How much 'luck' does a team need to be promoted?

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GreasyChipBeattie

GreasyChipBeattie

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I was just thinking about how we played and won at Peterbro and that now they've sacked their manager, it could well become much harder to beat them at their place for our future promotion rivals.
Likewise, Wigan and Millwall seemed to find it difficult to adjust and were there for the taking in the first few games. Had we been down to play them already, would it have made a difference to the overall outcome of our season - possibly like last season when Bristol City came to us first game?
It just got me wondering how much circumstance contributes to a team's success?
Simple stuff like playing against teams when they have loads of injuries, are in a run of bad form or resting players for a cup semi or summat similar.
Would love to have the time to analyse, but don't...or rather can't be arsed, so I suppose I'll just have to go on wondering!!
 



I think this is a really interesting aspect of football that would be quite difficult to analyse.

Arsene Wenger sometimes talks about the impact of the transfer windows, perhaps with one team playing another twice before their star player is signed/sold, or a shocking team being a very different opponent after signing key players in January. How the fixtures fall probably does make more of a difference than people realise, and I think Wenger must have had that good fortune for his invincibles.

It didn't ought to stop the best team winning, but in tight leagues it could be the difference for promotion or relegation. And the best part? We'll never know!
 
I don't know. Were we unlucky that Ched got sent down when he did? Or were we sitting on a time bomb that shouldn't have played a part at all that season after what he'd done that previous summer? That season I didn't feel lucky at all, whenever we went behind I had complete confidence that Evans would get us back in the game, but in hindsight were we "lucky" to have him playing as long as he did!? We only had 4-5 games to win when he went down and we couldn't even manage that.
 
Like Adkin's, I'm a big believer in positive thinking.

"If you go around thinking nothing bad is going to happen, then nothing will...think power, think positive, think bigger!"

image.jpg
 
ask qpr been run rings round in the play off final 25% posession then score with first shot in the last minute
ask wednesday losing 2-1 to hartlepool a player dives they get a ridiculous pen and a player sent off
 
I agree that these examples of luck can play a part but in answer to the question of the OP, I would say, it depends how good you are compared to the rest of the division. Difficult to qualify but if you have, say, the 7th best squad and you get a few bits of luck along the way (playing teams just before they sack managers rather than just after etc.) then you might sneak into the top 6 and go up through the playoffs.

If you’ve got by far the worst squad, all the luck in the world won’t save you and if you have by far the best squad, you should be able to overcome any luck issues to win the league.

For us, I think we will need some luck but hopefully not more than can be reasonably expected. If we have most of our key players available for most of the season and can add quality like Burn and Hammond, I’m confident we should have enough to make the top 2 and not have to deal with the playoffs.

Positive thinking can certainly play it’s part too and I think Nigel is a big plus point for us on that level. After the Evans verdict, I think the effect it had on everyone at the club (fans, players, staff etc.) probably had as much to do with our failure as his absence from the team did. If he’d just picked up a niggle and been unable to play, I suspect we would have fared better.

I think that for far too long, we have had a hard luck culture and attitude running through our club and it can become a self-fulfilling prophecy. It seems to be something that is ingrained into our fan-base (perhaps due to a combination of real occurrences and propaganda from the likes of Warnock and McCabe not wanting to take responsibility). Blaming referees, luck, footballing gods etc is something we seem to do an awful lot of. Gary Speed was trying to change that culture during his short reign. The same logic can be applied to the playoff misery. It becomes expected and that takes the belief from the players on the pitch. I think Nigel’s positivity will help us lose these traits if he stays long enough. Or at least, I certainly hope so.
 
Picking up points when playing awful is the key. Whether you class that as luck or the sign of a good team is another thing.
 
