Graphs After Matchday 28 – We Double Up on Not-So-Dull City

[ucandomagic]

I saved this until today so that I could include the full week-end league table, bar Sunderland v Boro.

An open game from start to finish – unsurprisingly, as we went ahead through Jebbo after just 4 minutes. It could (and probably should) have been 4-1 at half-time as Jebbo, Jayden and Sander all missed really good chances and Wes had to save a one-on-one. Second half was tighter, without any very clear chances. Overall, both teams pressed really well and we created nearly all of the best chances. Jayden was my man-of-the-match again.

Anyway, as usual, a few graphs to put everything in perspective:-

Graph 1 is a different one this week – just for one reason. We all remember 2016/17 and Wilder’s 100 point season – well, Graph 1 shows that on 57 points after 28 games we are in exactly the same position as in 2016/17 – and this is the Championship. We really are on the march with Hecky’s Army. Mind you, we did win the last 8 games of the season on the bounce in 16/17!

Graph 1




Graph 2 is the usual multiple comparison graph with our best recent Championship seasons. Graph 2 shows that after 28 games, on 57 points we are still just 5 points behind Warnock’s 05/06 season – which had a remarkable 62 points after 28 games. We are, however, now 7 points ahead of our 50 points in Wilder’s promotion season in 18/19. So this continues to be our best Championship season for a long time.

Graph 2




Graph 3 compares where we are to my benchmark results for each game to achieve an automatic promotion or a playoff season. – You can see from Graph 3 that, on 57 points, we are still 1 point ahead of my Autos Certain line and still a huge 11 points ahead of my Playoffs Certain results.

Graph 3




Finally, the League Table, and now a 13 point gap to third place. As I hinted at in the title – this was our first double over anybody this season. Should be the first of many.

Although our gap to 3rd seems solid, behind us Watford, Boro, Blackburn, Luton, Norwich and Millwall all only have only a fag paper between them. So at least one of them is likely to have a good run in, and we can take nothing for granted.

League Table


So, onwards and upwards. A relaxing pressure-off FA Cup trip to London Bridge next week!

I’m still waiting for the Mansour Magic!

UTB & Slava Ukraini

 

[Greenwich Blade]

I saved this until today so that I could include the full week-end league table, bar Sunderland v Boro.

An open game from start to finish – unsurprisingly, as we went ahead through Jebbo after just 4 minutes. It could (and probably should) have been 4-1 at half-time as Jebbo, Jayden and Sander all missed really good chances and Wes had to save a one-on-one. Second half was tighter, without any very clear chances. Overall, both teams pressed really well and we created nearly all of the best chances. Jayden was my man-of-the-match again.

Anyway, as usual, a few graphs to put everything in perspective:-

Graph 1 is a different one this week – just for one reason. We all remember 2016/17 and Wilder’s 100 point season – well, Graph 1 shows that on 57 points after 28 games we are in exactly the same position as in 2016/17 – and this is the Championship. We really are on the march with Hecky’s Army. Mind you, we did win the last 8 games of the season on the bounce in 16/17!

Graph 1
View attachment 151699



Graph 2 is the usual multiple comparison graph with our best recent Championship seasons. Graph 2 shows that after 28 games, on 57 points we are still just 5 points behind Warnock’s 05/06 season – which had a remarkable 62 points after 28 games. We are, however, now 7 points ahead of our 50 points in Wilder’s promotion season in 18/19. So this continues to be our best Championship season for a long time.

Graph 2
View attachment 151700



Graph 3 compares where we are to my benchmark results for each game to achieve an automatic promotion or a playoff season. – You can see from Graph 3 that, on 57 points, we are still 1 point ahead of my Autos Certain line and still a huge 11 points ahead of my Playoffs Certain results.

Graph 3
View attachment 151701



Finally, the League Table, and now a 13 point gap to third place. As I hinted at in the title – this was our first double over anybody this season. Should be the first of many.

Although our gap to 3rd seems solid, behind us Watford, Boro, Blackburn, Luton, Norwich and Millwall all only have only a fag paper between them. So at least one of them is likely to have a good run in, and we can take nothing for granted.

League Table
View attachment 151703

So, onwards and upwards. A relaxing pressure-off FA Cup trip to London Bridge next week!

I’m still waiting for the Mansour Magic!

UTB & Slava Ukraini

Excellent stuff! Cheered me up no end, that has.

 

[Tickhill Blade]

Is 13 points the biggest gap over 3rd that we've ever had in this division? I can't remember a bigger one, I had a look back at 05/06 and the furthest we were ahead was 12 in November after the amazing start.

