Big Scary Leeds

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Selly said:
I think its W3, D1, L3...

View attachment 207676

Takes us to 93 if repeated.

Our worst 6 game stretch is also gathering 10 points - on 7 (overlapping in places) occasions:

twice in this run (after games 11 and 12)
View attachment 207677

and 5 times in this run, after games 25, 26, 27, 28, 29

View attachment 207678

I suspect if we replicated that over the next 6 then our fate would not be in our hands going into the final day
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Well spotted. Ignore my over optimistic point:-(
 

Stats, forecasts, previous runs etc are good ways to base the next 7 on but I think they're all fairly meaningless. Let's be honest, all 3 teams have the capability keep pressure on each other and that will count for an awful lot.

We know full well Leeds are capable of a bottling and we for certain know we can manage that too. If I'm being honest I've pretty much not concerned myself with Burnley all season despite them being so close in the race but that could be to their advantage while us and Leeds are jostling for first. I somewhat get the feeling as soon as one of these teams slips up in a game that will pave the way for the other two. Just a gut feeling of course.

I dont think it's going to be dull that's for sure. That's if we end up getting coverage of this 3 way PL promotion race as were forever being told we're in the shadows of the just about mid table lot over the other side of town. Who cares about us when they've got a play off spot to ... Almost get.
 
UddersBlade said:
Bet we don’t. I think we’ll need a draw to stay ahead of Burnley or Leeds.
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One thing's for sure, I don't think this team's capable of playing for a draw. Need to be going into that game with the mindset of beating them and consigning them to the playoffs
 
Lord Eddard Muir said:
One thing's for sure, I don't think this team's capable of playing for a draw. Need to be going into that game with the mindset of beating them and consigning them to the playoffs
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One could argue that is "playing for a draw" looks extremely like us "playing for a win". Eve just had that extra bit of quality that has allowed us to win games 1-0.
 
Champagneblade said:
A lot is made of Burnley’s defensive record and the fact they’ve only lost twice.

Football is about entertainment and winning, though Parker could legitimately argue it’s about accumulating points.

They have lost 4 fewer losses than us. Bravo. But we’ve also won 4 more than them.

I’d much rather our mentality to be honest. Ok, we might occasionally come unstuck but I do like my teams to go for it.

Most wins in a season is 31, Reading in 05/06.

So get 5 more and we equal it. I’d happily see us beat it though!
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Reading were annoyingly good that season thou, even with Kitson up front?
 
Replicate the reverse fixture from here on in.

If we get that, yes we’d lose to Burnley, but we’d also get to 101 points.

I could accept that!
 
Tony_Kaufman said:
We need to build on that performance against Coventry and make sure it wasn't another one off like Bristol, Oxford and Boro. We need to go up in good form with momentum as it will give the players some belief.

The first time we went up under Wilder we'd had three seasons of feeling invincible where we feared no one and approached every game with a "we will win this" mentality. Momentum and confidence set us off to a great start in the Premier League and we built on that achieving a finish beyond our wildest dreams.

Scrappy wins don't generate belief, good performances do.
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Agree. I’ve just watched the Luton away highlights, (first game after a stunning performance against Middlesbrough). Even though we scrapped a 0-1 win Luton dominated us and the game. Can’t afford to keep doing that or we’ll have another Hull result.
 

Berkshire Blade said:
Would be the biggest EFL game on free to air TV for a long time! Probably that pigs v Palace relegation head to head. No wonder it's the first game itv are putting on itv1
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Its on ITV? I'm still scarred by us being on IT against Burnley 30 years ago (I think we lost 4-2 - Jamie Hoyland scored for them, I think Kevin Gage got one for us)
 
Selly said:
Its on ITV? I'm still scarred by us being on IT against Burnley 30 years ago (I think we lost 4-2 - Jamie Hoyland scored for them, I think Kevin Gage got one for us)
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the Coventry game was on itv 4 but the Burnley one is itv1
 
Are Leeds fatigued?

