How much 'luck' does a team need to be promoted?

[blade too long]

2006 7
at blackburn they got a free kick 4 minutes into 2 minutes of injury time that never was a foul and we ended up losingfrom a wonder strike
at home the luck swung blackburn missed a pen the we missed 2
the biggest bad break was Hulses leg at Chelsea
being denied a valid last minuteequaliser at west ham , one the ref admitted after the game

 

[Lord Bos of Eckington.]

I was just thinking about how we played and won at Peterbro and that now they've sacked their manager, it could well become much harder to beat them at their place for our future promotion rivals.
Likewise, Wigan and Millwall seemed to find it difficult to adjust and were there for the taking in the first few games. Had we been down to play them already, would it have made a difference to the overall outcome of our season - possibly like last season when Bristol City came to us first game?
It just got me wondering how much circumstance contributes to a team's success?
Simple stuff like playing against teams when they have loads of injuries, are in a run of bad form or resting players for a cup semi or summat similar.
Would love to have the time to analyse, but don't...or rather can't be arsed, so I suppose I'll just have to go on wondering!!

Depends how you interpret-ate or derive at the answer. Have we had over the years, season after season .

Good Planning

Good Coaching

Good Preperation

Good Talent

Good Team Work

If the answer is no to all , or part , theres your answer.

UTB

 

[BushBlade]

According to the book The Numbers Game we were more unlucky in 2006/07 and not necessarily the worst team by any means. A lot of Football comes down to chance. You could dominate every game by a mile but you might still end up in the play offs because of poor luck but playing better will evidently give you a better chance.

Is that the book that applies statistical analysis to demonstrate why games that are relatively low scoring (like football) are more likely to produce shock results than games where scoring is 'easy' like basketball?

 

[blade too long]

what about something like this , a goal that wom a play off


you have to admit there a slight element of fortune in it

 

[Pinchy]

All these years I've laboured under the gross misapprehension that the best teams, those with the most talented footballers, ultimately win the most matches, points and trophies.

I now realise how stupid I've been. We should abandon matches entirely and let the coin toss before kick-off determine the result. We can then all fuck off home, miss the traffic, and listen to Praise and Grumble discussing the Ref's two-headed coin and how our tactically inept manager doesn't know his head from his tail...

I've wasted half my life admiring Pele, Platini, Beckenbauer, Currie and Messi when all along their sublime skills were irrelevant.

Gutted....

 

[Pinchy]

what about something like this , a goal that wom a play off


you have to admit there a slight element of fortune in it

What about it? Had the keeper done his job in a professional manner there would have been no problem and his team would have prevailed. Poor goalkeeping, I'm afraid.

 

[BushBlade]

All these years I've laboured under the gross misapprehension that the best teams, those with the most talented footballers, ultimately win the most matches, points and trophies.

I now realise how stupid I've been. We should abandon matches entirely and let the coin toss before kick-off determine the result. We can then all fuck off home, miss the traffic, and listen to Praise and Grumble discussing the Ref's two-headed coin and how our tactically inept manager doesn't know his head from his tail...

I've wasted half my life admiring Pele, Platini, Beckenbauer, Currie and Messi when all along their sublime skills were irrelevant.

Gutted....

Said Wenger.

 

[blade too long]

theres fine margins in football its one of the components that you cant control
you can work hard be brilliant but unless at times you get the rub your doomed
its getting to play teams when they arent in a purple patch
or like west ham got on the final day get to play a man utd side trying to stay fit for a cup final
whereas we played them at full strength full on chasing the points
had man utd still needed 3 points we might still be there such are the margins

 

[blade too long]

What about it? Had the keeper done his job in a professional manner there would have been no problem and his team would have prevailed. Poor goalkeeping, I'm afraid.

brilliant of the forward putting all that back spin on youd argue as well then
hed obviously planned it

 

[Pinchy]

brilliant of the forward putting all that back spin on youd argue as well then
hed obviously planned it

Not at all but it happened! Which player ever plans for his shot to hit the bar before going in? What is the keeper doing running off before the ball is dead? I'd sack the clown. Just the sort of thing Krusty Kenny would have done.

