5th round fixture

All advertisments are hidden for logged in members, why not log in/register?


Sean Thornton said:
Liverpool was an example. It could be any of the other 14 teams. :)
Click to expand...

In which case, do ‘find and replace’ for the other team names instead of “Liverpool”. The exact same point holds.

Sean Thornton said:
Anyone of the 14 being drawn out first DOES give us information we weren’t aware of before that first drawn ball. It tells us that as either Sheffield team could be drawn second the likelihood of a derby is lessened until the second ball is drawn.
Click to expand...

That is incorrect. See the previous example with numbers to see why.

If another team (say, Liverpool) is drawn first, there is a 1 in 15 chance of us being drawn second (because we are 1 of 15 teams left), against Liverpool.

Before the draw started, there was a 1 in 15 chance that we will be drawn against Liverpool. So there is no new information!
 
Salmonfarm said:
Only did up to A level maths, and I've only done the first 3 'draws' to prove the point but here is it written down. Every time the fraction becomes 1/120. Therefore, as there are 8 draws this becomes 1/15. (B is blades, p is pigs and o is other). Shows how the probabilities change after each ball is pulled.
Click to expand...
Seems perfectly clear to me. Don’t know what they’re still going on about for 14 pages.
 
Geordie Blade said:
In which case, do ‘find and replace’ for the other team names instead of “Liverpool”. The exact same point holds.



That is incorrect. See the previous example with numbers to see why.

If another team (say, Liverpool) is drawn first, there is a 1 in 15 chance of us being drawn second (because we are 1 of 15 teams left), against Liverpool.

Before the draw started, there was a 1 in 15 chance that we will be drawn against Liverpool. So there is no new information!
Click to expand...

Forget Liverpool, it could be any one of the fourteen. That’s not even in keeping with what l’m saying.

The first team draw out is new information because it wasn’t known before who it would be. Any one of the fourteen teams drawn out first affects the chances. Forget probability and look at the actuality. Look at the bet example I’ve given. In play betting on line adjusts the odds as events occur, not before the event begins. The occurrence of a non local team being drawn first has to affect the odds of a derby AT THAT POINT That’s not theory, it’s reality.

If l understand him correctly, BushBlade says basic probability is not based on changing events “in play”.

“ In-Play is betting that takes place after an event has started”

Liverpool or whoever being drawn first is in play. Therefore that or subsequent events can change the odds. That’s what happens in real life, not on a graph or spreadsheet.
 
Sean Thornton said:
Forget Liverpool, it could be any one of the fourteen. That’s not even in keeping with what l’m saying.

The first team draw out is new information because it wasn’t known before who it would be. Any one of the fourteen teams drawn out first affects the chances. Forget probability and look at the actuality. Look at the bet example I’ve given. In play betting on line adjusts the odds as events occur, not before the event begins. The occurrence of a non local team being drawn first has to affect the odds of a derby AT THAT POINT That’s not theory, it’s reality.

If l understand him correctly, BushBlade says basic probability is not based on changing events “in play”.

“ In-Play is betting that takes place after an event has started”

Liverpool or whoever being drawn first is in play. Therefore that it subsequent events can change the odds. That’s what happens in real life, not on a graph or spreadsheet.
Click to expand...

Honestly, that is wrong - whether in real life or on a spreadsheet.

Imagine that it’s the semi-finals. 4 teams: A, B, C and D. A and B would be a derby. The chance of them meeting each other, before a ball is drawn, is 1 in 3.

Now imagine that ball ‘C’ is drawn first. That leaves A, B and D in the hat. What is the probably that D will get drawn next (clue: it is 1 of 3 balls left), thus meaning the next game will be a derby?
 
JPBrodie said:
Winnable tie. Boring though. Hope it's Reading, another easy away day for us Londoners.
Click to expand...

We don't want an interesting tie in the 5th round. If we keep progressing we'll play someone like Man U or Liverpool at Wembley instead! :p
 
Geordie Blade said:
Honestly, that is wrong - whether in real life or on a spreadsheet.

Imagine that it’s the semi-finals. 4 teams: A, B, C and D. A and B would be a derby. The chance of them meeting each other, before a ball is drawn, is 1 in 3.

Now imagine that ball ‘C’ is drawn first. That leaves A, B and D in the hat. What is the probably that D will get drawn next (clue: it is 1 of 3 balls left), thus meaning the next game will be a derby?
Click to expand...
That’s because there are fewer possible permutations.
 
Geordie Blade said:
Honestly, that is wrong - whether in real life or on a spreadsheet.

Imagine that it’s the semi-finals. 4 teams: A, B, C and D. A and B would be a derby. The chance of them meeting each other, before a ball is drawn, is 1 in 3.

Now imagine that ball ‘C’ is drawn first. That leaves A, B and D in the hat. What is the probably that D will get drawn next (clue: it is 1 of 3 balls left), thus meaning the next game will be a derby?
Click to expand...

That example is meaningless for rather obvious reasons.
 
Geordie Blade said:
No there aren’t. There are still exactly three permutations.
Click to expand...
I meant there are fewer permutations than in the fifth round draw.

If Cardiff are drawn first in the fifth round draw, there is a possibility that one of the Sheffield clubs could get drawn against them. A 2 in 14 chance. If that occurred it would be impossible for there to be a Sheffield derby. So, at that specific point, the probability would change.