 

[ThirdGenBlade]

I saved this until today so that I could include the full week-end league table, bar Sunderland v Boro.

An open game from start to finish – unsurprisingly, as we went ahead through Jebbo after just 4 minutes. It could (and probably should) have been 4-1 at half-time as Jebbo, Jayden and Sander all missed really good chances and Wes had to save a one-on-one. Second half was tighter, without any very clear chances. Overall, both teams pressed really well and we created nearly all of the best chances. Jayden was my man-of-the-match again.

Anyway, as usual, a few graphs to put everything in perspective:-

Graph 1 is a different one this week – just for one reason. We all remember 2016/17 and Wilder’s 100 point season – well, Graph 1 shows that on 57 points after 28 games we are in exactly the same position as in 2016/17 – and this is the Championship. We really are on the march with Hecky’s Army. Mind you, we did win the last 8 games of the season on the bounce in 16/17!

Graph 1
View attachment 151699



Graph 2 is the usual multiple comparison graph with our best recent Championship seasons. Graph 2 shows that after 28 games, on 57 points we are still just 5 points behind Warnock’s 05/06 season – which had a remarkable 62 points after 28 games. We are, however, now 7 points ahead of our 50 points in Wilder’s promotion season in 18/19. So this continues to be our best Championship season for a long time.

Graph 2
View attachment 151700



Graph 3 compares where we are to my benchmark results for each game to achieve an automatic promotion or a playoff season. – You can see from Graph 3 that, on 57 points, we are still 1 point ahead of my Autos Certain line and still a huge 11 points ahead of my Playoffs Certain results.

Graph 3
View attachment 151701



Finally, the League Table, and now a 13 point gap to third place. As I hinted at in the title – this was our first double over anybody this season. Should be the first of many.

Although our gap to 3rd seems solid, behind us Watford, Boro, Blackburn, Luton, Norwich and Millwall all only have only a fag paper between them. So at least one of them is likely to have a good run in, and we can take nothing for granted.

League Table
View attachment 151703

So, onwards and upwards. A relaxing pressure-off FA Cup trip to London Bridge next week!

I’m still waiting for the Mansour Magic!

UTB & Slava Ukraini

Hi U - Great visuals - really helps us to understand our position and put it into the overall context.

I get that 90 is usually a certain target for at least second place - and I agree with the 6 teams that you list as being the best positioned to challenge us. However, from the 6, I think only Boro and Norwich are capable of a sustained 2.5 points per game.

As a result, if Boro don’t win tomorrow I think we can be almost certain that 88 will be enough - and that total will probably continue to reduce.

Thanks again and UTB.

 

[Oohaah! Bob Bookah!]

From another thread

3rd-placed #WatfordFC are closer to yesterday's opponents, 20th-placed #RUFC, in the Championship table, than they are to 2nd-placed #SUFC. That's how far clear the top 2 are. Rotherham to Watford: -13pts, -12GD; Watford to Sheffield United: -13pts -19GD. Automatic has gone.

 

[MunXy]

We have 8 of the bottom12 teams to play, if we win those and at least one of the top 12, I'd say promotion is certain.

 

[Trigger Blade]

I love these graphs and especially the coloured league table.

Although we still have more of the top half teams to play, we’ve contrived to have lost only once to a top half team (Watford first game of the season) and four times to bottom half teams, although I think QPR were top half at the time and have slipped since.

 

[Old Programme seller]

Fantastic set of statistics thank you.

I try not to get carried away with averages as we only need a couple of bad results and all the hard work we’ve put in is lost, our run has been nothing less than phenomenal but so has Middlesbroughs as well as WBAs although that’s just come to an end. Cliche time is one match at a time.

thanks again

 

[blade67]

I saved this until today so that I could include the full week-end league table, bar Sunderland v Boro.

An open game from start to finish – unsurprisingly, as we went ahead through Jebbo after just 4 minutes. It could (and probably should) have been 4-1 at half-time as Jebbo, Jayden and Sander all missed really good chances and Wes had to save a one-on-one. Second half was tighter, without any very clear chances. Overall, both teams pressed really well and we created nearly all of the best chances. Jayden was my man-of-the-match again.

Anyway, as usual, a few graphs to put everything in perspective:-

Graph 1 is a different one this week – just for one reason. We all remember 2016/17 and Wilder’s 100 point season – well, Graph 1 shows that on 57 points after 28 games we are in exactly the same position as in 2016/17 – and this is the Championship. We really are on the march with Hecky’s Army. Mind you, we did win the last 8 games of the season on the bounce in 16/17!

