Coronavirus - a real season spoiling threat?

[BornOnShorehamStreet]

A friend of mine I went to school with emigrated to Italy thirty years ago. He works as a doctor at a hospital in Bozen, South Tirol. They are currently experiencing the start of the more serious wave of cases, but are nothing as bad yet as in, say, Milano.

He says it is like nothing he has ever known because doctors that have never really seen themselves as making large-scale decisions about life or death on an industrial scale are increasingly placed in a position to just do that. The mild cases are just that, mild. Then there are cases that a person will clearly survive with certain discomfort, if only they are given the beds or the respirators. And then there are tons of people who need more service than can be offered to all. So you are having to chance it with several patients each day, knowing your decision who gets machinery for how long will have severe consequences for the ones without access. Death being one of those potential consequences.

That does not yet touch on the ethics of quarantining healthy people who carry the virus on the staff if civilization in the hospital is stretched or breaking down. He says that there are now areas of Italy where doctors who carry it or have mild symptoms still work in order to stem the ballooning figures. It IS a horrible situation, the like of which he has not experienced before, having been born in the late sixties.

Now the Italians may have been tardy or unprepared. Unlike other countries they also probably never knew patient 1, let alone patient 1 to 100. So they could not contain it early or trace it once it raised its head.

But he is awaiting his own test result today as a colleague tested positive. So his advice was to take it seriously early on as the hard cases of the ones who do not make it are nasty deaths. They are in pain breathing, with their lungs filling up with slime that you need to get out with machinery or you literally die of not having enough oxygen in your body.

In his words, it is not as much the disease itself as the flood of same symptoms of something normally relatively rare or contained that strangles the life out of the staff and the system.

While the numbers are still low, personally, I would limit my non-vital fun. I probably would currently forfeit the movies. I walk or cycle to work even on grey and horrible days, rather than public transport. But the stuff that makes my life happy and is needed to compensate for the pain of existing - notably, taking the kids to their various fun activities and sports, the odd concerts I have tickets for and the Blades matches - I will only stop engaging in if I either have first hand experience of the kind of squeeze my friend describes or the state takes the decision out of my hand.

This is very interesting, thank you. I have just one query. What's this machine that can remove slime (I presume you mean the natural mucus we all have that multiplies when infected) from lungs.
If the machine you are referring to is a ventilator,it doesn't remove mucus. I have had a chronic lung condition since 1957 and I don't know of any machine that removes mucus from lungs. I'd be very interested if there is such a machine

 

[Linz]

The direct result of kids being told that they can do anything they dream of doing, and never being allowed to lose at anything because it’s not in line with equality, is the current crop of know-nowt armchair experts telling us that it’s no worse than a cold and that we should all be allowed to do whatever we think is best.

Similar to the justification of some in not vaccinating their kids - "Everyone else can vaccinate theirs so mine will be safe and I don't need to do so".

Self-centred, I'm alright Jack thinking with no concept of society.

 

[Tarqs]

Football without fans isn't football anymore. Suspend the league and resume it at a more appropriate time (the euros are going to get canned anyway).

 

[Ball_Sup (Phil)]

It isn't CoronaVirus that will kill you, it's the Whataboutery.....

 

[Cheesebored]

What this has shown to me is a complete polarisation of views, not unlike Brexit, where people seem unable to show empathy or understanding for opposing ideas or thoughts on the subject. Stats are lies, the government's lying, nanny state, can I get my ST money back, the old and infirm dying is a price worth paying, all points raised at some point in this thread. I'm definitely no expert but as annoyed I am that the season as an attending fan might be over, I see no reason to doubt the advice being given and risk spreading the virus unintentionally to someone that could die from it. It's a small price to pay.

 

[blade too long]

Italy is the worst hit place in Europe and yes they are doing all these things. As will we when it gets worse.

all that does is ruin the economy, theres no proof it will stop the virus
they hope it will ,
but why didnt they do this with Sars , no one is giving an explanation

 

[Berkshire Blade]

all that does is ruin the economy, theres no proof it will stop the virus
they hope it will ,
but why didnt they do this with Sars , no one is giving an explanation

Sars didn't have the numbers this does.

