Matchday 30 Graphs and Thoughts – A Welsh Swan Song

[ucandomagic]

So, Blades 2 - Wales 0 this week - no Hollywood filmstars today though! A strong performance and a comfortable 3-0 win in a funny sort of game. Swansea are definitely a side that flatters to deceive. For 10 minutes or so they were really impressive, stroking the ball around and allowing us barely a touch. But, apart from one half chance, they never really got anywhere. Then we discovered that if we got in their faces their confidence on the ball evaporated, and we started winning the ball back all over the pitch.

This game really showed what a great deal it was when we got Bogle and Lowe as a package. Seeing them tearing up and down the flanks was like going back to the days of the two Kyles – one of whom was back on our pitch for the day! Bogle was my man of the match and had a fantastic day, being instrumental in Goals 1 and 3 and almost setting Billy up for one as well. Our 3 skilled on-the-ball players Ndiaye, McAtee and Bogle were exactly what Swansea were missing – a cutting edge, slicing through while Swansea were just floating around. And as for JLT – clinical finishing and innumerable dangerous balls hurled into the box on top of his day job!

So – how do the graphs and charts look after this week’s results? :-

Graph 1 is the multiple comparison graph with our best recent Championship seasons. Graph 1 shows that after 30 games, on 61 points we remain just the 5 points behind Warnock’s excellent 05/06 season – which had 66 points after 30 games. We are also still 7 points ahead of our 54 points in Wilder’s promotion season in 18/19. So this continues to be our best Championship season for a very long time. Not bad for Hecky’s first full season in charge.

Graph 1:



Graph 2 compares where we are to my benchmark results for each game to achieve an automatic promotion or a playoff season. You can see from Graph 2 that we are now 1 point ahead of my Autos Certain line. This line is for almost certain automatics – 2 or 3 points below this line would still have a very high probability of getting automatics this season. I think it’s remarkable how close we’ve been to my automatics line of results for the whole season – dropped away a bit in our 3 points from 6 games slump, but then climbed back onto the line again. We are also still well ahead, by 9 points, of my Playoffs Certain results.

Graph 2:



Finally, the League Table, and still a 10 point gap back to Boro in third place. but one game nearer to the finish line (they have already played a game more as well). Now 12 points back to Luton in fourth, on the same number of games.

League Table


Whisper it quietly, but Wednesday’s game against Teesside Town is looking evermore pivotal.
Let’s burst their bubble like a Chinese spy balloon!

UTB & Slava Ukraini
Wings for Freedom

 

[KeithEdsgoalWards]

I'm not falling for this.
It's like having your dream bird in bed but refusing teh fcuk request because you know it's a trap.
It's deffo a trap.

 

[ThirdGenBlade]

So, Blades 2 - Wales 0 this week - no Hollywood filmstars today though! A strong performance and a comfortable 3-0 win in a funny sort of game. Swansea are definitely a side that flatters to deceive. For 10 minutes or so they were really impressive, stroking the ball around and allowing us barely a touch. But, apart from one half chance, they never really got anywhere. Then we discovered that if we got in their faces their confidence on the ball evaporated, and we started winning the ball back all over the pitch.

This game really showed what a great deal it was when we got Bogle and Lowe as a package. Seeing them tearing up and down the flanks was like going back to the days of the two Kyles – one of whom was back on our pitch for the day! Bogle was my man of the match and had a fantastic day, being instrumental in Goals 1 and 3 and almost setting Billy up for one as well. Our 3 skilled on-the-ball players Ndiaye, McAtee and Bogle were exactly what Swansea were missing – a cutting edge, slicing through while Swansea were just floating around. And as for JLT – clinical finishing and innumerable dangerous balls hurled into the box on top of his day job!

So – how do the graphs and charts look after this week’s results? :-

Graph 1 is the multiple comparison graph with our best recent Championship seasons. Graph 1 shows that after 30 games, on 61 points we remain just the 5 points behind Warnock’s excellent 05/06 season – which had 66 points after 30 games. We are also still 7 points ahead of our 54 points in Wilder’s promotion season in 18/19. So this continues to be our best Championship season for a very long time. Not bad for Hecky’s first full season in charge.

