Matchday 34 Graphs – A Right Royal Result – Target PPG Now 1.91

[ucandomagic]

Not much to say about the game – other than thanks for the points Oli McB – a warrior’s performance from start to finish, and a brilliant hard-running assist for the goal - my motm again. Disappointed that Doyle didn't get on - but at least he'll be full-on for the Luton game.

Once again "the show is back on the road", so how does everything look in overall context?:-

Graph 1 is the multiple comparison graph with our best recent Championship seasons. Graph 1 shows that after 35 games, on 67 points we are 7 points behind Warnock’s excellent 05/06 season – which had 74 points after 35 games. We are still ahead, by 2 points, of our 65 points in Wilder’s promotion season in 18/19. So this is still our best Championship season for a very long time.

Graph 1:




Graph 2 compares where we are to my start-of-season benchmark results for each game to achieve an automatic promotion or a playoff season. You can see from Graph 2 that on 67 points we are now bang on top of my Autos Certain line. This line is for almost certain automatics – and on a few points below this line we would still have a very high probability of getting automatics this season. It's amazing how close we have run all season to this autos target line, that I set before the start of the season.

Graph 2:




Next, the League Table, and back to a 7 point gap over Boro in third place. Interesting that for the first time for ages all 24 teams have played the same number of games. 11 to go and a 7-point gap – let’s get 11 more wins for 100 points again!

League Table



Finally, my new Run-In Table. Those of you who have read my earlier threads will recall that I assume an absolute maximum credible 2.5 points per game (ppg) in the run-in for our nearest rivals, and then calculate what we would need to do to match the best of them.

The Run-In Table below shows that Teesside Town have an absolutely maximum credible total of 87.5. So, our target to beat that is now 21 points from 11 games at a ppg of 1.91. In reality, I think that 83 points could well be enough - a ppg of1.45.

Run-In Table


I’ll keep putting the updated target ppg in the thread title after each matchday.

So, still our best Championship season for nearly 20 years – better than the 18/19 promotion season and...
...100 points is still on!!

UTB & Slava Ukraini

 

[ThirdGenBlade]

Great to feel positive again looking at the graphs and tables so soon after the bad weekend - sometimes Saturday-Tuesday is the best thing to happen.

Love the way we are sitting right on your autos line - if we end spot on the 90 points on that line you get to win a coconut!

A couple of controversial thoughts came into my mind watching tonight - Egan and Norwood are holding our team back. We look much better with Anel and Doyle. Pace is everything, and fast counters that we are too slow to react to will kill us next year if not this. Egan will keep getting booked & sent off, grabbing forwards running by him.

A lot of people say when Norwood plays well the team plays well - but I think it’s the other way round. When the team is playing well it takes the pressure off Norwood and gives him space and time to look good. In those hard, tight games that matter, like today, he is a real liability - caught on the ball and unable to run with any runners in counters.

Anyway - thanks again for the factual groundwork on which to rest all our vague opinions!

 

[Alex Cheeseright]

Great to feel positive again looking at the graphs and tables so soon after the bad weekend - sometimes Saturday-Tuesday is the best thing to happen.

Love the way we are sitting right on your autos line - if we end spot on the 90 points on that line you get to win a coconut!

A couple of controversial thoughts came into my mind watching tonight - Egan and Norwood are holding our team back. We look much better with Anel and Doyle. Pace is everything, and fast counters that we are too slow to react to will kill us next year if not this. Egan will keep getting booked & sent off, grabbing forwards running by him.

A lot of people say when Norwood plays well the team plays well - but I think it’s the other way round. When the team is playing well it takes the pressure off Norwood and gives him space and time to look good. In those hard, tight games that matter, like today, he is a real liability - caught on the ball and unable to run with any runners in counters.

Anyway - thanks again for the factual groundwork on which to rest all our vague opinions!

100% accurate observation

 

[HVR]

No pressure - I love your graphics - if you like to do them, can I suggest another one!
Using the horizontal base as Middlesbrough's running total, it would be nice to see our points gap plotted on the vertical. To see the line getting closer to the baseline as they close the gap - and how it's back to 7 points.
I think a lot will be surprised at how they are burning through games, but not really reducing the gap as quickly as a few might think.