China has seen cases level off because of the restrictions. Why are you struggling with this?!

 

[blade too long]

You 're an ignorant plonker mate . China took proper measures and their cases are levelling off now . Do we want to repeat what happened in china where the health system got overwhelmed to start with or shall we go straight to the measures to slow this thing down so for people who do get it there 's a place available in hospital for them

they are levelling off because like all such viruses they run their course
the panic with this strain is unprecedented
we get these viruses nearly bi annually now
no one is saying why this one which isnt killing that many is so different

COVID-19 Fatality Rate by AGE:
*Death Rate = (number of deaths / number of cases) = probability of dying if infected by the virus (%). This probability differs depending on the age group. The percentages shown below do not have to add up to 100%, as they do NOT represent share of deaths by age group. Rather, it represents, for a person in a given age group, the risk of dying if infected with COVID-19.

AGE​	DEATH RATE confirmed cases	DEATH RATE all cases
80+ years old​	21.9%​	14.8%​
70-79 years old​	​	8.0%​
60-69 years old​	​	3.6%​
50-59 years old​	​	1.3%​
40-49 years old​	​	0.4%​
30-39 years old​	​	0.2%​
20-29 years old​	​	0.2%​
10-19 years old​	​	0.2%​
0-9 years old	​	no fatalities​

*Death Rate = (number of deaths / number of cases) = probability of dying if infected by the virus (%). The percentages do not have to add up to 100%, as they do NOT represent share of deaths by age group.

In general, relatively few cases are seen among children.
a LOT OF REALLY ELDERLY ARE VULNERABLE SO LETS FOCUS ON SAVING THEM WOULD SEEM SENSIBLE

IGNORANT PLONKER WHO READS A LOT AND TRIES TO MAKE SENSE OF UN RESTRICTED PANIC

 

[snb69]

The direct result of kids being told that they can do anything they dream of doing, and never being allowed to lose at anything because it’s not in line with equality, is the current crop of know-nowt armchair experts telling us that it’s no worse than a cold and that we should all be allowed to do whatever we think is best.

With respect, that's bollocks. All the arm chair experts I see are the kind of perosn who nbangs on about snowflakes, and are the least likely to be espousing those theories.

Mind you, I've never seen a case of kids not being allowed to lose in real life, and fail to see the problem with letting them aim high.

What we do have is a load of people who think they know better than experts, a media that dumbs down sober risk assessments into "We're doomed", and a bunch of selfish idiots buying 3 months worth of loo roll and pasta

 

[HillmortonBlade]

Football without fans isn't football anymore. Suspend the league and resume it at a more appropriate time (the euros are going to get canned anyway).

Where does it end though? If it’s suspended for a couple of months, it starts impacting on next season.

Wish they’d just make a decision.

 

[Tarqs]

Where does it end though? If it’s suspended for a couple of months, it starts impacting on next season.

Wish they’d just make a decision.

True, but the next season hasn't even been planned for yet, this season can potentially be completed in 5 weeks, so suspend it.

 

[snb69]

all that does is ruin the economy, theres no proof it will stop the virus
they hope it will ,
but why didnt they do this with Sars , no one is giving an explanation

SARS - 8000 cases, 774 deaths, in far fewer countries. It never got to pandemic level

 

[MullFonty]

they are levelling off because like all such viruses they run their course
the panic with this strain is unprecedented
we get these viruses nearly bi annually now
no one is saying why this one which isnt killing that many is so different

COVID-19 Fatality Rate by AGE:
*Death Rate = (number of deaths / number of cases) = probability of dying if infected by the virus (%). This probability differs depending on the age group. The percentages shown below do not have to add up to 100%, as they do NOT represent share of deaths by age group. Rather, it represents, for a person in a given age group, the risk of dying if infected with COVID-19.

