Matchday 44 Graphs – 8 Days when “We Really Did Do Magic”

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ucandomagic

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Wembley with my son last Saturday, and then 2 highly professional wins against playoff challenging sides - if Carlsberg did weeks in football!

Today, I thought that Anel’s pace made us far less vulnerable down the centre, and Bash was just superb. Tommy Doyle was running the centre of the park – and we were significantly weaker when he went off. A pity that we couldn’t make a chance for Billy’s 250, but Iliman was amazing all over the pitch, McB was really hungry when he came on and Jebbo was uncontrollable.

No point showing my “Paths to the Prem” graphs – as we’re now off the end of the path and rolling downhill to the pub! However, I think that comparing this season to some of our previous seasons at this level is still significant – which I will explain a bit further down.

Firstly, Graph 1 is the usual multiple comparison graph with our best recent Championship seasons. Graph 1 shows that after 44 games, on 88 points (2 points a game now!) we are still 3 points ahead of our 85 points in Wilder’s promotion season in 18/19 but, for the first time, on 88 we are ahead by 2 points of Warnock’s 86 points from 44 games in 05/06. So Hecky is now on course to beat our best Championship season for over 20 years.

Graph 1:
Our Best Recent Champs - Matchday 44.jpg


I started to get quite excited about Hecky’s ranking earlier in the week, and I posted a table comparing our current position to our best seasons at this level since the war. I had to do a bit of normalisation to convert the 42-game 2-point seasons for comparison. I've updated the table today and it's below here. I think it is potentially really significant.

Ranking Table:
Post-War Table.jpg


Even if we lose the next 2 games, this will be our 5th best performance at this level since the war. If we win the next 2 games Hecky will have produced our best performance at this level since the war – and I haven’t checked back any further because I think pre-war was a whole different football world anyway. So our quietly contented smiling guy from Barnsley could be in the process of setting new managerial standards for our club at this level.

Finally, the League Table, and a healthy 10-point gap between us and the Mad Hatters, and a yawning 14-point chasm between us and the Championship Manager of the Season!! Also, a very nice green feel to the completed home column.

League Table:
League Table.jpg

As I pointed out in my midweek thread, I’m sorry to tell you that Wendy are still on course to break one of our records, the highest points (90) for a team not to get promoted from League 1. On 93, and out of automatics, I have to concede that unless they get to Wembley and win they will have stripped us of that record!!!

UTB & Slava Ukraini
 
Last edited:



Great work. I was only thinking about the comparison to other promotions at this level yesterday after the game.

For the record, we only really had one other comparable season pre-WW2 and that was literally in the final season before war broke out in 1939.
Our record was W20 D14 L8 which would only equate to 74 points in todays money, however that was 42 games. If you ratio it, we would have only got 81 points.

Our only other promotion season was our first season in the League in 1892-93 which is not really comparable as we only played 22 games that season (W16 D3 L3).
 
Strange isn’t it. Last time we went up we all thought we’ll take the Premiership by surprise. This time most think we’ll come straight back down (including me), yet we’ve probably got a much better team and likely to finish on more points than last time too
 
Strange isn’t it. Last time we went up we all thought we’ll take the Premiership by surprise. This time most think we’ll come straight back down (including me), yet we’ve probably got a much better team and likely to finish on more points than last time too
Take out the three loanees and we don’t have a better team. Much depends on what the squad looks like at the end of August.
 
Wembley with my son last Saturday, and then 2 highly professional wins against playoff challenging sides - if Carlsberg did weeks in football!

Today, I thought that Anel’s pace made us far less vulnerable down the centre, and Bash was just superb. Tommy Doyle was running the centre of the park – and we were significantly weaker when he went off. A pity that we couldn’t make a chance for Billy’s 250, but Iliman was amazing all over the pitch, McB was really hungry when he came on and Jebbo was uncontrollable.

No point showing my “Paths to the Prem” graphs – as we’re now off the end of the path and rolling downhill to the pub! However, I think that comparing this season to some of our previous seasons at this level is still significant – which I will explain a bit further down.

Firstly, Graph 1 is the usual multiple comparison graph with our best recent Championship seasons. Graph 1 shows that after 44 games, on 88 points (2 points a game now!) we are still 3 points ahead of our 85 points in Wilder’s promotion season in 18/19 but, for the first time, on 88 we are ahead by 2 points of Warnock’s 86 points from 44 games in 05/06. So Hecky is now on course to beat our best Championship season for over 20 years.

Graph 1:
View attachment 159393


I started to get quite excited about Hecky’s ranking earlier in the week, and I posted a table comparing our current position to our best seasons at this level since the war. I had to do a bit of normalisation to convert the 42-game 2-point seasons for comparison. I've updated the table today and it's below here. I think it is potentially really significant.

Ranking Table:
View attachment 159396


Even if we lose the next 2 games, this will be our 5th best performance at this level since the war. If we win the next 2 games Hecky will have produced our best performance at this level since the war – and I haven’t checked back any further because I think pre-war was a whole different football world anyway. So our quietly contented smiling guy from Barnsley could be in the process of setting new managerial standards for our club at this level.

Finally, the League Table, and a healthy 10-point gap between us and the Mad Hatters, and a yawning 14-point chasm between us and the Championship Manager of the Season!! Also, a very nice green feel to the completed home column.

League Table:
View attachment 159398

As I pointed out in my midweek thread, I’m sorry to tell you that Wendy are still on course to break one of our records, the highest points (90) for a team not to get promoted from League 1. On 93, and out of automatics, I have to concede that unless they get to Wembley and win they will have stripped us of that record!!!

UTB & Slava Ukraini
Seeing it graphically in colours like that shows how badly we did against the rest of the top six.
 
Take out the three loanees and we don’t have a better team. Much depends on what the squad looks like at the end of August.
I don’t agree. Clark literally never plays. McAtee & Doyle are great and I think one of them comes back. We also lost Duffy after the championship and Lundstrum was the surprise package.

We didn’t really have a striker beyond Sharp / McGoldrick & Leon Clarke was in the squads.

Henderson like McAtee & Doyle wasn’t guaranteed to come back.

We have a better team now. If NDiaye & Berge don’t go.
 
I don’t agree. Clark literally never plays. McAtee & Doyle are great and I think one of them comes back. We also lost Duffy after the championship and Lundstrum was the surprise package.

We didn’t really have a striker beyond Sharp / McGoldrick & Leon Clarke was in the squads.

Henderson like McAtee & Doyle wasn’t guaranteed to come back.

We have a better team now. If NDiaye & Berge don’t go.
To some extent we agree. The last time we strengthened up front and for a time Mousset and McB were producing.
I think we both see the need to add to what we have.
 



I’ve just read the Kate Burlaga Athletic article, and she has the same regard for Hecky that you do.

Under the surface the guy is pure gold, deep knowledge and zero bullshit.

UTB & FTP
 

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