Bottom Half v Top Half

[PeterNdlovu081]

Strange fixtures this weekend.

(3rd) Bradford v Rochdale (7th)
(15th) Bury v Southend (16th)
(18th) Coventry v Scunthorpe (1st)
(19th) Gillingham v Northampton (6th)
(20th) MK Don's v Walsall (12th)
(13th) Millwall v Bristol Rovers (5th)
(22nd) Oldham v AFC Wimbledon (9th)
(11th) Port Vale v Fleetwood (10th)
(24th) Shrewsbury v Oxford (17th)
(21st) Swindon v Charlton (14th)
(23rd) Chesterfield v Sheffield Utd (4th)
(8th) Peterborough v Bolton (2nd)

 

[DifferentClass]

Come on Cov

 

[bladesmanluke]

Bottom half for me, just. Though it depends on the size of the top half

 

[PokerBlade]

3rd vs 7th
15th vs 16th
10th vs 11th
21st vs 14th
8th vs 2nd

Doesn't seem strange at all.

 

[Ldn_Rd_Blades]

I make that 7 out of 12

 

[PeterNdlovu081]

3rd vs 7th
15th vs 16th
10th vs 11th
21st vs 14th
8th vs 2nd

Doesn't seem strange at all.

Only two home teams playing a team below them?

That's pretty odd.

 

[PokerBlade]

I can't be arsed doing the maths on it, but not really.

 

[PeterNdlovu081]

I can't be arsed doing the maths on it, but not really.

Closest you'll get to top half v bottom half all season.

Bet you any money.

 

[Stretch]

Was speaking to a colleague of mine today who is a Bradford supporter and by all accounts Rochdale normally turn them over at VP, with them returning the favour at Spotland. Hope that trend continues tomorrow. Scunny have to slip up at some point as well.....don't they?

 

[Pittsburg Blade]

Sometimes the bottom half is out of action and you have to use the top half.

 

[BigBed]

Thought this was a "tips or arse" type thread!!??
Disappointing yet again..........

 

[Pinchy]

What utter bollox, Nuddy. Half the games are between teams in the same 'half'. The ones mentioned by Poker, together with 24 v 17.

Strange fixtures: Top v Top and Bottom v Bottom. Very odd.

 

[Kenilworth]

I believe that top v bottom and bottom v top has odds of 69:1

 

[PeterNdlovu081]

Jesus. Tough crowd

Sorry it wasn't the EXACT bottom half versus the EXACT top half.

Bet that only happens once every 50 years.

 

[Cassius Kray]

Ok so I think the maths works out like this:

It doesn’t matter which team you draw first, so the odds are 24/24 = 1. This is always the case with the first of the two teams you draw (the next match drawn will be 22/22, then 20/20 etc).

The team you draw against them has to be in the opposite side of the group. For the first match there are 12 options from the 23 teams, so the odds are 12/23.

The odds that the first draw is a top/bottom split is therefore 24/24 x 12/23 = 12/23.

For the second match, the odds are 22/22 and 11/21 (= 11/21).

The odds that both of the first two matches are top v bottom is therefore 12/23 x 11/21.

For the third match the odds are 10/19, and so on.

The odds for every draw are as follows:

12/23 = 0.52

11/21 = 0.52

10/19 = 0.53

9/17 = 0.53

8/15 = 0.53

7/13 = 0.54

6/11 = 0.55

5/9 = 0.56

4/7 = 0.57

3/5 = 0.6

2/3 = 0.67

1/1 = 1

Multiplying them all together, the odds of every match being a top v bottom split is 0.001515 - in other words, 0.15%. That's pretty unlikely.

Now, the fact that each week’s fixtures affects the following week’s possible draws means it’s difficult to extrapolate perfectly over the season, but if we were to ignore that and assume that each week the draw is done completely anew then the odds in a single season of this happening is 46 x 0.001515 = 6.97% (you might want to argue that there are 23 pairs of matches, which would make it 3.48%).

6.97% is very roughly equivalent to it happening once every 14 seasons.

 

[Superblades]

I fancy us to close the gap on the teams above us. Coventry are 4 unbeaten and the other 2 have tough games, we just need to make sure we do our part and win.

