The Numbers Thread (Will Be Updated After Each Game)

[blade too long]

nice stats

3 defeats in 15 games form means 12 points in every 15 so should if followed through achieve promotion in 11 games, 12 max

---------- Post added at 07:54 AM ---------- Previous post was at 07:51 AM ----------

Sorry to be pedantic, but how can the lowest number of points to become Champions be only 82, wheras the lowest number of Automatic Promotion is higher at 83.

Does not compute.

points spread, some seasons theres a lot of wins , and so teams gather more points
another season theres a lot of draws , so instead of 3 points in a result only 2 are used , so totals all get dropped , so fewer points spread around, also affected by the lower clubs not getting adrift and taking more of the points off the top clubs so the top clubs final totals arent as high

 

[travellingblade]

Sorry but you've missed the point.

How can a team be Champions with 82 points but not get Automatic Promotion?

 

[Wapping Blade]

The lowest is 79 in that 2005/6 season.

 

[blade too long]

well spotted, so 79 we only need 12 points woo hoo 4 wins and we are up party time

 

[Revolution]

I've done some looking back and over the last 10 seasons the data shows:

Max number of points for Champions - 100 - Wigan 2002/3 Points per game - 2.13
Lowest - 82 - Southend 2005/6 P/G - 1.78
Average - 94.7 P/G - 2.04

Max number of points for Automatic - 92 - Southampton 2010/11 P/G - 2
Lowest - 83 - QPR 2003/4 P/G - 1.8
Average - 86.1 P/G - 1.87

Currently the table shows

Charlton P/G - 2.27 Projected total 104.5
Us - 2.03 Projected total 93.4
Pigs - 1.81 Projected total 83.6
Udders - 1.84 Projected total 84.8

I don't really know what this shows, but it seems that if we can get to 92 points then we will be very unlucky not to get automatic promotion. So the target has to be 9 wins. Yet it also seems that if the P/G are the same at the end of the season 85 would be enough!

Discuss

Perhaps a better measure of what is needed to get automatic is what points the third place team got - we need to do better than that. For example, Southampton got 92 points, but the 3rd place team (Huddersfield) got 87. Same again this time round and 8 wins out of 14 (doable imho) will see us up.

 

[Balham]

On a separate note, Charlton can now not get relegated.

 

[Darren]

On a separate note, Charlton can now not get relegated.

We can't either.

 

[grafikhaus]

Don't know if this simplifies things...

I've looked back over the last 5 seasons and worked out the average points of Champions, Third and Sixth.

As United gain points I can update the Blades red line to see how we're pushing into those critical areas.



Remember, the value of your position can go up as well as down.

 

[BusheyBlade]

Good grief, we love a good stat on here don't we

 

[grafikhaus]

I haven't been this excited about figures since my Maths A level!

 

[louthblade]

All good stuff this but just keep winning

 

[BusheyBlade]

All joking aside though, excellent work. The one thing this does show is quite how much this is in our own hands. With no one really picking up any huge momentum below us at the moment, we need a severe dip in form* to not go up automatically.

* = please note that the pessimist (ie Blade) in me wanted to write "the usual dip in form and eventual f*** up".

 

[PeterNdlovu081]

On a separate note, Charlton can now not get relegated.

We can't either.

None of the top five can.

 

[Bladesman]

All good stuff this but just keep winning

True never mind the stats just win the damn games left.

Another 12 to 15 points should probably cement second place at a guess.

 

[blade too long]

Y

Another 12 to 15 points should probably cement second place at a guess.

No,need a bit more,looked it up and the highest ever 3rd place final total is 88,to guarentee 2nd unless threes a new record,we need 24 points out of 42 left to play for 1 in 2 left will suffice.but winning more won't hurt

 

[grafikhaus]

'fraid we've 'flatlined' yesterday.



There is a very narrow gap between 2nd & 3rd (2.4 pts. over the last 5 years)...

 

[dannycorker]

Update after the yesterday. The morning after I'm not feeling so negative, Maguire suspension will only be one game thankfully and everything that could have gone wrong in a football game did yesterday. Onwards and upwards!