GreasyChipBeattie said:
I was just thinking about how we played and won at Peterbro and that now they've sacked their manager, it could well become much harder to beat them at their place for our future promotion rivals.
Likewise, Wigan and Millwall seemed to find it difficult to adjust and were there for the taking in the first few games. Had we been down to play them already, would it have made a difference to the overall outcome of our season - possibly like last season when Bristol City came to us first game?
It just got me wondering how much circumstance contributes to a team's success?
Simple stuff like playing against teams when they have loads of injuries, are in a run of bad form or resting players for a cup semi or summat similar.
Would love to have the time to analyse, but don't...or rather can't be arsed, so I suppose I'll just have to go on wondering!!
Click to expand...

You could say we were unlucky to play Gillingham when we did. They're unlikely to keep that form up all season.
Peterborough would have been mid-table with 7 points if they'd beaten us and probably wouldn't have sacked their manager. So we made our own luck there.
 
I think luck can come into it in terms of injuries.
We've got injured players at the moment on the road to recovery and theoretically we should be stronger later in the season but if one or two other key players get injured, I'm thinking Edgar definitely, then that could have an impact on our season.
 
coaxingstar71 said:
I think luck can come into it in terms of injuries.
We've got injured players at the moment on the road to recovery and theoretically we should be stronger later in the season but if one or two other key players get injured, I'm thinking Edgar definitely, then that could have an impact on our season.
Click to expand...
Exactly. The biggest element of luck is injuries, IMHO. I recall when Burnley went up they used something like 16 players throughout the whole season (Coyle team, not Dyche). I don't remember us ever doing that.

Similarly, I think Bristol City had a fairly small squad last season.

And whilst you can debate what luck is, there are certainly a lot of things that can go wrong that are beyond the club or the manager's control.
 
BushBlade said:
Exactly. The biggest element of luck is injuries, IMHO. I recall when Burnley went up they used something like 16 players throughout the whole season (Coyle team, not Dyche). I don't remember us ever doing that.

Similarly, I think Bristol City had a fairly small squad last season.

And whilst you can debate what luck is, there are certainly a lot of things that can go wrong that are beyond the club or the manager's control.
Click to expand...
Of course, ideally, you'd have a back up squad capable of filling any gaps caused by injuries. Although I think our squad is healthier than most in this league, there are certain positions (notably CB) where we would be vulnerable.

I was talking to a friend who's a Chessy fan this morning and he was saying that this is their biggest problem, that the "bench" is weak. I suppose it's the old cliche about knowing how good your squad is by what's on the "bench".
 
coaxingstar71 said:
Of course, ideally, you'd have a back up squad capable of filling any gaps caused by injuries. Although I think our squad is healthier than most in this league, there are certain positions (notably CB) where we would be vulnerable.

I was talking to a friend who's a Chessy fan this morning and he was saying that this is their biggest problem, that the "bench" is weak. I suppose it's the old cliche about knowing how good your squad is by what's on the "bench".
Click to expand...
Ideally, if you can afford it and promotion is considered a necessity, you have a big squad.
For clubs like Chessy though, it's probably not an option. You either have a small squad of good players or a big squad of crap. If you're a turd polishing manager you may go for a squad of well organised crap who are fighting for their places so have to give '110%'. If you're a cultured manager you may go for a smaller squad of players who can actually play and hope to supplement it with youth team and emergency loan players.

Even in our case, it can be difficult as how many decent players want to be squad players at a L1 club? For example, if Burn comes then he's coming to play first team football. At some point Collins may well be looking to get regular football to prove to another team he's worth a contract next season and if that happens, our first team will be stronger but the squad won't be.
 
BushBlade said:
Exactly. The biggest element of luck is injuries, IMHO. I recall when Burnley went up they used something like 16 players throughout the whole season (Coyle team, not Dyche). I don't remember us ever doing that.

Similarly, I think Bristol City had a fairly small squad last season.

And whilst you can debate what luck is, there are certainly a lot of things that can go wrong that are beyond the club or the manager's control.
Click to expand...