 

[Pinchy]

theres fine margins in football its one of the components that you cant control
you can work hard be brilliant but unless at times you get the rub your doomed
its getting to play teams when they arent in a purple patch
or like west ham got on the final day get to play a man utd side trying to stay fit for a cup final
whereas we played them at full strength full on chasing the points
had man utd still needed 3 points we might still be there such are the margins

You control it by being sufficiently superior to the opposition. Like Brazil 70, various Liverpool teams and the Arsenal Invincibles. It works. History demonstrates conclusively that the best teams get the best results. Only in s2 are people daft enough to suggest otherwise..

I'm done now. You carry on tossing your coin....

 

[Pinchy]

Said Wenger.

Yes, a complete failure is our Arsene. Give me Dinosaur Dave or 'Ol Big Nose anytime...

 

[Sothall_Blade]

Looking back on our promotion teams from recent memory, probably one of the main reasons we used more players is that we had Harry and Warnock in charge who both liked a tinker or two. Neil's classic being, hmm Neil Shipperley is playing well, he holds the ball up well and bring the rest of the players into play, I know, I'll spend nearly £2m quid and drop him..... funny, we're not playing as well now.... oh I'll put Shipps back in, oh look how clever I am - cunt!

I wonder how many players Porterfield used in 83/84 or 81/82? Probably not that many?

The 1981-82 first team was something like:-
Waugh
Cutbush McPhail Kenworthy Garner
Morris Matthews Trusson Brazil
Edwards Hatton

Others:- Casey, Moore, Charles, Neville, Wiggan
Possibly:- Richardson?, Tomlinson?, King?

Darren will hopefully be along to correct me and fill in the blanks shortly

 

[blade too long]

Not at all but it happened! Which player ever plans for his shot to hit the bar before going in? What is the keeper doing running off before the ball is dead? I'd sack the clown. Just the sort of thing Krusty Kenny would have done.

Id guess 9i0% of keepers would think when it hit the bar and went into space , it was over with

 

[Darren]

The 1981-82 first team was something like:-
Waugh
Cutbush McPhail Kenworthy Garner
Morris Matthews Trusson Brazil
Edwards Hatton

Others:- Casey, Moore, Neville, Wiggan
Possibly:- Richardson?, Tomlinson?, King?

Darren will hopefully be along to correct me and fill in the blanks shortly

Cutbush went the previous season and Brazil only played once as sub. From memory rough appearances (starts only) were

Waugh 45
Hatton 45
Kenworthy 45
Trusson 44
Edwards 41
Garner 34
MacPhail 25
Matthews 25
Houston 24
Morris 23
Neville 23
Charles 22
Richardson 19
King 19
Ryan 19
McAlle 18
Casey 12
Moore 4
Tibbott 3
Wiggan 3
Broddle 1
Conroy 1

So plus Brazil, we used 23 players that season.

In 83-4 we used:

Waugh
Garner
Kenworthy
Morris
Trusson
Edwards
Charles
Brazil
Henderson
McHale
Arnott
Atkins
West
Ross
P. Smith
Stancliffe
Heffernan
Bolton
Philliskirk
Tomlinson
Cockerill

So 21 there.

 

[Sothall_Blade]

Cutbush went the previous season and Brazil only played once as sub. From memory rough appearances (starts only) were

Waugh 45
Hatton 45
Kenworthy 45
Trusson 44
Edwards 41
Garner 34
MacPhail 25
Matthews 25
Houston 24
Morris 23
Neville 23
Charles 22
Richardson 19
King 19
Ryan 19
McAlle 18
Casey 12
Moore 4
Tibbott 3
Wiggan 3
Broddle 1
Conroy 1

So plus Brazil, we used 23 players that season.

In 83-4 we used:

Waugh
Garner
Kenworthy
Morris
Trusson
Edwards
Charles
Brazil
Henderson
McHale
Arnott
Atkins
West
Ross
P. Smith
Stancliffe
Heffernan
Bolton
Philliskirk
Tomlinson
Cockerill

So 21 there.

