Compared with last season...

[Ollessendro]

Aye, but a lowly 41 would have been enough for safety in the Championship last year.....

In the last 10 seasons the points needed to stay up has been 41, 43, 48, 47. 53, 43, 43, 51, 52 and 47. That makes the magic number 43 or 47 (depending on whether you use the mode or median/mean).

However, with 4 teams looking way worse than everyone else it looks like a low score might be needed again this year. Bristol's (4th from bottom) projected points tally is 39 points.

 

[Balham]

Aye, but a lowly 41 would have been enough for safety in the Championship last year.....

Only because Pompey had 10 points deducted for their financial irregularities; on a level playing field it would have taken 49 points to guarantee safety.

Leicester were unlucky to go down with 52 points in 2008; most seasons that would have seen them about 17th.

Olle don't forget it could have looked much bleaker for Bristol City had they not snatched a victory from the jaws of defeat on Saturday

 

[Ollessendro]

Only because Pompey had 10 points deducted for their financial irregularities; on a level playing field it would have taken 49 points to guarantee safety.

Leicester were unlucky to go down with 52 points in 2008; most seasons that would have seen them about 17th.

Olle don't forget it could have looked much bleaker for Bristol City had they not snatched a victory from the jaws of defeat on Saturday

Pissed myself at Wednesday's disallowed goal late on. A blatant handall (pen and sending off) and then Madine's goal disallowed because those Piggy twats were arguing!!? Hillarious. Still, on your point: Barnsley would have been 4th from bottom with 18 points and a projected points tally of 39.

Good point about Pompey though. In fact, it may have been even higher as Barnsley and Bristol had basically given up with about a month to go. I remember talking to one of my dad's Dingle mates in April and he described their team as being 'already on the beach'. It does not change the magic numbers too much: 43 and 48.

 

[Ollessendro]

I am a massive geek with a bit of an obsessive compulsive complex. When something is bugging me, I just have to address it. I just could not resist going back over the Championship/Division 1/Division 2 tables right back to when it became 3 points per game. I looked at the points needed to stay up in each of these season and did some basic stats analysis on it. It shows:
· Range: 38 – 53
· Mean: 47.6
· Mode: 47
· Median: 48
The magic number is either 47 or 48. So which one of the Pigs, Dingles and Bristol is going to go on a run and get near that?! The current projected of 4th bottom’s points suggests that the points needed to stay up would be right down at the bottom of the range. Doesn’t really say that much, other than Barnsley, Wednesday, Bristol and Posh are fucking crap. But then the league table shows that anyway (5 points between Ipswich and Bristol/Barnsley). Spreadsheet attached for any saddo’s like me.

 

[Selly]

I am a massive geek with a bit of an obsessive compulsive complex. When something is bugging me, I just have to address it. I just could not resist going back over the Championship/Division 1/Division 2 tables right back to when it became 3 points per game. I looked at the points needed to stay up in each of these season and did some basic stats analysis on it. It shows:
· Range: 38 – 53
· Mean: 47.6
· Mode: 47
· Median: 48
The magic number is either 47 or 48. So which one of the Pigs, Dingles and Bristol is going to go on a run and get near that?! The current projected of 4th bottom’s points suggests that the points needed to stay up would be right down at the bottom of the range. Doesn’t really say that much, other than Barnsley, Wednesday, Bristol and Posh are fucking crap. But then the league table shows that anyway (5 points between Ipswich and Bristol/Barnsley). Spreadsheet attached for any saddo’s like me.

Question: did you remove the effect of points deductions on the figures??

 

[blade too long]

Available at the swfc shop

( may be doctored a little)

 

[JohnDenver]

( may be doctored a little)

A tap-in from 3 yards counts just the same.

 

[Ollessendro]

Question: did you remove the effect of points deductions on the figures??

I classed last year's points needed as 49 (1 point more than Barnsley who finished 4th bottom). Are there others? As far as I am aware there are not. It/they is/are unlikely to change things much from a sample of over 30.

 

[Selly]

I classed last year's points needed as 49 (1 point more than Barnsley who finished 4th bottom). Are there others? As far as I am aware there are not. It/they is/are unlikely to change things much from a sample of over 30.