Charlton - Top 2 Magic Number: 22 = 1.83 PPG
- Top 2 Projected Number: 7 = 0.55 PPG
- Champions Magic Number: 27 = 2.25 PPG

Sheff Utd - Top 2 Magic Number: 35 = 2.69 PPG
- Top 2 Projected Number: 20 = 1.51 PPG

Huddersfield - Top 2 Magic Number: 45 = 3.46 PPG
- Top 2 Projected Number: 32 = 2.43 PPG

MK Dons - Top 2 Magic Number: 46 = 3.54 PPG
- Top 2 Projected Number: 33 = 2.51 PPG

Stevenage - Top 2 Magic Number: 55 = 3.93 PPG
- Top 2 Projected Number: 42 = 2.97 PPG

Sheff Wed - Top 2 Magic Number: 44 = 3.67 PPG
- Top 2 Projected Number: 31 = 2.55 PPG

Max Possible Points

Charlton - 114
Sheff Utd - 104
Huddersfield - 99
MK Dons - 98
Wednesday - 97
Stevenage - 92

Projected Points

Charlton - 106
Sheff Utd - 91
Huddersfield - 84
Wednesday - 83
MK Dons - 82
Stevenage - 72

 

[Silent Blade]

Update after the yesterday. The morning after I'm not feeling so negative, Maguire suspension will only be one game thankfully and everything that could have gone wrong in a football game did yesterday. Onwards and upwards!

Charlton - Top 2 Magic Number: 22 = 1.83 PPG
- Top 2 Projected Number: 7 = 0.55 PPG
- Champions Magic Number: 27 = 2.25 PPG

Sheff Utd - Top 2 Magic Number: 35 = 2.69 PPG
- Top 2 Projected Number: 20 = 1.51 PPG

Huddersfield - Top 2 Magic Number: 45 = 3.46 PPG
- Top 2 Projected Number: 32 = 2.43 PPG

MK Dons - Top 2 Magic Number: 46 = 3.54 PPG
- Top 2 Projected Number: 33 = 2.51 PPG

Stevenage - Top 2 Magic Number: 55 = 3.93 PPG
- Top 2 Projected Number: 42 = 2.97 PPG

Sheff Wed - Top 2 Magic Number: 44 = 3.67 PPG
- Top 2 Projected Number: 31 = 2.55 PPG

Max Possible Points

Charlton - 114
Sheff Utd - 104
Huddersfield - 99
MK Dons - 98
Wednesday - 97
Stevenage - 92

Projected Points

Charlton - 106
Sheff Utd - 91
Huddersfield - 84
Wednesday - 83
MK Dons - 82
Stevenage - 72

Using a different method, if each team win their remaining home games and draw their away games, it would look like this

Blades (5 homes, 8 aways) 88 points
Wendy (7 homes, 6 aways) 88 points
Huddersfield (6 homes, 7 aways) 85 points
MK Dons (8 homes, 5 aways) 88 points

Looks close!

if we draw at MK Dons then MK Dons will have 86 points

 

[Longtimesupporter]

Wendy only have 5 away games left. Cheer up.

 

[cooperblade]

Sporting Index have the points spreads as follows:

Charlton 99 -100.5
SUFC 87.5 - 89
MK Dons 82 - 83.5
Huddersfield 81.5 - 83
weds 80 - 81.5

 

[Darren]

Sporting Index have the points spreads as follows:

Charlton 99 -100.5
SUFC 87.5 - 89
MK Dons 82 - 83.5
Huddersfield 81.5 - 83
weds 80 - 81.5

Could you translate as to what that means for us non-gambling types.

 

[Balham]

The remaining games are all pretty even in terms of opposition strength; with the exception of MK Dons, who have yet to visit three of the bottom four and relegation threatened Scunthorpe and Preston.

Anything below 12.5 suggests harder fixtures, anything above easier but this doesn't take into account form etc.

1 Charlton
Home games left: 7
Average league pos of home opp: 15
Away games left: 5
Average position of away opp: 11

2 Sheff U
Home games left: 5
Average league pos of home opp: 15
Away games left: 8
Average position of away opp: 13

3 Sheff W
Home games left: 7
Average league pos of home opp: 15
Away games left: 5
Average position of away opp: 10

4 Huddersfield
Home games left: 6
Average league pos of home opp: 12
Away games left: 7
Average position of away opp: 15

5 MK Dons 8 14 5 21
Home games left: 8
Average league pos of home opp: 14
Away games left: 5
Average position of away opp: 21

6 Notts C 6 10 6 15
Home games left: 6
Average league pos of home opp: 10
Away games left: 6
Average position of away opp: 15

7 Stevenage
Home games left: 9
Average league pos of home opp: 14
Away games left: 5
Average position of away opp: 14

8 Carlisle
Home games left: 7
Average league pos of home opp: 13
Away games left: 8
Average position of away opp: 11

 

[judge]

I need more numbers NUMBERS GOD DAAMMIT

 

[cooperblade]

Could you translate as to what that means for us non-gambling types.

In the most simple terms, they believe each team will achieve a number of points exactly in the middle of that range.

