ucandomagic
Well-Known Member
So, a battle of two cities with steel in their histories and a taste for Sheffield Managers beginning with W!
I don’t feel like commenting on the game – it was just a bad day at the office with a total lack of leadership on the field.
So we won’t dwell on the game, but just calmly(!) look at the graphs and charts to put it all back into context:-
Graph 1 is the multiple comparison graph with our best recent Championship seasons. Graph 1 shows that after 31 games, on 61 points we may be behind Warnock’s excellent 05/06 season – which had 69 points after 31 games - but we are still ahead, by 6 points, of our 55 points in Wilder’s promotion season in 18/19. So, even tonight, this continues to be our best Championship season for a very long time, and much better than the Wilder promotion season.
Graph 1:
Graph 2 compares where we are to my benchmark results for each game to achieve an automatic promotion or a playoff season. You can see from Graph 2 that on 61 points we are now bang on top of my Autos Certain line. This line is for almost certain automatics – and 2 or 3 points below this line would still have a very high probability of getting automatics this season. So after two thirds of the season we have exactly the number of points that I thought we would need for automatic promotion from the games we have played to date.
Graph 2:
Next, the League Table and, oh look - we're still second with a 7 point gap back to Boro in third place with a game in hand on them, I'd have taken that any other day of the week! Preston did us a favour as well, equalizing against Luton, and the West Brom v Blackburn draw was probably the best result possible for us.
League Table
Finally, my new Run-In Table. Those of you who read my thread from Tuesday will recall that I assume a maximum credible 2.5 points per game (ppg) in the run-in for our nearest 8 rivals, and then calculate what we would need to do to match the best of them.
Tuesday’s table had Luton with the highest projected credible total of 89 points, which meant that on Tuesday we required 1.75 points per game to finish ahead.
The Run-In Table below shows that, after tonight’s draw at Preston, Luton’s final projected total is now down to 87.5. Teesside Town’s win puts their projected maximum up to 89. So, our target now is 28 points from 15 games at a ppg of 1.87.
Run-In Table
I’ll keep putting the updated target ppg in the thread title after each matchday.
So, this is still our best Championship season for nearly 20 years – and much better than the Wilder promotion season. The points per game that we need for comfortable automatic promotion is much less than we have achieved so far.
A bit of strong leadership on the pitch, when Billy is back, and all will be well.
Nil Desperandum
UTB & Slava Ukraini
I don’t feel like commenting on the game – it was just a bad day at the office with a total lack of leadership on the field.
So we won’t dwell on the game, but just calmly(!) look at the graphs and charts to put it all back into context:-
Graph 1 is the multiple comparison graph with our best recent Championship seasons. Graph 1 shows that after 31 games, on 61 points we may be behind Warnock’s excellent 05/06 season – which had 69 points after 31 games - but we are still ahead, by 6 points, of our 55 points in Wilder’s promotion season in 18/19. So, even tonight, this continues to be our best Championship season for a very long time, and much better than the Wilder promotion season.
Graph 1:
Graph 2 compares where we are to my benchmark results for each game to achieve an automatic promotion or a playoff season. You can see from Graph 2 that on 61 points we are now bang on top of my Autos Certain line. This line is for almost certain automatics – and 2 or 3 points below this line would still have a very high probability of getting automatics this season. So after two thirds of the season we have exactly the number of points that I thought we would need for automatic promotion from the games we have played to date.
Graph 2:
Next, the League Table and, oh look - we're still second with a 7 point gap back to Boro in third place with a game in hand on them, I'd have taken that any other day of the week! Preston did us a favour as well, equalizing against Luton, and the West Brom v Blackburn draw was probably the best result possible for us.
League Table
Finally, my new Run-In Table. Those of you who read my thread from Tuesday will recall that I assume a maximum credible 2.5 points per game (ppg) in the run-in for our nearest 8 rivals, and then calculate what we would need to do to match the best of them.
Tuesday’s table had Luton with the highest projected credible total of 89 points, which meant that on Tuesday we required 1.75 points per game to finish ahead.
The Run-In Table below shows that, after tonight’s draw at Preston, Luton’s final projected total is now down to 87.5. Teesside Town’s win puts their projected maximum up to 89. So, our target now is 28 points from 15 games at a ppg of 1.87.
Run-In Table
I’ll keep putting the updated target ppg in the thread title after each matchday.
So, this is still our best Championship season for nearly 20 years – and much better than the Wilder promotion season. The points per game that we need for comfortable automatic promotion is much less than we have achieved so far.
A bit of strong leadership on the pitch, when Billy is back, and all will be well.
Nil Desperandum
UTB & Slava Ukraini
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