ucandomagic
Active Member
A more open game than I expected - I thought Rotherham would press much higher and harder than they did. Overall, though, it was a game without any real quality moments. It needed something special to bring it to life, from the likes of Iliman or Jayden, but things just weren’t coming off for them. (Perhaps it was a bit of a Dozy performance!!)
Only 3 clear chances in the whole game – 2 for us and 1 for them. Their free header from about 8 yards out was certainly the best chance – but Anel’s header and Jayden’s shot over the bar should both have been better. Somebody really needs to tell Egan and Anel that if you head an attacking header down towards the line you have more than twice the chance of scoring over a flat header towards (or over!) the top of the goal. I guess defenders just get used to heading it up and away!
Overall, we at least avoided conceding a first double against us, but other results from Boro and Luton have tightened things up a bit. So – on to the graphs and charts to assess the damage:-
Graph 1 is the usual multiple comparison graph with our best recent Championship seasons. Graph 1 shows that after 29 games, on 58 points we are 5 points behind Warnock’s excellent 05/06 season – which had 63 points after 29 games (Warnock would still be 2 behind Burnley’s 65). We are also 7 points ahead of our 51 points in Wilder’s promotion season in 18/19. So it continues to be our best Championship season for a long time.
Graph 1:
Graph 2 compares where we are to my benchmark results for each game to achieve an automatic promotion or a playoff season. You can see from Graph 2 that we are now 1 point behind my Autos Certain line. Remember, though, this is for almost certain automatics – we are still a couple of points clear of results for a very high probability automatics total. We are also well ahead, by 9 points, of my Playoffs Certain results.
Graph 2:
Finally, the League Table, and now a 10 point gap to Boro in third place, although they have played a game more. Also 10 points back to Luton in fourth; they are on the same number of games as us though. As I mentioned above – Rotherham was another game where we could have conceded our first double of the season – so at least we avoided that. Only Watford left for that possibility now. Looking at the table, that block of 4 home games against the teams in 3rd to 6th will probably define how easy or tense our run in becomes. In fact, we haven’t played our second game against any of the top 11, as we still have to play 7-11 away.
League Table
So, we regroup and move on. Hopefully, a good win on Tuesday against the sheep-shaggers, and getting a few more minutes into some returning players, will set us up nicely for the second act of our Welsh week next Saturday.
UTB & Slava Ukraini
Only 3 clear chances in the whole game – 2 for us and 1 for them. Their free header from about 8 yards out was certainly the best chance – but Anel’s header and Jayden’s shot over the bar should both have been better. Somebody really needs to tell Egan and Anel that if you head an attacking header down towards the line you have more than twice the chance of scoring over a flat header towards (or over!) the top of the goal. I guess defenders just get used to heading it up and away!
Overall, we at least avoided conceding a first double against us, but other results from Boro and Luton have tightened things up a bit. So – on to the graphs and charts to assess the damage:-
Graph 1 is the usual multiple comparison graph with our best recent Championship seasons. Graph 1 shows that after 29 games, on 58 points we are 5 points behind Warnock’s excellent 05/06 season – which had 63 points after 29 games (Warnock would still be 2 behind Burnley’s 65). We are also 7 points ahead of our 51 points in Wilder’s promotion season in 18/19. So it continues to be our best Championship season for a long time.
Graph 1:
Graph 2 compares where we are to my benchmark results for each game to achieve an automatic promotion or a playoff season. You can see from Graph 2 that we are now 1 point behind my Autos Certain line. Remember, though, this is for almost certain automatics – we are still a couple of points clear of results for a very high probability automatics total. We are also well ahead, by 9 points, of my Playoffs Certain results.
Graph 2:
Finally, the League Table, and now a 10 point gap to Boro in third place, although they have played a game more. Also 10 points back to Luton in fourth; they are on the same number of games as us though. As I mentioned above – Rotherham was another game where we could have conceded our first double of the season – so at least we avoided that. Only Watford left for that possibility now. Looking at the table, that block of 4 home games against the teams in 3rd to 6th will probably define how easy or tense our run in becomes. In fact, we haven’t played our second game against any of the top 11, as we still have to play 7-11 away.
League Table
So, we regroup and move on. Hopefully, a good win on Tuesday against the sheep-shaggers, and getting a few more minutes into some returning players, will set us up nicely for the second act of our Welsh week next Saturday.
UTB & Slava Ukraini