AGE​	DEATH RATE confirmed cases	DEATH RATE all cases
80+ years old​	21.9%​	14.8%​
70-79 years old​	​	8.0%​
60-69 years old​	​	3.6%​
50-59 years old​	​	1.3%​
40-49 years old​	​	0.4%​
30-39 years old​	​	0.2%​
20-29 years old​	​	0.2%​
10-19 years old​	​	0.2%​
0-9 years old	​	no fatalities​

*Death Rate = (number of deaths / number of cases) = probability of dying if infected by the virus (%). The percentages do not have to add up to 100%, as they do NOT represent share of deaths by age group.

In general, relatively few cases are seen among children.
aLOT OF REALLY ELDERLY ARE VULNERABLE SO LETS FOCUS ON SAVING THEM WOULD SEEM SENSIBLE

IGNORANT PLONKER WHO READS A LOT AND TRIES TO MAKE SENSE OF UN RESTRICTED PANIC

Yes let 's all go to as many mass gatherings as possible against expert advice so that hospitals are loaded and the number of cases in society is at it 's most optimal to increase the chances of the elderly people catching it and dying . Do you read what you write or do you just fart it out and push it in to screen

 

[blade too long]

Sars didn't have the numbers this does.

China has seen cases level off because of the restrictions. Why are you struggling with this?!

ITS RUN ITS COURSE, LIKE ALL VIRUSES DO
its great news its under control through very basic precautions
I am not struggling with it , it never bothered me
It will occur again with another strain before long

 

[Le Cynique]

all that does is ruin the economy, theres no proof it will stop the virus
they hope it will ,
but why didnt they do this with Sars , no one is giving an explanation

2002–2004 SARS outbreak - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

It was clearly quite different in scope and timing

 

[skyjam]

You 're an ignorant plonker mate . China took proper measures and their cases are levelling off now . Do we want to repeat what happened in china where the health system got overwhelmed to start with or shall we go straight to the measures to slow this thing down so for people who do get it there 's a place available in hospital for them

i don't trust owt China says

 

[blade too long]

SARS - 8000 cases, 774 deaths, in far fewer countries. It never got to pandemic level

if you take out the over 80s with underlying health problems its less deadly
its panic on an unprecedented scale
its a virus thats preyed on the old and weak , the numbers are up but its because of its danger to over 80 s

good read

Here’s who’s most at risk from the novel coronavirus

Flatten the curve.

www.theverge.com

 

[Oldun]

This is very interesting, thank you. I have just one query. What's this machine that can remove slime (I presume you mean the natural mucus we all have that multiplies when infected) from lungs.
If the machine you are referring to is a ventilator,it doesn't remove mucus. I have had a chronic lung condition since 1957 and I don't know of any machine that removes mucus from lungs. I'd be very interested if there is such a machine

Sounds like a cough assist device (or mechanical insufflator-exsufflator. Not suitable for everyone with a chronic lung disease but used quite extensively on intensive care.

 

[Bladesman]

 

[Le Cynique]

With respect, that's bollocks. All the arm chair experts I see are the kind of perosn who nbangs on about snowflakes, and are the least likely to be espousing those theories.

Mind you, I've never seen a case of kids not being allowed to lose in real life, and fail to see the problem with letting them aim high.

What we do have is a load of people who think they know better than experts, a media that dumbs down sober risk assessments into "We're doomed", and a bunch of selfish idiots buying 3 months worth of loo roll and pasta

With respect, I don’t think it is.
For ages we’ve told people that everyone is equal. Which is laudable in itself, but equality doesn’t or at least shouldn’t mean that everyone is exactly the same. Some kids are naturally less bright than others. It’s just how it goes. Telling them they can be a brain surgeon is wrong and dangerous.
Similarly, removing winners and losers from games (the idea of giving everyone a medal for trying) might be good in the short term to improve self-esteem and the like, but it doesn’t help long-term because people then become embedded in the mindset that they are as good as everyone else at everything.
So you end up with the inevitable situation where the person who cleans toilets for a living (and there’s nothing wrong with that) thinks their opinion on a medical issue is as valid as that as a trained doctor, because they’ve always been told they’re smart and equal to everyone else.
It’s ludicrous and dangerous and this ridiculous mindset is as responsible for as many of the societal problems we have today as any negative influence.