It was the range that got me thinking. Did someone really stay up (or could have stayed up) with 38 points?? Or were points deductions to blame?

 

[Ollessendro]

It was the range that got me thinking. Did someone really stay up (or could have stayed up) with 38 points?? Or were points deductions to blame?

Good spot. There was a discrepancy. Playing 46 games in the 2nd tier only started in 88/89. The season before it was 44 games and before that 42. So that explains the 38*. Apologies about that. The new stats are: range 43-53, mean 48.3, median 49 and mode 47. So I guess the magic number is 48 (still).

Interestingly, the projection suggest the worst points tally ever for staying up is going to be set this year. (if it does happen I) Hope it is not the Pigs!!!?



* Middlesbourugh stayed up with 40 points in 84/85. Notts County were the 3rd from bottom team with 37 points.
http://www.statto.com/football/stats/england/division-two-old/1984-1985/table

 

[Ollessendro]

double post

 

[grafikhaus]

Match 22, still unbeaten at home, second place. Too many off-form today and I'll settle for that.

 

[Ollessendro]

(as we drew with Tranmere at home last season) we're still on +2.58 points from the equivalent games from last season. Bit disappointing today. However if we keep on with the same results then I think we'll go up. 83 points could well be enough. Anyone worried about Brentford? Are they emerging as serious title contenders? I think we'll see Tranmere drop away, but I expect MK to stay there. Looking at the top few there seems little between the teams.

See how a win for the Pigs has completely transformed things at the bottom of the Championship? I told people not to get carried away. At 5pm they were looking like they would be bottom and now they are 4th from bottom and a win away from overtaking Ipswich.

 

[Selly]

If we continue matching results we will end up with 92-93 points.

You wouldn't think we could fail to go p again with a total like that, but if any club could....

Worth pointing out that if 83 is enough, we will actually be able to finish on -7 compared to last season...

 

[ghandi]

(as we drew with Tranmere at home last season) we're still on +2.58 points from the equivalent games from last season. Bit disappointing today. However if we keep on with the same results then I think we'll go up. 83 points could well be enough. Anyone worried about Brentford? Are they emerging as serious title contenders? I think we'll see Tranmere drop away, but I expect MK to stay there. Looking at the top few there seems little between the teams.

See how a win for the Pigs has completely transformed things at the bottom of the Championship? I told people not to get carried away. At 5pm they were looking like they would be bottom and now they are 4th from bottom and a win away from overtaking Ipswich.

They are 2nd from bottom.

 

[oldblade]

They are 2nd from bottom.

And unless 6 points is now the going rate for a win they are not one win away from overtaking Ipswich.

 

[Ollessendro]

They are 2nd from bottom.

ah yeah, apologies. Got mi sen muddled up there. They are still in big trouble, but that spozzy win makes things look a lot better for them. Big win for Posh yest-di. The others (Bristol and Barnsley) look awful though. Like I said last week, the table reflects they are the 4 worse teams in the division.

 

[grafikhaus]

Top, top win, that. The style and manner doesn't matter in games and conditions like that, just the result. Top of the table with the might of Scunthorpe and Hartlepool at home to come. For once, can we not throw away the benefit of hard-earned away points? UTB.

 

[JohnDenver]

We invariably play like utter clowns against Sunny. Come on Santa - see us right this time.

 

[Selly]

And with today's result we are +3.83 for the season.

Howev to maintain that we must win our next two games...

 

[PeterNdlovu081]

Just have a gander at the league table.

How bloody good does that look?

 

[Ollessendro]

I am sure that grafikhaus will be along with his table soon, but a quick calculation shows that our projected points are now 88. Winning today means that we are still on +3.8 points from the equivalent games from last season (as we beat Sunny). We'll need to win on Sat-di n all t maintain that. Good win today. Scunny are poor, but we dispatched them comfortably and professionally. Great to back up all the hard work from Crawley with 3 points. It was necessary with Donny, Tranmere and Brentford all winning. Nice to be still sitting top. Today puts our goal difference up a little too. Despite not scoring that many, our excellent defensive record means our goal difference is pretty good.

 

[Selly]

And with today's result we are +3.83 for the season.

Howev to maintain that we must win our next two games...

