ucandomagic
Well-Known Member
Saved this until after tonight’s matches and Leeds’ win! At least it was only Leeds that won in the Top 7.
A Tale of 2 Attitudes last night. We were mentally defensive, Bristol City were mentally aggressive. Perhaps understandable, as we are second, defending our position while they are seventh, desperate to push on and get in the playoffs….
.… but winning teams have to maintain that aggression - if you want to be the leader you’ve got to stay in front. Wilder’s interview was spot-on, we were lethargic, but his substitutions almost got us the win. Rhian and Gus came on, brought that front foot, risk-taking approach and created a great goal for Ty. Then fear kicked in again and we gave back the initiative.
I have to mention GoalCooper’s save in the first half - not as spectacular as full-length Hollywood dives, but up there with Seaman’s save from Pesch in terms of reaction and technique.
Overall, though, Bristol City had 60% possession and 23 shots to our 13. We really missed Vini’s drive and presence, but one real positive was an excellent first start for Rob Holding.
Preliminary XG data is Blades 1.36 – Bristol City 1.56, so we can’t be too unhappy with the result.
So now the graphs and charts that show factually where we are at present.
Graph 1 compares our progress against 3 benchmark sets of results which represent Automatic Promotion, Playoff Certainty and Playoff Possibility. My benchmarks take account of who our opponents are each week. On 77 points, comparing to my benchmarks, we are now 4 points ahead of my Autos Promotion (92-point) schedule – and that is with our 2 point deduction. My forecast for us is now 96 points and second place.
Graph 1:
Graph 2 compares this season against our last 3 successful promotions from this level (all in second place), in 2005/06, 2018/19 and 2022/23. On 77 points after 37 games (with the 2-point deduction) we are 6 points ahead of the 71 points that we had under Wilder in 18/19, now 7 points ahead of Hecky in 22/23 and 2 points ahead of Warnock in 05/06.
So we are still 6 points ahead of where we were in that great 18/19 Wilder promotion season, even with the 2-point deduction.
Graph 2:
Next, the coloured annotated up-to-date League Table, which highlights where our strengths and weaknesses have been against opponents’ league positions. (Not much green showing up at the top!) We sit neatly 2 behind Leeds and 2 ahead of Burnley after the midweek games. (Without that late Bristol City goal we’d only be behind Leeds on goal difference.) Sunderland are another 6 back from Burnley and are probably out of the Autos race.
My current forecasts are Leeds 104, Blades 96, Burnley 94, Sunderland 88.
League Table:
So, it’s still looking incredibly tight between us and Burnley and as Graph 3 shows, including my forecasts, it looks like being just as tight right to the end.
Graph 3:
Just a little local difficulty to deal with on Sunday!
Wendy have scored 27 goals in their 18 home games with an XG of 28.5 and conceded 27 with an XGA of 26.2. Blades have scored 25 in 18 away games with an XG of 21.6 and conceded 14 with an XGA of 21.5
So the stats would probably suggest 2-1 Blades (with 1-0 Blades and 1-1 as the next most likely scores).
Haec Urbs Rubra Est!
UTB & Slava Ukraini!
A Tale of 2 Attitudes last night. We were mentally defensive, Bristol City were mentally aggressive. Perhaps understandable, as we are second, defending our position while they are seventh, desperate to push on and get in the playoffs….
.… but winning teams have to maintain that aggression - if you want to be the leader you’ve got to stay in front. Wilder’s interview was spot-on, we were lethargic, but his substitutions almost got us the win. Rhian and Gus came on, brought that front foot, risk-taking approach and created a great goal for Ty. Then fear kicked in again and we gave back the initiative.
I have to mention GoalCooper’s save in the first half - not as spectacular as full-length Hollywood dives, but up there with Seaman’s save from Pesch in terms of reaction and technique.
Overall, though, Bristol City had 60% possession and 23 shots to our 13. We really missed Vini’s drive and presence, but one real positive was an excellent first start for Rob Holding.
Preliminary XG data is Blades 1.36 – Bristol City 1.56, so we can’t be too unhappy with the result.
So now the graphs and charts that show factually where we are at present.
Graph 1 compares our progress against 3 benchmark sets of results which represent Automatic Promotion, Playoff Certainty and Playoff Possibility. My benchmarks take account of who our opponents are each week. On 77 points, comparing to my benchmarks, we are now 4 points ahead of my Autos Promotion (92-point) schedule – and that is with our 2 point deduction. My forecast for us is now 96 points and second place.
Graph 1:
Graph 2 compares this season against our last 3 successful promotions from this level (all in second place), in 2005/06, 2018/19 and 2022/23. On 77 points after 37 games (with the 2-point deduction) we are 6 points ahead of the 71 points that we had under Wilder in 18/19, now 7 points ahead of Hecky in 22/23 and 2 points ahead of Warnock in 05/06.
So we are still 6 points ahead of where we were in that great 18/19 Wilder promotion season, even with the 2-point deduction.
Graph 2:
Next, the coloured annotated up-to-date League Table, which highlights where our strengths and weaknesses have been against opponents’ league positions. (Not much green showing up at the top!) We sit neatly 2 behind Leeds and 2 ahead of Burnley after the midweek games. (Without that late Bristol City goal we’d only be behind Leeds on goal difference.) Sunderland are another 6 back from Burnley and are probably out of the Autos race.
My current forecasts are Leeds 104, Blades 96, Burnley 94, Sunderland 88.
League Table:
So, it’s still looking incredibly tight between us and Burnley and as Graph 3 shows, including my forecasts, it looks like being just as tight right to the end.
Graph 3:
Just a little local difficulty to deal with on Sunday!
Wendy have scored 27 goals in their 18 home games with an XG of 28.5 and conceded 27 with an XGA of 26.2. Blades have scored 25 in 18 away games with an XG of 21.6 and conceded 14 with an XGA of 21.5
So the stats would probably suggest 2-1 Blades (with 1-0 Blades and 1-1 as the next most likely scores).
Haec Urbs Rubra Est!
UTB & Slava Ukraini!
