale. How often do we hear, oh we lost today because we've had two weeks without a game versus oh well we lost because the other lot were fresher from the rest they received. It would be interesting to find out what sort of stats exist on that one, but no doubt would take yonks of research to get an answer.
I don't think so. The myth about 3rd (or 4th place in D4) is that, having just missed out on automatic, the 3rd place team will be psychologically shot in contrast to the 6th (or 7th) placed team who will be elated just to get in the play offs. The stats show that to be nonsense.
The stats may show that theory to be nonsense, but my pont about div 4 stands.
The question is:
Is the gap in ability between the team who finish 4th in L2 and the team who finish 5th/6th/7th, bigger than the gap between the team who finish 3rd in L1/champ and teh team who finish 4th/5th/6th.
The stats would seem to suggest that that is the case, especially as the team who finished 7th have only ever won the PO twice in L2...
Well you would have to work out the average points gap between 3rd and 6th in D2 and D3 and 4th and 7th in D4. Intuitively you would not think there was that much difference. For example, this season the gap between 3rd and 6th in D3 was 17 points and between 4th and 7th in D4 11 points, which would suggest that 7th in D4 have more chance of winning than 6th in D3.
Apparently (think I heard right on R5 tonight) Blackpool have got promoted from all 3 divisions via the Play Offs..I'd settle for a segment of that tangerine dream!
This year yes. Other years who knows. I haven`t got time to work out the averages...
2000 posts - every single one a gem (ish)
FFS another tin pot Lancashire team going for the top flight with the likes of Wigan and the shitty little mill towns of Blackburn, Bolton, Burnley etc makes you want to weep to think we can't compete with shit like these.
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