Graph 1:
View attachment 153685


Graph 2 compares where we are to my benchmark results for each game to achieve an automatic promotion or a playoff season. You can see from Graph 2 that we are now 1 point ahead of my Autos Certain line. This line is for almost certain automatics – 2 or 3 points below this line would still have a very high probability of getting automatics this season. I think it’s remarkable how close we’ve been to my automatics line of results for the whole season – dropped away a bit in our 3 points from 6 games slump, but then climbed back onto the line again. We are also still well ahead, by 9 points, of my Playoffs Certain results.

Graph 2:
View attachment 153686


Finally, the League Table, and still a 10 point gap back to Boro in third place. but one game nearer to the finish line (they have already played a game more as well). Now 12 points back to Luton in fourth, on the same number of games.

League Table
View attachment 153687

Whisper it quietly, but Wednesday’s game against Teesside Town is looking evermore pivotal.
Let’s burst their bubble like a Chinese spy balloon!

UTB & Slava Ukraini
Wings for Freedom

Thanks - This takes the emotion out and provides some hard facts that put the game in context for the season and the season in the context of other seasons.

I’m looking forward to a 10 point gap with 3 games left!!

 

[vas borbokis]

Thanks for taking time to do these charts. Great to see!

 

[b1ade4life]

Do you have a Steffi Graph??

 

[Inter_blade83]

I'm not falling for this.
It's like having your dream bird in bed but refusing teh fcuk request because you know it's a trap.
It's deffo a trap.

 

[Cappy]

I'm not falling for this.
It's like having your dream bird in bed but refusing teh fcuk request because you know it's a trap.
It's deffo a trap.

Supporting the blades and watching “there’s something about Miriam”, can destroy a man.

 

[ucandomagic]

People talk about gaps, but they are only relevant when considered alongside games left.

The way that I look at things is that it is realistic to think that even if anybody has a fantastic run they will not average more than 2.5 points a game for the rest of the season.

That means at present Boro, Luton & Millwall could get to 89. But as they drop points that max reduces - and when their max at 2.5 goes below our actual points I will start a long period of serious celebration!!

 

[Programmechap2]

People talk about gaps, but they are only relevant when considered alongside games left.

The way that I look at things is that it is realistic to think that even if anybody has a fantastic run they will not average more than 2.5 points a game for the rest of the season.

That means at present Boro, Luton & Millwall could get to 89. But as they drop points that max reduces - and when their max at 2.5 goes below our actual points I will start a long period of serious celebration!!

I'd be a bit more optimistic. Burnley are on 68 points from 30 games, which is just below 2.3 points a game. In the unlikely event Boro go on a Burnley like run, that gets them to 85 points. So we need 86, which is 25 from 16 games which is basically upper mid table/fringes of the play offs form. Or W7 D4 L5.

So even with a significant drop in form (of which there is no sign), we're likely to do it.

 

[ThirdGenBlade]

I'd be a bit more optimistic. Burnley are on 68 points from 30 games, which is just below 2.3 points a game. In the unlikely event Boro go on a Burnley like run, that gets them to 85 points. So we need 86, which is 25 from 16 games which is basically upper mid table/fringes of the play offs form. Or W7 D4 L5.

So even with a significant drop in form (of which there is no sign), we're likely to do it.

I like positive thinkers - but we did have a run of 3 points in 6 games earlier this season!

At the end of the day it is down to us - statistically we should get there - but…!

 

[Programmechap2]

I like positive thinkers - but we did have a run of 3 points in 6 games earlier this season!

At the end of the day it is down to us - statistically we should get there - but…!

In all likelihood. I think a low 80s figure will get 2nd place, because there's so much bunching below 2nd. The 10 point gap between 2nd and 3rd is equal to the gap between 3rd and 11th. And Reading in 18th are only 8 points below 6th.

