Punk Blade
Active Member
Nail on head. Why didn’t we think of this before? Before a ball is drawn the probability is 1/15. If a Sheffield club comes out first the probability is still 1/15. Well done.Last comment .....
If a local team is drawn first, that’s the only chance there will be of winning that bet. So the new information is that very fact. So probability is moot other than the 1/15 chance which no one is arguing about. Any other of the 14 teams drawn first also gives new information. That the derby draw is still possible as long as neither side comes out second ball. That’s because the betting is in play after the first ball.