Graph 1
View attachment 151699



Graph 2 is the usual multiple comparison graph with our best recent Championship seasons. Graph 2 shows that after 28 games, on 57 points we are still just 5 points behind Warnock’s 05/06 season – which had a remarkable 62 points after 28 games. We are, however, now 7 points ahead of our 50 points in Wilder’s promotion season in 18/19. So this continues to be our best Championship season for a long time.

Graph 2
View attachment 151700



Graph 3 compares where we are to my benchmark results for each game to achieve an automatic promotion or a playoff season. – You can see from Graph 3 that, on 57 points, we are still 1 point ahead of my Autos Certain line and still a huge 11 points ahead of my Playoffs Certain results.

Graph 3
View attachment 151701



Finally, the League Table, and now a 13 point gap to third place. As I hinted at in the title – this was our first double over anybody this season. Should be the first of many.

Although our gap to 3rd seems solid, behind us Watford, Boro, Blackburn, Luton, Norwich and Millwall all only have only a fag paper between them. So at least one of them is likely to have a good run in, and we can take nothing for granted.

League Table
View attachment 151703

So, onwards and upwards. A relaxing pressure-off FA Cup trip to London Bridge next week!

I’m still waiting for the Mansour Magic!

UTB & Slava Ukraini

Only 7 games against the bottom half compared to 11 against the top half. Plenty of work left to do

 

[Alex Cheeseright]

Didn't realize our away form was so good. Conceding only one or no goals with one exception...that nightmare at Stoke. As the song goes... " promotion is soon, uuunnnited"

 

[Alex Cheeseright]

Oh sorry, two against Boro. Still, pretty impressive

 

[Flatulent_Bob]

Great data, just one point about the chasing pack, for one to seriously threaten us they need to beat all the teams around them in those match ups. Any draw or defeat in those games seriously damages any ambition of autos that both teams may have.
Another element of that dynamic which isn’t getting mentioned is the advantage to us of all those teams being close to each other. They’ll all have a nervous eye over their shoulder of dropping out the playoffs should any points be lost. Again, draws are no good for anyone so everyone will be going for wins, and open games mean anyone can will it.
All in all it makes it a significant challenge for one team to emerge winning all their games from a group of similarly resourced and talented teams and possibly the best equipped of them dropped points to Rotherham yesterday. At some point they’ll all settle for playoff security more weary of those behind than catching us. The longer we can keep the current gap in place while they attempt their charge, the sooner we’ll break their hearts and the gap will eventually grow as they look to consolidate their positions.

 

[Trigger Blade]

Fantastic set of statistics thank you.

I try not to get carried away with averages as we only need a couple of bad results and all the hard work we’ve put in is lost, our run has been nothing less than phenomenal but so has Middlesbroughs as well as WBAs although that’s just come to an end. Cliche time is one match at a time.

thanks again

After we played West Brom on 29th October, the gap between us and them was 15 points, 11 games on and it’s 16 points. On the same dates, the gap between us and Boro was 12 points, it’s now 15, although it could be back to 12 points later.

As you say, they’ve both been on great runs, but they haven’t closed the gap and now have 11 games fewer to do so.

60 years of following United has taught me never to count chickens and also to believe that if it can go wrong it will

 

[Old Programme seller]

After we played West Brom on 29th October, the gap between us and them was 15 points, 11 games on and it’s 16 points. On the same dates, the gap between us and Boro was 12 points, it’s now 15, although it could be back to 12 points later.

As you say, they’ve both been on great runs, but they haven’t closed the gap and now have 11 games fewer to do so.

60 years of following United has taught me never to count chickens and also to believe that if it can go wrong it will

If it can go wrong it will go wrong is my worst fear

 

[GreasyChipBeattie]

I reckon we'll get 30 more points and finish on 87 which should be enough.

 

[ThirdGenBlade]

Hi U - Great visuals - really helps us to understand our position and put it into the overall context.

I get that 90 is usually a certain target for at least second place - and I agree with the 6 teams that you list as being the best positioned to challenge us. However, from the 6, I think only Boro and Norwich are capable of a sustained 2.5 points per game.

As a result, if Boro don’t win tomorrow I think we can be almost certain that 88 will be enough - and that total will probably continue to reduce.

Thanks again and UTB.

Continuing with my above thoughts, now the Boro game has been played.

As I said, I think that the best that any of our chasers will average is 2.5. Looking at who they are - only Boro, Norwich and West Brom are strong enough to do that over 18 games - so that would produce 87 points maximum behind us.

So 88 is probably the absolute maximum that we will need. Another 3 or 4 good results, and it could be a smooth run in…
…but no audit of poultry just yet!