 

[Revolution]

No pressure - I love your graphics - if you like to do them, can I suggest another one!
Using the horizontal base as Middlesbrough's running total, it would be nice to see our points gap plotted on the vertical. To see the line getting closer to the baseline as they close the gap - and how it's back to 7 points.
I think a lot will be surprised at how they are burning through games, but not really reducing the gap as quickly as a few might think.

We have used our game in hand to do it, but the gap is exactly the same as after we lost to Boro, since which they have W2 L1 and we have W2 L2, As you say, back to 7 points.

Boro have Pointless Possession Swansea on Saturday, who are in awful form. At least Swansea are at home.

 

[HVR]

We have used our game in hand to do it, but the gap is exactly the same as after we lost to Boro, since which they have W2 L1 and we have W2 L2, As you say, back to 7 points.

Boro have Pointless Possession Swansea on Saturday, who are in awful form. At least Swansea are at home.

What's the maximum we've had over 3rd spot? Is it 13, about 7 games ago, so we've lost 6 points in that time.

 

[Blade56]

Not much to say about the game – other than thanks for the points Oli McB – a warrior’s performance from start to finish, and a brilliant hard-running assist for the goal - my motm again. Disappointed that Doyle didn't get on - but at least he'll be full-on for the Luton game.

Once again "the show is back on the road", so how does everything look in overall context?:-

Graph 1 is the multiple comparison graph with our best recent Championship seasons. Graph 1 shows that after 35 games, on 67 points we are 7 points behind Warnock’s excellent 05/06 season – which had 74 points after 35 games. We are still ahead, by 2 points, of our 65 points in Wilder’s promotion season in 18/19. So this is still our best Championship season for a very long time.

Graph 1:
View attachment 155302



Graph 2 compares where we are to my start-of-season benchmark results for each game to achieve an automatic promotion or a playoff season. You can see from Graph 2 that on 67 points we are now bang on top of my Autos Certain line. This line is for almost certain automatics – and on a few points below this line we would still have a very high probability of getting automatics this season. It's amazing how close we have run all season to this autos target line, that I set before the start of the season.

Graph 2:
View attachment 155303



Next, the League Table, and back to a 7 point gap over Boro in third place. Interesting that for the first time for ages all 24 teams have played the same number of games. 11 to go and a 7-point gap – let’s get 11 more wins for 100 points again!

League Table
View attachment 155304


Finally, my new Run-In Table. Those of you who have read my earlier threads will recall that I assume an absolute maximum credible 2.5 points per game (ppg) in the run-in for our nearest rivals, and then calculate what we would need to do to match the best of them.

The Run-In Table below shows that Teesside Town have an absolutely maximum credible total of 87.5. So, our target to beat that is now 21 points from 11 games at a ppg of 1.91. In reality, I think that 83 points could well be enough - a ppg of1.45.

Run-In Table
View attachment 155306

I’ll keep putting the updated target ppg in the thread title after each matchday.

So, still our best Championship season for nearly 20 years – better than the 18/19 promotion season and...
...100 points is still on!!

UTB & Slava Ukraini

You know what would be nice is a ppg tracker in the run in table.

 

[CPB]

What's the maximum we've had over 3rd spot? Is it 13, about 7 games ago, so we've lost 6 points in that time.

But we gained that gap quickly after the restart. We were 2 PTS clear of 3rd in November. And 11 clear of Boro.
However Boro were matching our winning form fairly quietely.

After round 28 we got 13 clear of 3rd and 14 clear of Boro. So we gained 3 points on them but it was the rest of the teams below dropping points more than Boro that made the gap better looking.

We are now 7 clear of Boro in 3rd.
So they have clawed 7 points on us overall.

Crucially when you play each other it becomes the 6 pointer affair and that's what it was.

7 points isn't a bad gap. But it can quickly evaporate. But we need to focus on us.

Another 2 touch matches but chances to pick up wins.

 

[HVR]

But we gained that gap quickly after the restart. We were 2 PTS clear of 3rd in November. And 11 clear of Boro.
However Boro were matching our winning form fairly quietely.