The Blades ramble this weekend asked the question whether Farke's lack of rotation meant that Leeds were starting to tire. Thought I'd look at the numbers

Firstly - what do the 11 players who have played the most minutes tell us for each of the three teams

Blades - Total 26,775 - Avg 2,434 - 2 players have played 80%+ of minutes
Leeds - Total 30,017 - Avg 2,729 - 4 players have played 80%+ of minutes
Burnley - Total 30,027 - Avg 2,730 - 7 players have played 80%+ of minutes

So, on average our players with the most minutes have played 300 minutes fewer than either of our promotion rivals - that's 3 whole games

Secondly - what do the 11 players who started this weekend look like

Blades - Total 21,105 - Avg 1,918 - 2 players have played 80%+ of minutes
Leeds - Total 28,155 - Avg 2,560 - 4 players have played 80%+ of minutes
Burnley - Total 28,749 - Avg 2,613 - 7 players have played 80%+ of minutes

So, on average our starting 11 this weekend played 6-700 minutes fewer than either of our promotion rivals - that's 6/7 whole games.

And as everyone likes a graph - here is one showing total minutes played of those players who have played more than 50% of available mins

1743496522112.webp
 
Selly said:
Are Leeds fatigued?

The Blades ramble this weekend asked the question whether Farke's lack of rotation meant that Leeds were starting to tire. Thought I'd look at the numbers

Firstly - what do the 11 players who have played the most minutes tell us for each of the three teams

Blades - Total 26,775 - Avg 2,434 - 2 players have played 80%+ of minutes
Leeds - Total 30,017 - Avg 2,729 - 4 players have played 80%+ of minutes
Burnley - Total 30,027 - Avg 2,730 - 7 players have played 80%+ of minutes

So, on average our players with the most minutes have played 300 minutes fewer than either of our promotion rivals - that's 3 whole games

Secondly - what do the 11 players who started this weekend look like

Blades - Total 21,105 - Avg 1,918 - 2 players have played 80%+ of minutes
Leeds - Total 28,155 - Avg 2,560 - 4 players have played 80%+ of minutes
Burnley - Total 28,749 - Avg 2,613 - 7 players have played 80%+ of minutes

So, on average our starting 11 this weekend played 6-700 minutes fewer than either of our promotion rivals - that's 6/7 whole games.

And as everyone likes a graph - here is one showing total minutes played of those players who have played more than 50% of available mins

View attachment 207766
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The flip side to the argument is that perhaps Leeds and Burnley's players are better conditioned and fitter than ours.

Over the the last two seasons all of a sudden we have a squad of players who can't seem to manage to make it past 70 minutes. I don't think it's because the game has changed and we're up against faster and quicker players, as the faster and quicker players often play the whole 90 against us.

Something is not right at Shirecliffe and hasn't been for a while, hence all the long term injuries we've suffered, though they coincidentally started drying up after Hecky left, which he has a historical MO for. Perhaps Hecky may indeed have been the route cause as Preston currently have 9 players out injured.
 
Tony_Kaufman said:
The flip side to the argument is that perhaps Leeds and Burnley's players are better conditioned and fitter than ours.
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Its possible - which is why I steered away from any commentary on why the disparity might be there. There are multiple reasons, including:
  • Injuries
  • Suspensions (Anel, Gus especially)
  • The fact we strengthened in January (Leeds did not)
  • General fitness and conditioning
  • A concerted attempt by Wilder and/or Farke to manage their resources in the way they see fit.
I have thought for some time that Wilder might have been managing minutes to allow us to be fresher at the business end of the season. Man C (prior to this year) have done this very well (i.e. the title race looks close in Dec, and then Man C steamroller the league for the remaining months).

If that management allows us to play the last 7 games with the intensity that we showed on Friday - we'll be ok.
 
Trigger Blade said:
Meslier has played more minutes than anyone! That’s Leeds problem right there.

Ilian in!
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It's funny really. I can remember Phil Jagielka going three and a half seasons without missing a game through injury. There was the occasional suspension but he rarely got subbed. He never looked tired and was always one of our busiest players.
 
Selly said:
Its on ITV? I'm still scarred by us being on IT against Burnley 30 years ago (I think we lost 4-2 - Jamie Hoyland scored for them, I think Kevin Gage got one for us)
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It's good to revisit your trauma sometimes 😄
 

Normally a player comes into a team like this with a free pass, but Farke has taken the decision so late, having lost the advantage, that it now places Darlow under just as much pressure as Meslier was under.

He can't afford to make any mistakes.
 
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