So, Charlton 99.75, SUFC 88.25 etc. (obviously at a whole number rather than a decimal)

You can choose to sell (go lower) at the smaller number if you think a team will under-perform or buy (go higher) at the bigger number.

 

[dannycorker]

Update after last night.

Charlton - Top 2 Magic Number: 22 = 2.00 PPG
- Top 2 Projected Number: 8 = 0.75 PPG
- Champions Magic Number: 24 = 2.18 PPG

Sheff Utd - Top 2 Magic Number: 35 = 2.92 PPG
- Top 2 Projected Number: 21 = 1.77 PPG

Huddersfield - Top 2 Magic Number: 39 = 3.25 PPG
- Top 2 Projected Number: 26 = 2.16 PPG

MK Dons - Top 2 Magic Number: 43 = 3.58 PPG
- Top 2 Projected Number: 30 = 2.50 PPG

Stevenage - Top 2 Magic Number: 52 = 3.71 PPG
- Top 2 Projected Number: 39 = 2.78 PPG

Sheff Wed - Top 2 Magic Number: 38 = 3.45 PPG
- Top 2 Projected Number: 25 = 2.27 PPG

Max Possible Points

Charlton - 111
Sheff Utd - 101
Huddersfield - 99
Wednesday - 97
MK Dons - 95
Stevenage - 92

Projected Points

Charlton - 103
Sheff Utd - 88
Huddersfield - 85
Wednesday - 84
MK Dons - 80
Stevenage - 72

 

[Selly]

In the most simple terms, they believe each team will achieve a number of points exactly in the middle of that range.

So, Charlton 99.75, SUFC 88.25 etc. (obviously at a whole number rather than a decimal)

You can choose to sell (go lower) at the smaller number if you think a team will under-perform or buy (go higher) at the bigger number.

So taking our spread

SUFC 87.5 - 89

which will no doubt have changed after last night, but will work for illustrative purposes, if you sell SUFC at 87.5, to the value of £10/point, and we finish with 80 points, you win 7.5 points x £10 = £75

If you buy SUFC at 89, to the value of £10/point, us finishing on 80 points would cost you 9 x £10 = £90.

And the opposite is true as well, if you sell SUFC at 87.5, to the value of £10/point, and we finish with 95 points, you lose 7.5 points x £10 = £75

If you buy SUFC at 89, to the value of £10/point, us finishing on 95 points would win you 6 x £10 = £60.

Basically if you think we will get more than 89 points, you should buy, if you think we will get less than 87.5, you should sell.

 

[cooperblade]

So taking our spread

SUFC 87.5 - 89

which will no doubt have changed after last night, but will work for illustrative purposes, if you sell SUFC at 87.5, to the value of £10/point, and we finish with 80 points, you win 7.5 points x £10 = £75

If you buy SUFC at 89, to the value of £10/point, us finishing on 80 points would cost you 9 x £10 = £90.

And the opposite is true as well, if you sell SUFC at 87.5, to the value of £10/point, and we finish with 95 points, you lose 7.5 points x £10 = £75

If you buy SUFC at 89, to the value of £10/point, us finishing on 95 points would win you 6 x £10 = £60.

Basically if you think we will get more than 89 points, you should buy, if you think we will get less than 87.5, you should sell.

Spot on.

Updated spreads

Charlton Points 78/35 97 - 98.5
Sheffield United Points 65/34 86 - 87.5
Huddersfield Town Points 63/34 82.5 - 84
Sheffield Wednesday Points 64/35 81 - 82.5
MK Dons Points 59/34 80 - 81.5

 

[Selly]

Spot on.

Updated spreads

Charlton Points 78/35 97 - 98.5
Sheffield United Points 65/34 86 - 87.5
Huddersfield Town Points 63/34 82.5 - 84
Sheffield Wednesday Points 64/35 81 - 82.5
MK Dons Points 59/34 80 - 81.5

Tempted to sell as an insurance policy...

...sell at a £1, max possible loss £13.50...

 

[Silent Blade]

Using my method of 3 points for each remaining home games and a point for each remaining away games, here is the update

Blades (5 homes, 7 aways) 87 points
Wendy (6 homes, 5 aways) 87 points
Huddersfield (5 homes, 7 aways) 85 points
Mk Dons (7 homes, 5 aways) 85 points

 

[Silent Blade]

Using my method of 3 points for each remaining home games and a point for each remaining away games, here is the update

Blades (5 homes, 6 aways) 89 points
Wendy (5 homes, 5 aways) 87 points
Huddersfield (4 homes, 7 aways) 83 points
Mk Dons (6 homes, 5 aways) 85 points

If we lose at MK Dons then we have 88 points