But after the first team was drawn, it would change anyway, from 1 in 15 to 1 in 14.

Which is my point, the calculation of probability is just for the probability before the draw starts. It’s the difference between betting on a race before it starts and betting on a race when it’s half way through.

Anyway, we didn’t get them, even though, if I’ve read this thread correctly, we were almost certain to.
 

Sean Thornton said:
I’ve only concentrated on the first tie all along. At that point any of the 14 clubs being drawn first - and for what I’ve been saying only at that point - the odds aren’t 15/1. The rest of the draw isn’t part of what I’ve been saying. Liverpool being drawn first means that at that moment in time, there can’t be a derby draw. So how can the odds not change at that point?
Click to expand...

Because as well as it not being possible for there to be a derby draw, there also can’t be any other draw permutation where Liverpool don’t come out first so that eliminates lots of other options that aren’t derby draws too

The net result is that numerator and denominator reduce by the same ratio and so the probability is unchanged.

Looking another way, as we don’t care who’s drawn home or away or the draw order, just who plays who, there’s no information in the statement “Liverpool will be drawn” as we knew that before we started.
 
help.smarkets.com

What is in-play betting?

In-play betting allows bettors and traders to place bets on an event once it has started. The nature of in-play betting allows users on a betting exchange to trade the market, taking advantage of i...
help.smarkets.com help.smarkets.com

Of odds didn’t shift during in play betting, there would be no point in it.
 
BushBlade said:
I meant there are fewer permutations than in the fifth round draw.

If Cardiff are drawn first in the fifth round draw, there is a possibility that one of the Sheffield clubs could get drawn against them. A 2 in 14 chance. If that occurred it would be impossible for there to be a Sheffield derby. So, at that specific point, the probability would change.

But after the first team was drawn, it would change anyway, from 1 in 15 to 1 in 14.

Which is my point, the calculation of probability is just for the probability before the draw starts. It’s the difference between betting on a race before it starts and betting on a race when it’s half way through.

Anyway, we didn’t get them, even though, if I’ve read this thread correctly, we were almost certain to.
Click to expand...

Your point is correct after TWO other teams have been drawn. After only one has been drawn it doesn’t hold.
 
Sean Thornton said:
help.smarkets.com

What is in-play betting?

In-play betting allows bettors and traders to place bets on an event once it has started. The nature of in-play betting allows users on a betting exchange to trade the market, taking advantage of i...
help.smarkets.com help.smarkets.com

Of odds didn’t shift during in play betting, there would be no point in it.
Click to expand...

Again, that’s true after two teams are drawn, but not one. I can see you don’t follow this, but I assure you that it’s true.

Your misunderstanding is because you’re thinking of it as a sequential thing (like horse racing, where each yard run gives more information).

In a cup draw, although we see it happening one after the other, you can imagine that the teams all get paired up at the same time (for instance eight people grab two balls each at the same time).

When only one ball has been picked, we don’t know anything about the pairings, so no new information.
 
Blade83 said:
Because as well as it not being possible for there to be a derby draw, there also can’t be any other draw permutation where Liverpool don’t come out first so that eliminates lots of other options that aren’t derby draws too

The net result is that numerator and denominator reduce by the same ratio and so the probability is unchanged.

Looking another way, as we don’t care who’s drawn home or away or the draw order, just who plays who, there’s no information in the statement “Liverpool will be drawn” as we knew that before we started.
Click to expand...

The moment anyone is drawn we are in play with new information. Liverpool is just an example. It could be anyone of 14 clubs.
 
Geordie Blade said:
Im not sure that you know what ‘principle’ means In this context.
Click to expand...

I know what reality is. I would have a bet on a derby at 15/1 after one of 14 other teams is drawn first because it’s not a 15/1 shot at that point. I’d wait until after the second ball was drawn and take 14/1.

A serious gambler looks for value in a bet. Taking 15/1 on a bet that is longer odds based on a second ball being drawn when there’s a chance of two teams scuppering that bet isn’t value.

All the probability being quoted is based pre first ball.
 
anglian blade said:
I suspect that Mr Thornton who usually appears reasonably intelligent is being deliberately obtuse .
Click to expand...

Not at all. I know little about probability but somewhat more about gambling. My points aren’t fixed theory based. Anyone wanting to take 15/1 after Liverpool are drawn and before the second ball is drawn is a bookies delight. Far better to hope neither local side is the second ball drawn and take 14/1 on the third ball.
 
I'd rather be at home and I'd rather play Reading but a good draw.

Thoughts and prayers are with Man City fans.
 

You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

Foxy
  • Sticky
Key Dates - 2025/26 Season
2
Replies
32
Views
5K
Bl4desutd
Bl4desutd
William Carey
How many points from our next set of fixtures after the international break? (18th October - 10th November)
Replies
12
Views
760
jono_t2000
jono_t2000
A
Bonus for us - Norwich game
Replies
7
Views
1K
COME BACK CHED
COME BACK CHED
F
Pitch
Replies
10
Views
2K
sufc323
sufc323
bertieblade
Sky fixture reveal
Replies
21
Views
3K
Pintor75
Pintor75

All advertisments are hidden for logged in members, why not log in/register?

All advertisments are hidden for logged in members, why not log in/register?

Back
Top Bottom