Steady as she goes...as you were...

 

[Ashtonsmashton]

As many enjoyed the various graphs last year, and now the season is taking shape, I've knocked this together. Not including today (Orient), at Match 10 we've got 18 points compared to 20 last season. Mind, after Match 12 last season we'd only got 21 points, so a chance to catch up...

Hope it reads OK...

View attachment 5316

I don't believe that is right I have seen others that say we have done better than last season.

 

[Large Mendonca]

At least it's looking like two auto places up for grabs this year, as opposed to just the one (if you know what I mean )

 

[super_pig]

i've only just got my head around this.. the weird thing is that the team aren't as good as last season yet we are doing better and are top.. it's kind of difficult to get your head round it at first

 

[Kenilworth]

i've only just got my head around this.. the weird thing is that the team aren't as good as last season yet we are doing better and are top.. it's kind of difficult to get your head round it at first

Not really. The quality of the opposition is poorer this year than last season.

 

[oldblade]

Not really. The quality of the opposition is poorer this year than last season.

I don't think there's all that much in it.


Yes, Huddersfield, Charlton and Wednesday are (collectively) stronger than Coventry, Portsmouth and Doncaster.


But Swindon, Crawley, Crewe and Shrewsbury are (collectively) stronger than Exeter, Wycombe, Rochdale and Chesterfield.

 

[Ollessendro]

I don't believe that is right I have seen others that say we have done better than last season.

It is a bit of a confusing concept, as last season after 24 games we had 47 points and this season we have 46. Though last season we were third and this season we are 1st (though Brentford would be top if they win their game in hand). However we have not played the same games as last season: that is we have played the same teams (bar promoted and relegated teams) but not in the same order.

There is a clever system that is around that SellyOakBlade introduced to this thread, where we basically compare the fixtures this year with the exact fixtures last year (when possible). You can then compare the points we achieved and this gives the compared to last season figures. For the relegated and promoted teams of last year you add up all the points we got and divide by 3 or 4 (respectively) to get an average and apply it to the newly promoted ot relegated teams of last season*.

It is a fact that from the equivalent games from last season we are doing better this season. However to carry on matching this we will be expected to do the same in the equivalent games going forward. This would mean for example beating MK Dons and Brentford at home (like we did last season) and Notts County and Bournemouth away (again like we did last season). So you should be able to see that there are a few tricky games where it may be difficult to match last season. However we already have a 3 point cushion to play with (so to speak).




* against relegated teams last season (Exeter, Wycombe, Chesterfield and Rochdale) we: at home D, W, W, W meaning 10/4 = 2.5 and away D, L, W, W = 7/4= 1.75. These results should be compared to the teams that came up. Against promoted teams from last season (Charlton, Pigs, Udders) we: at home L, D, L = 1/3 = 0.33 and away L, L, W = 3/3 = 3.

So the last 3 games this season were Tranmere at home (D), Crawley away (1.75) and Scunthorpe at home (W). As our results from thee games were D, W and W we are up 1.25 points from those games. The next 3 games are Hartlepool at home (last season we won), Donny away (1) and Yeovil at home (W). So to match last season we need to beat Hartlepool and Yeovil and draw at Donny.

 

[Ollessendro]

I don't think there's all that much in it.


Yes, Huddersfield, Charlton and Wednesday are (collectively) stronger than Coventry, Portsmouth and Doncaster.


But Swindon, Crawley, Crewe and Shrewsbury are (collectively) stronger than Exeter, Wycombe, Rochdale and Chesterfield.

It is interesting because from watching games I have thought that the quality of opposition is poorer. But it is probably not the case. What seems to be the case is there are no stand out candidates for promotion. Last season is was obvious that Charlton, us, Pigs, MK and Huddersfield were significantly better than the rest. The table this time last year shows this http://www.statto.com/football/stats/england/league-one/2011-2012/table/2012-01-02 However this year it is still wide open at the top. There is a slight gap between 4th and 5th, but it is not like last season http://www.statto.com/football/stats/england/league-one/2012-2013/table At the momentany of the top 6 (even 7) could feasibly get automatic promotion. Nor is it possible (imo) to say for example we are better than MK Dons or Tranmere are better that Swindon(!?).