Will we send Wednesday down?

[Champagneblade]

Correct ! Pompey winning tonight confirmed that WE ONLY NEED A DRAW if it goes to Sunday.

I still think we should play for the win!

 

[staton]

Of course we go out and win as big as we possibly can. Wednesday have to come to win to avoid us relegating them. If they bring their usual damage limitation game they will look even more pathetic.

 

[Selly]

The maths are hurting my brain at this point but not sure the Blackburn loss, Leicester win and WBA no draw is correct.

Loss leaves WBA on 34 and the other two on 35. Whilst they still have to play each other, they could mathematically catch one of them.

I think you are right.

 

[Dkc]

 

[Dkc]

Note that WBA play Coventry at home

 

[Selly]

Because I apparently have nothing better to do, and because I prefer a visual medium to a wall of text, i did a flowchart outlining the scenarios. I haven`t included Oxford as what they do is irrelevant.

If I've made an error (likely) - let me know and I'll adjust and repost

 

[BalticBlade]

For anyone still confused by all the different permutations, this does a pretty good job of explaining it all...

 

[Chief]

Because I apparently have nothing better to do, and because I prefer a visual medium to a wall of text, i did a flowchart outlining the scenarios. I haven`t included Oxford as what they do is irrelevant.

If I've made an error (likely) - let me know and I'll adjust and repost

View attachment 231309

This is a level of nerd-ery I can really get behind. Beautiful.

I'll probably look at this chart once per hour between now and 5pm Saturday.

 

[raul]

On the basis it's been up half an hour and Balham hasn't waded in with his size 13's, I assume all is correct.

 

[Balham]

This is a level of nerd-ery I can really get behind. Beautiful.

I'll probably look at this chart once per hour between now and 5pm Saturday.

2.30pm...because West Brom v Coventry and Leicester v Stoke are both early kick offs.

I can't argue with any of Selly 's work. There are 12 scenarios and Wednesday are down at 2.30pm Saturday in exactly half of them.

 

[Dkc]

Surely it is as simple as this - if WBA win we can't relegate them. If WBA lose or draw, we can. No other results matter

 

[Balham]

Surely it is as simple as this - if WBA win we can't relegate them. If WBA lose or draw, we can.

No... follow Selly's flowchart.

Blackburn losing to Preston, WBA beating Coventry and Leicester losing to Stoke leaves the table like this:

WBA 37
Blackburn 35
Leicester 32
Oxford 28
SWFC -7

Wednesday could theoretically catch Leicester and Blackburn in that scenario. Results in the WBA v Blackburn and Leicester v Blackburn matches are irrelevant at this stage.

 

[CPsufc]

Because I apparently have nothing better to do, and because I prefer a visual medium to a wall of text, i did a flowchart outlining the scenarios. I haven`t included Oxford as what they do is irrelevant.

If I've made an error (likely) - let me know and I'll adjust and repost

View attachment 231309

The Blackburn Lose > West Brom Draw > Leicester Draw or Lose would still take it to Sunday. Yes West Brom play Blackburn but a win for either would mean Wendy could catch the other on Goal Difference. Same with the Blackburn Lose > West Brom Lose > Leicester Win. I think?!

 

[Dkc]

No... follow Selly's flowchart..

Blackburn losing to Preston, WBA beating Coventry and Leicester losing to Stoke leaves the table like this:

WBA 37
Blackburn 35
Leicester 32
Oxford 28
SWFC -7

Wednesday could theoretically catch Leicester and Blackburn in that scenario. Results in the WBA v Blackburn and Leicester v Blackburn matches are irrelevant at this stage.

Leicester could well lose to Stoke but I can't see Blackburn beating Preston. I can definitely see Coventry winning at WBA though

 

[Selly]

The Blackburn Lose > West Brom Draw > Leicester Draw or Lose would still take it to Sunday. Yes West Brom play Blackburn but a win for either would mean Wendy could catch the other on Goal Difference. Same with the Blackburn Lose > West Brom Lose > Leicester Win. I think?!

I think you are correct - revised diagram

 

[staton]

Because I apparently have nothing better to do, and because I prefer a visual medium to a wall of text, i did a flowchart outlining the scenarios. I haven`t included Oxford as what they do is irrelevant.

If I've made an error (likely) - let me know and I'll adjust and repost

View attachment 231309

Because I apparently have nothing better to do, and because I prefer a visual medium to a wall of text, i did a flowchart outlining the scenarios. I haven`t included Oxford as what they do is irrelevant.

If I've made an error (likely) - let me know and I'll adjust and repost

View attachment 231309

As a scientist and scholar before I retired I am well use to those kinds of flowchart. That is quite brilliant and technically correct in all aspects and shows every scenario. However, you should consider a streamlined version. The red options (future fixtures) would only come into play if Wendy survived until April or May. That is when the points are credited for those games. In terms of taking D-Day to Sunday the Leicester result has then become irrelevant. Follow your chart and if Blackburn lose at home to Preston it goes to Sunday. At least a draw and they can't be caught. Then, a WBA win at home to Coventry and Wednesday are relegated. Draw or lose and it goes to Sunday. It does show that even if they survived this weekend and went on a long, winning run, they would be done for in April anyway. Well before then the other teams would only need a couple of points to relegate them. i.e. BLACKBURN LOSS ON FRIDAY or WBA DRAW OR LOSS ON SATURDAY - IT GOES TO SUNDAY.

