Automatic Promotion Target Supporting Data

[BladeInIreland]

Fair point, however if our points total is more than 3rd place this season we’ll go up. So that’s the number to worry about.

If our points total is less than 2nd place we won't . Tbf I would also think about it as what sis more than third. Never thought about the other way which is equally as valid.

 

[Barney Rubble]

You can look at this two ways: Ipswich could have got 91 points and still gone up or Leeds needed 96 points to go up. It depends what you treat as variable and what as fixed. Both are perfectly valid.

Well Leeds did the double over Ipswich last season,so 91 points for Ipswich would have been enough, on this occasion. Ipswich did get 4 points off of Southampton though, and if Southampton had won those games, they would have had 91 and Ipswich 92.

 

[Houston_Blade]

If our points total is less than 2nd place we won't . Tbf I would also think about it as what sis more than third. Never thought about the other way which is equally as valid.

If we get more points than 3rd then our points total can’t be less than 2nd!

 

[Lord Eddard Muir]

If we get more points than 3rd then our points total can’t be less than 2nd!

I think it is how many points the second-placed team has that is crucial really.

Think about what the team in third would have needed in order to finish second, that season.

A lot of seasons there's a big gap, and some hypothetical extra team (us) finishing in the middle of that gap still isn't finishing second.

 

[Houston_Blade]

I think it is how many points the second-placed team has that is crucial really.

Think about what the team in third would have needed in order to finish second, that season.

A lot of seasons there's a big gap, and some hypothetical extra team (us) finishing in the middle of that gap still isn't finishing second.

I get it, but if we get more points than 3rd we go up, so that’s the aim.

 

[Blade82]

The 3rd place team’s points tally is often skewed due to a drop off in results once playoffs is looking more likely. Whereas the 2nd place team tend to continue with the momentum that got them there.

On that basis It’s a safer assumption to take this as the number you need or would’ve needed.

 

[Champagneblade]

Cappy asked in my graph thread about my Autos Certain benchmark line, how it was established and whether it is still appropriate in the second half of this season. All of my benchmarks (Autos and Playoffs) are created before the season starts. The Autos Certain line starts with an estimate of the final points total required to finish the season in the Top 2. The teams are grouped into 3 or 4 different quality levels, based on their previous season’s performances, and then I have a model which takes our schedule and comes up with what I believe is the easiest route through our schedule to deliver that final pre-defined total. As a result, comparing our actual results each week against the benchmark as the season progresses is a more realistic comparison than simply comparing against a straight line to the final target.

The end of season target is simply based on historical data. I started doing this a couple of years ago and at that time no team this century, at this level, had ever achieved 90 points and not been in the Top 2. Hence, I took 90 points as a target for the Autos Certain benchmark. Chart 1 below shows the end of season data for the Top 3 teams over the 25 seasons this century. However last year, 2023/24, Leeds did only finish 3rd on 90 points.

Chart 1:
View attachment 202279


You can see from Chart 1 that, before 2024, even 89 points had only been achieved once by the 3rd place team, in 2016 by Brighton. Graph 1 shows visually this variation over 25 years alongside the 90 point line.

Graph 1:
View attachment 202281


So, if last year was different from normal, how does this year compare to last year? Chart 2 shows where we are this year compared to last year at the present stage, and at the end of the season. You can see that the 2 seasons are quite similar, except that by this time last year Leicester had established a good gap at the top of the table. In both seasons there are realistically 4 teams with a chance of Top 2, with the 4th team on 51 points.

Chart 2:
View attachment 202282


So, if we are possibly in another atypical season, what should be the likely target? Blades have the easiest remaining fixtures and Leeds have the hardest. Taking the performances to date of the Top 4, and the strengths of the teams to face in the final 19 games gives the very acceptable end of season Blades forecast in Chart 3.

Chart 3:
View attachment 202283

So, if Chart 3 is about correct for the other 3 teams, Blades would actually have a target of 92 points to achieve second place.

All of this is highly speculative with 19 games to go, so I will keep the 90 point target for the present but will review it at the 10 and 5 games-to-go points to check that it still appropriate. Significant injuries or transfers in and out can always change the situation.

Hopefully, this hasn’t been too detailed, but in reality I think that the graphs and charts tell the underlying story on their own.

UTB & Slava Ukraini!

So never a point in time where 2 points per game didn’t get you up?