 

[BushBlade]

if you take out the over 80s with underlying health problems its less deadly
its panic on an unprecedented scale
its a virus thats preyed on the old and weak , the numbers are up but its because of its danger to over 80 s

good read

Here’s who’s most at risk from the novel coronavirus

Flatten the curve.

www.theverge.com

So read it then.

Most people who are young or healthy and who contract the virus don’t get severely ill. But if you have the virus, even if you don’t get that sick, you might come into contact with people who are more at risk — and pass the virus to them. That’s why it’s so important to stay home if you’re not feeling well. Minimizing the number of people each sick person infects is low-tech, but it’s the best way to slow the spread of a disease like COVID-19. It’s the goal of policies like school closures and event cancellations and why people who might have been exposed to the illness are asked to isolate themselves.

Not everyone can work from home, stop taking public transportation, or skip large gatherings, though. If you can do those things — even though they may seem silly and even if there have not been many cases identified in your area — you can help blunt the impact of the pandemic.

 

[Klaatu Barada Nikto]

The direct result of kids being told that they can do anything they dream of doing, and never being allowed to lose at anything because it’s not in line with equality, is the current crop of know-nowt armchair experts telling us that it’s no worse than a cold and that we should all be allowed to do whatever we think is best.

Is it? A lot of the ignorant comments I’m seeing are from people much older than me and i’m 40.

 

[BettingBlade]

With respect, I don’t think it is.
For ages we’ve told people that everyone is equal. Which is laudable in itself, but equality doesn’t or at least shouldn’t mean that everyone is exactly the same. Some kids are naturally less bright than others. It’s just how it goes. Telling them they can be a brain surgeon is wrong and dangerous.
Similarly, removing winners and losers from games (the idea of giving everyone a medal for trying) might be good in the short term to improve self-esteem and the like, but it doesn’t help long-term because people then become embedded in the mindset that they are as good as everyone else at everything.
So you end up with the inevitable situation where the person who cleans toilets for a living (and there’s nothing wrong with that) thinks their opinion on a medical issue is as valid as that as a trained doctor, because they’ve always been told they’re smart and equal to everyone else.
It’s ludicrous and dangerous and this ridiculous mindset is as responsible for as many of the societal problems we have today as any negative influence.

With respect it is bollocks. By that logic anyone who’s not a doctor or medically trained, their opinion isn’t as valid. Which is right in the sense that you would of course expect them to as it’s their profession.

It’s nothing to do with what you’re making it out to be. Everyone who’s a pilot, I trust them to get me somewhere safely, but I’d be able to tell if the wing was falling off that wouldn’t be a good sign.

It’s nothing to do with what you’re talking about. That’s completely irrelevant.

 

[Hamburg Blade]

You 're an ignorant plonker mate . China took proper measures and their cases are levelling off now . Do we want to repeat what happened in china where the health system got overwhelmed to start with or shall we go straight to the measures to slow this thing down so for people who do get it there 's a place available in hospital for them

China built new temporary hospitals in record time. The government could have done that too, with a head start they could probably already be up and running. Draft in first aiders or the army and give them training in caring for the less severe cases. Get the various medical supplies companies into emergency production of whatever supplies and devices are needed. Or do that across the country with smaller units, requisition buildings. Is anything like that being done? Or are they just cancelling the football? Which apparently the experts are saying isn't much of a problem in itself, just the traval to and from, which could be cancelled if that's the issue.
Football just looks like the fall guy, as ever. The government will look like they're doing something, whilst what they're doing doesn't cost them anything, doesn't affect the economy, doesn't affect the vast majority of people and the games can still be streamed.