So if we're saying a 10 point gap between 2nd and 3rd can be bridged, then presumably the 8 point gap between 6th and 18th can be bridged. You then have the mind boggling fact that 18 teams will think that they have a feasible chance of promotion!

Obviously the 16 clubs between 3rd and 18th will take points off each other thus significantly reducing the points needed to get 2nd.

 

[BladesOnToast]

Some observations:

• we have played a lot more sides in the lower half than the upper half: we have 10 left against top half sides compared to 6 against bottom half sides.
• However our PPG is actually higher against top half teams (2.16) than bottom half (1.94)
• In any case, top half and bottom half are misleading in this table - you've got such a cluster of teams from Reading up to Millwall separated by just a few points. We've got 3 games to play against teams above this cluster, and 3 games to play against teams below this cluster, so arguably our run-in from here is fairly balanced.

I'm sure when i started writing there was a point to this post but it seems to have gone missing...

 

[Le Cynique]

I'm not falling for this.
It's like having your dream bird in bed but refusing teh fcuk request because you know it's a trap.
It's deffo a trap.

This has never happened to me.

Not refusing teh fcuk request, obvs. But having the dream bird in bed to begin with.

 

[andy m]

Some observations:

• we have played a lot more sides in the lower half than the upper half: we have 10 left against top half sides compared to 6 against bottom half sides.
• However our PPG is actually higher against top half teams (2.16) than bottom half (1.94)
• In any case, top half and bottom half are misleading in this table - you've got such a cluster of teams from Reading up to Millwall separated by just a few points. We've got 3 games to play against teams above this cluster, and 3 games to play against teams below this cluster, so arguably our run-in from here is fairly balanced.

I'm sure when i started writing there was a point to this post but it seems to have gone missing...

So you are saying that we have a hard. but easy, and yet average run in?

 

[BladesOnToast]

So you are saying that we have a hard. but easy, and yet average run in?

Couldn't have put it better myself

 

[Yewsman]

Surely the only thing that can stop us getting autos is injuries or another "Ched" type occurrence which no one has thought of! I do worry about injuries up front. Billy looks crocked, is OMB fit? If we lose OMB or Illi we are left with just Jebbo.

 

[mattbianco1]

So, Blades 2 - Wales 0 this week - no Hollywood filmstars today though! A strong performance and a comfortable 3-0 win in a funny sort of game. Swansea are definitely a side that flatters to deceive. For 10 minutes or so they were really impressive, stroking the ball around and allowing us barely a touch. But, apart from one half chance, they never really got anywhere. Then we discovered that if we got in their faces their confidence on the ball evaporated, and we started winning the ball back all over the pitch.

This game really showed what a great deal it was when we got Bogle and Lowe as a package. Seeing them tearing up and down the flanks was like going back to the days of the two Kyles – one of whom was back on our pitch for the day! Bogle was my man of the match and had a fantastic day, being instrumental in Goals 1 and 3 and almost setting Billy up for one as well. Our 3 skilled on-the-ball players Ndiaye, McAtee and Bogle were exactly what Swansea were missing – a cutting edge, slicing through while Swansea were just floating around. And as for JLT – clinical finishing and innumerable dangerous balls hurled into the box on top of his day job!

So – how do the graphs and charts look after this week’s results? :-

Graph 1 is the multiple comparison graph with our best recent Championship seasons. Graph 1 shows that after 30 games, on 61 points we remain just the 5 points behind Warnock’s excellent 05/06 season – which had 66 points after 30 games. We are also still 7 points ahead of our 54 points in Wilder’s promotion season in 18/19. So this continues to be our best Championship season for a very long time. Not bad for Hecky’s first full season in charge.