Looking back on our promotion teams from recent memory, probably one of the main reasons we used more players is that we had Harry and Warnock in charge who both liked a tinker or two. Neil's classic being, hmm Neil Shipperley is playing well, he holds the ball up well and bring the rest of the players into play, I know, I'll spend nearly £2m quid and drop him..... funny, we're not playing as well now.... oh I'll put Shipps back in, oh look how clever I am - cunt!

I wonder how many players Porterfield used in 83/84 or 81/82? Probably not that many?
 
we are in this division due to a catalogue of injuries which crippled us
especially losing Chris Morgan and to even loan 5 players who then got injuries so we had to loan more
you can completely outplay some teams and lose to a dodgy pen or a ridiculous red card
offsides , the complicated nature of it saw liverpool beat Bournemouth who probably deserved to win
things like that could relegate teams
 
You get 46 games to prove yourself better than the rest. That's more than enough to exclude "luck", especially "luck" as ridiculously interpreted by many on here, including report-writers.

"The more I practice; the luckier I get..."

Gary Player - Nine times a Major Champion.
 



coaxingstar71 said:
Looking back on our promotion teams from recent memory, probably one of the main reasons we used more players is that we had Harry and Warnock in charge who both liked a tinker or two. Neil's classic being, hmm Neil Shipperley is playing well, he holds the ball up well and bring the rest of the players into play, I know, I'll spend nearly £2m quid and drop him..... funny, we're not playing as well now.... oh I'll put Shipps back in, oh look how clever I am - cunt!

I wonder how many players Porterfield used in 83/84 or 81/82? Probably not that many?
Click to expand...
Give it a while and someone will tell us.
 
blade too long said:
we are in this division due to a catalogue of injuries which crippled us
especially losing Chris Morgan and to even loan 5 players who then got injuries so we had to loan more
Click to expand...

We're in this division because we were not good enough to stay in the one above. The same reason as we are not in the Premiership. Not sacking Warnock immediately after promotion, failing to strengthen when enjoying a 10 point cushion, appointing Robson, appointing SemiPro, appointing Quickfix....I could go on...

Losers blame luck: Winners take it on the chin and carry on winning.
 
Pinchy said:
We're in this division because we were not good enough to stay in the one above. The same reason as we are not in the Premiership. Not sacking Warnock immediately after promotion, failing to strengthen when enjoying a 10 point cushion, appointing Robson, appointing SemiPro, appointing Quickfix....I could go on...

Losers blame luck: Winners take it on the chin and carry on winning.
Click to expand...

SO YOU THINK THE PLAN WAS TO USE 44 PLAYERS THAT SEASON
 
Throughout any season there are a combination of factors that need to align in order for a side to be successful....whether they can be categorised as good or bad luck is a matter of considerable conjecture (hence the thread). For what its worth I do think luck does play a part BUT........."lucky" teams do not get promoted. What really matters is a strong / talented injury-free squad supported by good leadership, tactics and awareness - those are the key elements in any promotion-winning squad.
 
blade too long said:
SO YOU THINK THE PLAN WAS TO USE 44 PLAYERS THAT SEASON
Click to expand...
It's pretty apparent that after allowing Blackwell all summer to recruit for the forthcoming season then sacking him three games in and appointing a rookie with the brief to 'improve the football' there was no fucking plan.
 
According to the book The Numbers Game we were more unlucky in 2006/07 and not necessarily the worst team by any means. A lot of Football comes down to chance. You could dominate every game by a mile but you might still end up in the play offs because of poor luck but playing better will evidently give you a better chance.
 



Pinchy said:
You get 46 games to prove yourself better than the rest. That's more than enough to exclude "luck", especially "luck" as ridiculously interpreted by many on here, including report-writers.

"The more I practice; the luckier I get..."

Gary Player - Nine times a Major Champion.
Click to expand...

Perhaps Gary's "luckiest" moment is that he managed to quote Jerry Barber (American Golf Pro) in one of his books in the early 60's and, somehow, managed to turn Jerry's quote into his own.
Although the original quote is "The harder I work, the luckier I get".
 
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