 

[mattbianco1]

 

[S64 Blade]

The fact that stocks of soap and hand sanitiser are running short suggests that lots of scruffy buggers did need telling by experts to wash their hands.

I'd say 90% of people I see leaving the toilets at games, don't wash their hands either. So I can see why football is a prime target to be played behind closed doors!

 

[SUFC Guy]

China built new temporary hospitals in record time. The government could have done that too, with a head start they could probably already be up and running. Draft in first aiders or the army and give them training in caring for the less severe cases. Get the various medical supplies companies into emergency production of whatever supplies and devices are needed. Or do that across the country with smaller units, requisition buildings. Is anything like that being done? Or are they just cancelling the football? Which apparently the experts are saying isn't much of a problem in itself, just the traval to and from, which could be cancelled if that's the issue.
Football just looks like the fall guy, as ever. The government will look like they're doing something, whilst what they're doing doesn't cost them anything, doesn't affect the economy, doesn't affect the vast majority of people and the games can still be streamed.

School closures would free up vital space for make shift hospitals. You are correct, we wouldn't need to build but simply requisition buildings and then ship equipment in.

 

[snb69]

With respect, I don’t think it is.
For ages we’ve told people that everyone is equal. Which is laudable in itself, but equality doesn’t or at least shouldn’t mean that everyone is exactly the same. Some kids are naturally less bright than others. It’s just how it goes. Telling them they can be a brain surgeon is wrong and dangerous.
Similarly, removing winners and losers from games (the idea of giving everyone a medal for trying) might be good in the short term to improve self-esteem and the like, but it doesn’t help long-term because people then become embedded in the mindset that they are as good as everyone else at everything.
So you end up with the inevitable situation where the person who cleans toilets for a living (and there’s nothing wrong with that) thinks their opinion on a medical issue is as valid as that as a trained doctor, because they’ve always been told they’re smart and equal to everyone else.
It’s ludicrous and dangerous and this ridiculous mindset is as responsible for as many of the societal problems we have today as any negative influence.

Equality of opportunity, not equality of outcome. Do your best, because that's all anyone can ask of you. And aim high, because you might be able to be a brain surgeon, even though you come from a shitty estate and go to an under-funded state school. Not sure how that follows on to the behaviour you describe.

I see it as a direct result of the cult of the individual, the "I'm all right Jack" mentality, and the media demonisation of 'experts' that has been prevalent since the 80s. The whole "Why should I modify MY behaviour because it might put someone else at risk" thing.

Either way up, the misplaced scepticism around advice is daft, we agree. It's little things as well - I wash my hands, but I know I wasn't doing it for 20 seconds every time. I'm 50, so I have a lifetime of action to overcome to cough/sneeze into my elbow. If the official advice becomes "Don't go to football matches", I'll cope

 

[Captain2]

Yes, really. It has a 2% mortality rate. Of those 2%, 80% are already in hospital or have underlying health issues.

I for one am not worried whatsoever. Even though I have underlying health issues - epilepsy.

Epilepsy!
Not relevant!

 

[Le Cynique]

With respect it is bollocks. By that logic anyone who’s not a doctor or medically trained, their opinion isn’t as valid. Which is right in the sense that you would of course expect them to as it’s their profession.

It’s nothing to do with what you’re making it out to be. Everyone who’s a pilot, I trust them to get me somewhere safely, but I’d be able to tell if the wing was falling off that wouldn’t be a good sign.

It’s nothing to do with what you’re talking about. That’s completely irrelevant.

I can't work out what you're trying to say here.

Epidemiology is a specialist branch of science that considers many different disciplines. It's incredibly complex and the layperson simply cannot understand it to the same level and therefore their opinion about an epidemic or pandemic isn't as informed. That's just a fact.

To take your flawed analogy about the plane wing, it's more accurate to say that what people are doing is trying to tell the pilot what to do when the wing falls off, not just being able to tell that it's not a good sign.

You only have to look through some of the posts on here to see that it's absolutely about people thinking they know as much as the experts.