Who is McAlle from 1981-82? I don't remember him and neither does the internet. Do you mean Ray McHale?

 

[Darren]

Who is McAlle from 1981-82? I don't remember him and neither does the internet. Do you mean Ray McHale?

No, John McAlle. long career at Wolves as centre back. Signed in summer 81 and then sent out on loan to Derby in March 82, signing for them permanently the following month

 

[Darren]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_McAlle

 

[Sothall_Blade]

No, John McAlle. long career at Wolves as centre back. Signed in summer 81 and then sent out on loan to Derby in March 82, signing for them permanently the following month

Ok thanks. I still don't remember him though



I loved those shirts!

 

[BeatleBlade]

Is that the book that applies statistical analysis to demonstrate why games that are relatively low scoring (like football) are more likely to produce shock results than games where scoring is 'easy' like basketball?

Yeah, that's the one. Still working my way through it, I know Adkins likes it and Soccernomics as he referred to it in his Q&A.

 

[Grappler]

I don't know. Were we unlucky that Ched got sent down when he did? Or were we sitting on a time bomb that shouldn't have played a part at all that season after what he'd done that previous summer? That season I didn't feel lucky at all, whenever we went behind I had complete confidence that Evans would get us back in the game, but in hindsight were we "lucky" to have him playing as long as he did!? We only had 4-5 games to win when he went down and we couldn't even manage that.

We also had Harry out for games on a red card and Kevin McDonald watching from the side lines on crutches for the last few games, so effectively, the spine of the team was missing.

 

[BushBlade]

Yes, a complete failure is our Arsene. Give me Dinosaur Dave or 'Ol Big Nose anytime...

Or George Graham?

 

[Punk Blade]

The best teams usually win the league, but there are other things to be won. Sometimes a team may win a cup or get to a final through the 'luck' of the draw (see Germany's reward for being thumped 5-1 by England in qualifying - a bye to the 2002 WC final). What about playoffs? No guarantees the best team over 46 games gets promoted, and we should know!

And it isn't always the 'best' team over 46 games - think back to Donny a few years ago, staring the playoffs in the face after giving away a last minute penalty then 30 seconds later snatching the title. Were Donny the best team over 46 games purely because Brentford hit the bar?

That's mostly in response to Pinchy (who clearly misses the point), but I haven't tagged or quoted because he's left us to toss our coins.

 

[Silent Blade]

Ok thanks. I still don't remember him though

View attachment 13230

I loved those shirts!

Ernie Moss is the Port Vale player who won this aerial battle

 

[blade too long]

You control it by being sufficiently superior to the opposition. Like Brazil 70, various Liverpool teams and the Arsenal Invincibles. It works. History demonstrates conclusively that the best teams get the best results. Only in s2 are people daft enough to suggest otherwise..

I'm done now. You carry on tossing your coin....

we dont have any brazilians and cant call up players
and are a fair few pounds behind buying a championship now called prem winning team
All teams though still need deflections to go in occasionally, seen many a 1-0 win by both teams mentioned from shots that got a little help

https://www.bing.com/videos/search?...&mid=389D4A3D422743EA28EA389D4A3D422743EA28EA

 

[William Henry Foulkes]

Isn't the obvious (and correct) answer to the OP that over the course of, say, a 46 game season luck will even itself out.

Over the short period of a 2 or 3 game play-off then luck may well play a part.

 

[William Henry Foulkes]

...and then they carry on winning...

The assertion included they take it on the chin. Sometimes they don't. Mourinho and Ferguson are two good/bad examples

 

[William Henry Foulkes]

What about it? Had the keeper done his job in a professional manner there would have been no problem and his team would have prevailed. Poor goalkeeping, I'm afraid.

I'm sorry but this is flat out nonsense.

 

[Pinchy]

I'm sorry but this is flat out nonsense.

Why?

 

[William Henry Foulkes]

Why?

If you can watch that clip and come to that conclusion then I think we're way past the point of no return.