Gannon's perm
Ive stolen this, whatever i did could be on any number of forums and it was no where near as in depth so. What i will add is at Marseille they won there final 4 games and that Bilbao side in his first season played over 60 games including European football and all the travelling that comes with it while using a squad the same size as yours.
"It has become received wisdom that Bielsa teams burnout and cannot sustain their form over the course of a long season. You would think that this would mean that his teams tend to win fewer games and accrue fewer points as the season goes on. I had a little look at his previous seasons in management to see if this was the case, going back to Velez Sarsfield in 97/98. The first thing to remark on is that there isn't a huge amount of data. In the last 20 years he has only completed 4 full seasons of club management. He didn't take a single game with Lazio in 2016, only had 14 with Lille in 2017 and only 6 with Espanyol in 1998 so they aren't really worthy of analysis in this respect. The rest of his time was spent in international management which obviously doesn't have the same regularity as club football.
I decided to split the seasons into four quarters to compare points tallies across the year. Taking it in chronological order:
Velez Sarsfield 97/98. (NB: the Argentine season in this era was played in two distinct parts with two champions. However, it was effectively a 38 game season with a long winter break between the end of December and start of February).
- Matches 1-9: W4 D3 L2 - 15 points
- Matches 10-19: W4 D5 L1 - 17 points
- Matches 20-28: W6 D2 L1 - 20 points
- Matches 29-38: W8 D2 L0 - 26 points
Athletic Bilbao 11/12
- Matches 1-9: W3 D3 L3 - 12 points
- Matches 10-19: W3 D5 L2 - 14 points
- Matches 20-28: W3 D2 L4 - 11 points
- Matches 29-38: W3 D3 L4 - 12 points
Athletic Bilbao 12/13
- Matches 1-9: W2 D2 L5 - 8 points
- Matches 10-19: W4 D1 L4 - 13 points
- Matches 20-28: W3 D2 L4 - 11 points
- Matches 29-38: W3 D4 L3 - 13 points
Marseille 14/15
- Matches 1-9: W7 D1 L1 - 22 points
- Matches 10-19: W6 D1 L3 - 19 points
- Matches 20-28: W3 D3 L3 - 12 points
- Matches 29-38: W5 D1 L4 - 16 points
So bearing in mind that I only looked at regular season league matches and haven't gone back beyond the 20 year mark (as I don't think this popular reputation for burnout comes from the distant past in central and South America) we can see that the points totals are fairly evenly spread across the four quarters. At Velez the league form got stronger as things went on, whereas at Bilbao there is pretty much a consistency between all sectors. At Marseille the team got off to an absolute flyer and were top for a while before slipping down the table but the dip over time wasn't especially dramatic (they finished 4th) and that kind of blinding start followed by a tail off wasn't characteristic of his Bilbao team.
If anyone is interested, I also found this analysis of statistics relating to the Marseille pressing tactics:
https://saturdaysoncouch.wordpress.com/2015/04/08/taking-a-look-at-this-years-bielsa-burnout/. The takeaway point is that measured by possession turnovers in the attacking third there isn't anything particularly remarkable about the effectiveness of the press. Moreover, although the press did drop deeper as the game went on the ability to score goals late in a game appeared undiminished.
It seems to me that the reputation for burnout comes from (a) the blistering start that Marseille made, which realistically they were never going to maintain and (b) the defeats that Bilbao suffered in the Europa League and Copa Del Rey finals. Suffering at the final hurdle is often put down to exhaustion but it isn't reflected in league performance as far as I can see.
At some point we will go through a sticky patch as does every team and it will undoubtedly be put down to burnout because that is the media narrative for Bielsa. We aren't going to maintain a 2.6 points-per-game average regardless of physical fitness. But there is no real reason to think that we are going to completely collapse either.