 

[GreasyChipBeattie]

Ok so I think the maths works out like this:

It doesn’t matter which team you draw first, so the odds are 24/24 = 1. This is always the case with the first of the two teams you draw (the next match drawn will be 22/22, then 20/20 etc).

The team you draw against them has to be in the opposite side of the group. For the first match there are 12 options from the 23 teams, so the odds are 12/23.

The odds that the first draw is a top/bottom split is therefore 24/24 x 12/23 = 12/23.

For the second match, the odds are 22/22 and 11/21 (= 11/21).

The odds that both of the first two matches are top v bottom is therefore 12/23 x 11/21.

For the third match the odds are 10/19, and so on.

The odds for every draw are as follows:

12/23 = 0.52

11/21 = 0.52

10/19 = 0.53

9/17 = 0.53

8/15 = 0.53

7/13 = 0.54

6/11 = 0.55

5/9 = 0.56

4/7 = 0.57

3/5 = 0.6

2/3 = 0.67

1/1 = 1

Multiplying them all together, the odds of every match being a top v bottom split is 0.001515 - in other words, 0.15%. That's pretty unlikely.

Now, the fact that each week’s fixtures affects the following week’s possible draws means it’s difficult to extrapolate perfectly over the season, but if we were to ignore that and assume that each week the draw is done completely anew then the odds in a single season of this happening is 46 x 0.001515 = 6.97% (you might want to argue that there are 23 pairs of matches, which would make it 3.48%).

6.97% is very roughly equivalent to it happening once every 14 seasons.

Out of interest Cassius, in every 14 seasons there are an average of 3 and a half leap years.
Does it make any difference if any of those leap year days are on a Tuesday when there might be fixtures?
And if there are, would the attendance attendance figures be increased by 1/366th to accommodate it?

 

[GreasyChipBeattie]

(3rd) Bradford v Rochdale (7th) D
(15th) Bury v Southend (16th) H
(18th) Coventry v Scunthorpe (1st) H
(19th) Gillingham v Northampton (6th) D
(20th) MK Don's v Walsall (12th) H
(13th) Millwall v Bristol Rovers (5th) D
(22nd) Oldham v AFC Wimbledon (9th) A
(11th) Port Vale v Fleetwood (10th) H
(24th) Shrewsbury v Oxford (17th) H
(21st) Swindon v Charlton (14th) A
(23rd) Chesterfield v Sheffield Utd (4th) D
(8th) Peterborough v Bolton (2nd) H

 

[Ldn_Rd_Blades]

Ok so I think the maths works out like this:

It doesn’t matter which team you draw first, so the odds are 24/24 = 1. This is always the case with the first of the two teams you draw (the next match drawn will be 22/22, then 20/20 etc).

The team you draw against them has to be in the opposite side of the group. For the first match there are 12 options from the 23 teams, so the odds are 12/23.

The odds that the first draw is a top/bottom split is therefore 24/24 x 12/23 = 12/23.

For the second match, the odds are 22/22 and 11/21 (= 11/21).

The odds that both of the first two matches are top v bottom is therefore 12/23 x 11/21.

For the third match the odds are 10/19, and so on.

The odds for every draw are as follows:

12/23 = 0.52

11/21 = 0.52

10/19 = 0.53

9/17 = 0.53

8/15 = 0.53

7/13 = 0.54

6/11 = 0.55

5/9 = 0.56

4/7 = 0.57

3/5 = 0.6

2/3 = 0.67

1/1 = 1

Multiplying them all together, the odds of every match being a top v bottom split is 0.001515 - in other words, 0.15%. That's pretty unlikely.

Now, the fact that each week’s fixtures affects the following week’s possible draws means it’s difficult to extrapolate perfectly over the season, but if we were to ignore that and assume that each week the draw is done completely anew then the odds in a single season of this happening is 46 x 0.001515 = 6.97% (you might want to argue that there are 23 pairs of matches, which would make it 3.48%).

6.97% is very roughly equivalent to it happening once every 14 seasons.

Are season ticket holders that don't go included in those figures?