After round 28 we got 13 clear of 3rd and 14 clear of Boro. So we gained 3 points on them but it was the rest of the teams below dropping points more than Boro that made the gap better looking.

We are now 7 clear of Boro in 3rd.
So they have clawed 7 points on us overall.

Crucially when you play each other it becomes the 6 pointer affair and that's what it was.

7 points isn't a bad gap. But it can quickly evaporate. But we need to focus on us.

Another 2 touch matches but chances to pick up wins.

Yes, of course, that's a good point that it wasn't always Middlesbrough in 3rd, so they've narrowed the gap even further during their great form

 

[blade67]

A couple of other data sets to ponder. The last 10 games form would see Boro catch us by game 45.

If Boro carry on as they are, we need to improve our form.

 

[Berkshire Blade]

I think we need to win 7 of the 11 and even that might be close for comfort

 

[blade67]

Looking at remaining fixtures, we now have the easiest run in (Based purely on average position of the teams we have to play). Of course there is a reasonable theory that in this league, it doesn't really make much difference. That it's all about showing up yourselves, and it's a fair point

 

[mattbianco1]

A couple of controversial thoughts came into my mind watching tonight - Egan and Norwood are holding our team back. We look much better with Anel and Doyle. Pace is everything, and fast counters that we are too slow to react to will kill us next year if not this. Egan will keep getting booked & sent off, grabbing forwards running by him

Pace is the thing we lack the most. We lost due to it in Saturday and could've been caught out a couple of times by it last night up against a better team.
We will get caught out a LOT in the PL by it, as we did vs. Middlesbrough.

Fantasy football time.... get Walker back for RCB. Put Anel in the CB position. Then get a LCB with pace and a proper athletic box-to-box midfielder. Get our scouts in Holland, Belgium and France looking for a competent version of Coulibaly.

Game wise - 4pts from Luton and Sunderland and its ON !!!!

 

[Berkshire Blade]

. get Walker back for RCB.

Not sure he would be a good influence judging by todays press.

 

[Torrix1889]

Even if we only win 6 and draw 2 of our last 11 it means Boro have to win 9 of their last 11 to even be level.

If they do that, they deserve second place...

 

[Dkc]

Pace is the thing we lack the most. We lost due to it in Saturday and could've been caught out a couple of times by it last night up against a better team.
We will get caught out a LOT in the PL by it, as we did vs. Middlesbrough.

Fantasy football time.... get Walker back for RCB. Put Anel in the CB position. Then get a LCB with pace and a proper athletic box-to-box midfielder. Get our scouts in Holland, Belgium and France looking for a competent version of Coulibaly.

Game wise - 4pts from Luton and Sunderland and its ON !!!!

Walker seemed pretty keen on a return when Lineker asked him about it before the Spurs game. But I doubt he'd step down a league at the moment. Even if he left city plenty of othe PL clubs would want him in their squad.

 

[mattbianco1]

Walker seemed pretty keen on a return when Lineker asked him about it before the Spurs game. But I doubt he'd step down a league at the moment. Even if he left city plenty of othe PL clubs would want him in their squad.

I'm suggesting it as a PL signing.

I think we need City to win the CL for him to leave though

 

[Sandygate Blade]

So nobody can do the double over us. Is this first time since 1981/82. We were unbeaten at home that season?

 

[Sheffsteel]

A couple of other data sets to ponder. The last 10 games form would see Boro catch us by game 45.

If Boro carry on as they are, we need to improve our form.
View attachment 155314

If Boro repeat their form and end up winning 16 from their last 20 games then you can't begrudge them earning promotion.

Boro have been on an amazing run.....even Man City and Arsenal struggle to keep up that level of fantastic form.
Logically you suspect Boro's fantastic run won't continue.

I'm so confident I'll donate £20 to this forum if Boro manage to win 8 of their last 10 matches.

 

[MobileBlade]

Looking at remaining fixtures, we now have the easiest run in (Based purely on average position of the teams we have to play). Of course there is a reasonable theory that in this league, it doesn't really make much difference. That it's all about showing up yourselves, and it's a fair point

View attachment 155316

I think that 5 game run after the Huddersfield game will be telling for Middlesborough. Get some results from those game and they will definitely make the play-offs (given the gaps between them and Millwall in 7th).