ucandomagic
Well-Known Member
An open game with a lot of young players on the field for both teams. Baldock’s strength added solidity, Doyle, McAtee and Jebbo added youth and energy. We went behind to some woeful coverage, largely by Berge. We got equal through lovely footwork and cool finishing from McAtee, and we won the game with an untouched free kick from Doyle - going straight in at the back post with Berge and Egan offside and Berge trying desperately to play the ball! (Black Cats do bring us luck!)
However, the effect of the game on the season is more important than the details of the game itself.
Graph 1 is the multiple comparison graph with our best recent Championship seasons. Graph 1 shows that after 37 games, on 70 points we are just 1 point behind our 71 points in Wilder’s promotion season in 18/19. This is really starting to feel like a repeat of the battle for 2nd place in 18/19, with Boro taking the place of Leeds.
Graph 1:
Graph 2 compares where we are to the benchmark results that I assumed before the start of the season, for each particular game, to achieve an automatic promotion or a playoff season. You can see from Graph 2 that on 70 points we are now just 1 point behind my Autos Certain line. This line is for 90 points and almost certain automatics – but on a few points below this line we would still have a very high probability of getting automatics this season. I’ve suggested in my run-in table below that 87 points should do it – but in fact we could need as few as 83.
Graph 2:
Next, the League Table, and back to a 6 point gap over Boro in third place. All 24 teams have played 37 games, so the overall situation is very clear. 9 to go and a 6-point gap – let’s just win the next 6 and have a 2-week piss-up like 4 years ago!
League Table
Finally, my Run-In Table and Gap to Boro charts. Those of you who have read my earlier threads will recall that I assume an absolute maximum credible 2.5 points per game (ppg) in the run-in for our nearest rivals, and then calculate what we would need to do to beat the best of them. The Run-In Table below shows that Teesside Town now have a projected credible maximum of 86.5. So, our target to beat that is now 17 points from 9 games at a ppg of 1.9.
Run-In Table
I’ll keep putting the updated target ppg in the thread title after each matchday.
Mind The (Boro) Gap
I think plotting gaps against same number of matches played is visually much more educational than plotting against dates. when teams have often played different numbers of games. For instance, plotted this way, it shows that this is the first result that has increased our gap over Boro since the Game 28 points difference between both teams.
Time to relax at the weekend – with a trip to Wembley for the winners. I could really enjoy another hot sunny session in the Green Man gardens drinking Doom Bar at extortionate prices!
UTB & Slava Ukraini
However, the effect of the game on the season is more important than the details of the game itself.
Graph 1 is the multiple comparison graph with our best recent Championship seasons. Graph 1 shows that after 37 games, on 70 points we are just 1 point behind our 71 points in Wilder’s promotion season in 18/19. This is really starting to feel like a repeat of the battle for 2nd place in 18/19, with Boro taking the place of Leeds.
Graph 1:
Graph 2 compares where we are to the benchmark results that I assumed before the start of the season, for each particular game, to achieve an automatic promotion or a playoff season. You can see from Graph 2 that on 70 points we are now just 1 point behind my Autos Certain line. This line is for 90 points and almost certain automatics – but on a few points below this line we would still have a very high probability of getting automatics this season. I’ve suggested in my run-in table below that 87 points should do it – but in fact we could need as few as 83.
Graph 2:
Next, the League Table, and back to a 6 point gap over Boro in third place. All 24 teams have played 37 games, so the overall situation is very clear. 9 to go and a 6-point gap – let’s just win the next 6 and have a 2-week piss-up like 4 years ago!
League Table
Finally, my Run-In Table and Gap to Boro charts. Those of you who have read my earlier threads will recall that I assume an absolute maximum credible 2.5 points per game (ppg) in the run-in for our nearest rivals, and then calculate what we would need to do to beat the best of them. The Run-In Table below shows that Teesside Town now have a projected credible maximum of 86.5. So, our target to beat that is now 17 points from 9 games at a ppg of 1.9.
Run-In Table
I’ll keep putting the updated target ppg in the thread title after each matchday.
Mind The (Boro) Gap
I think plotting gaps against same number of matches played is visually much more educational than plotting against dates. when teams have often played different numbers of games. For instance, plotted this way, it shows that this is the first result that has increased our gap over Boro since the Game 28 points difference between both teams.
Time to relax at the weekend – with a trip to Wembley for the winners. I could really enjoy another hot sunny session in the Green Man gardens drinking Doom Bar at extortionate prices!
UTB & Slava Ukraini