Graph 1:
View attachment 153685


Graph 2 compares where we are to my benchmark results for each game to achieve an automatic promotion or a playoff season. You can see from Graph 2 that we are now 1 point ahead of my Autos Certain line. This line is for almost certain automatics – 2 or 3 points below this line would still have a very high probability of getting automatics this season. I think it’s remarkable how close we’ve been to my automatics line of results for the whole season – dropped away a bit in our 3 points from 6 games slump, but then climbed back onto the line again. We are also still well ahead, by 9 points, of my Playoffs Certain results.

Graph 2:
View attachment 153686


Finally, the League Table, and still a 10 point gap back to Boro in third place. but one game nearer to the finish line (they have already played a game more as well). Now 12 points back to Luton in fourth, on the same number of games.

League Table
View attachment 153687

Whisper it quietly, but Wednesday’s game against Teesside Town is looking evermore pivotal.
Let’s burst their bubble like a Chinese spy balloon!

UTB & Slava Ukraini
Wings for Freedom

Watford are the only team that can possibly do the double over us

 

[Westran]

Middlesbrough really is a huge game, they're slightly ahead of us on points per game over the last 6 to 10 matches, we're ahead of them over 4 matches. But they have also faced tougher opposition, with their opponents averaging more points per game than ours. You can only beat who you play, but the stats make this game probably the most important game of the season on paper, beat these and we make it so much more difficult for them, both psychology and statistically.

 

[Blade56]

So, Blades 2 - Wales 0 this week - no Hollywood filmstars today though! A strong performance and a comfortable 3-0 win in a funny sort of game. Swansea are definitely a side that flatters to deceive. For 10 minutes or so they were really impressive, stroking the ball around and allowing us barely a touch. But, apart from one half chance, they never really got anywhere. Then we discovered that if we got in their faces their confidence on the ball evaporated, and we started winning the ball back all over the pitch.

This game really showed what a great deal it was when we got Bogle and Lowe as a package. Seeing them tearing up and down the flanks was like going back to the days of the two Kyles – one of whom was back on our pitch for the day! Bogle was my man of the match and had a fantastic day, being instrumental in Goals 1 and 3 and almost setting Billy up for one as well. Our 3 skilled on-the-ball players Ndiaye, McAtee and Bogle were exactly what Swansea were missing – a cutting edge, slicing through while Swansea were just floating around. And as for JLT – clinical finishing and innumerable dangerous balls hurled into the box on top of his day job!

So – how do the graphs and charts look after this week’s results? :-

Graph 1 is the multiple comparison graph with our best recent Championship seasons. Graph 1 shows that after 30 games, on 61 points we remain just the 5 points behind Warnock’s excellent 05/06 season – which had 66 points after 30 games. We are also still 7 points ahead of our 54 points in Wilder’s promotion season in 18/19. So this continues to be our best Championship season for a very long time. Not bad for Hecky’s first full season in charge.

Graph 1:
View attachment 153685


Graph 2 compares where we are to my benchmark results for each game to achieve an automatic promotion or a playoff season. You can see from Graph 2 that we are now 1 point ahead of my Autos Certain line. This line is for almost certain automatics – 2 or 3 points below this line would still have a very high probability of getting automatics this season. I think it’s remarkable how close we’ve been to my automatics line of results for the whole season – dropped away a bit in our 3 points from 6 games slump, but then climbed back onto the line again. We are also still well ahead, by 9 points, of my Playoffs Certain results.

Graph 2:
View attachment 153686


Finally, the League Table, and still a 10 point gap back to Boro in third place. but one game nearer to the finish line (they have already played a game more as well). Now 12 points back to Luton in fourth, on the same number of games.

League Table
View attachment 153687

Whisper it quietly, but Wednesday’s game against Teesside Town is looking evermore pivotal.
Let’s burst their bubble like a Chinese spy balloon!

UTB & Slava Ukraini
Wings for Freedom

How it pans out in Mr Jelly’s brain….

 

[ucandomagic]

How it pans out in Mr Jelly’s brain….

View attachment 153808

Even we can’t lose points Mr Jelly!!

 

[Bookers Mullet]

Even we can’t lose points Mr Jelly!!

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