 

[TCW]

As a scientist and scholar before I retired I am well use to those kinds of flowchart. That is quite brilliant and technically correct in all aspects and shows every scenario. However, you should consider a streamlined version. The red options (future fixtures) would only come into play if Wendy survived until April or May. That is when the points are credited for those games. In terms of taking D-Day to Sunday the Leicester result has then become irrelevant. Follow your chart and if Blackburn lose at home to Preston it goes to Sunday. At least a draw and they can't be caught. Then, a WBA win at home to Coventry and Wednesday are relegated. Draw or lose and it goes to Sunday. It does show that even if they survived this weekend and went on a long, winning run, they would be done for in April anyway. Well before then the other teams would only need a couple of points to relegate them. i.e. BLACKBURN LOSS ON FRIDAY or WBA DRAW OR LOSS ON SATURDAY - IT GOES TO SUNDAY.

No idea how this works but could they officially be relegated due to future fixtures? Mathematically they could not catch up, but the fixture has not been played. I am guessing they would be officially relegated but unsure of how the EFL see it.

 

[Farnboroughblade]

Don’t want to tempt fate, but it would be a bit ironic if there’s heavy snow over the weekend and most of the game are called off. That would cock up the flowchart for a couple of weeks.

 

[staton]

The more I think about this the more confusing it gets. Wendys current situation is so bad that it has never been seen before. On the brink of relegation with 14 games to go and -7 points. The earliest ever relegation was with 7 games left in late March. In reality they have been down for weeks. We have this great desire for it to happen at the Lane on Sunday. They could end up 35 relative points behind Leicester, WBA and Blackburn on Saturday needing a goal difference swing of 30-38 goals. With 42 points still to play for will the EFL and media declare them relegated? I don't think so, but, If they consider the back to back games they might. There is no precedent but it appears they can (AI).
IF they draw with us they are relegated. IF not one of the other 3 only need a point from the next game to send them down. It will be a big relief once it's all over. Maybe then we can concentrate on the maths of how we make the play-offs!

 

[staton]

Don’t want to tempt fate, but it would be a bit ironic if there’s heavy snow over the weekend and most of the game are called off. That would cock up the flowchart for a couple of weeks.

Perfect, as long as it doesn't affect Sheffield and we remember the under-soil heating.

 

[Bladeloyal]

Perfect, as long as it doesn't affect Sheffield and we remember the under-soil heating.

13 degrees Sunday sub tropical

 

[ancientblade]

Of course we go out and win as big as we possibly can. Wednesday have to come to win to avoid us relegating them. If they bring their usual damage limitation game they will look even more pathetic.

i cant see any way wednesday will do owt but park the bus and try and hit us on the counter attack if they come to the lane to have a go at us we will murder them their defence is shocking

 

[djbaldken]

So..........As I read it............on Sunday we could send Wednesday down.
But......
He draws from the left, so lean to the right.
there's a wind from the east. So you better aim to the west.
He crouches when he shoots so stand on your toes.

Or
He draws from the left so stand on your toes... There's a wind from the east, better lean to the right... He crouches when he shoots, better aim to the west... He draws from his toes, so lean toward the wind.

Think I've got it now!

Roll on 2pm Sunday ffs.

 

[Tezza1889]

4th from bottom are west brom on 34 points..

If we beat them sunday the best they can get is 32 points..

So they cant catch 4th bottom..

They will survive saturday unless there are some freak results.

We need to give them a pasting they will never forget, and mock them all the way back to the sty..

 

[Frank the tank]

4th from bottom are west brom on 34 points..

If we beat them sunday the best they can get is 32 points..

So they cant catch 4th bottom..

They will survive saturday unless there are some freak results.

We need to give them a pasting they will never forget, and mock them all the way back to the sty..

 

[Big.Dane.w]

Personally I really hope Blackburn take points off Preston and we take 3 points Sunday whether we relegate them or not.

 

[CornwallBlade]

Def not getting carried away .. this is their only game of relevance left so expecting a close hard fought game tbh .. just stating the maths that’s all

Absolutely not a pop at you mate just that Derby day, especially with such a lot at stake for both sides, makes me nervous. Arsenal drew with bloody Wolves tonight!

 

[radio]

I too noticed the Wolves / Arsenal result and the fact that The Gunners went in front early in the game then went 2 up , ,the gap between us and Wednesday is vast , I am not comparing it to the gap between Arsenal and Wolves but that gap is also huge , ,, I never include any local derby game in any football ACCA bet ,it is the day the underdog has their chance , this Sunday is their cup final the only chance they have of achieving anything this season, we can and should win but if we go onto the pitch with the same thoughts of many of our fans thinking we already won 4-0 5-0 6-0 we could come unstuck , the job needs to be done , unlike Arsenal who didn't do the job at Wolves and Palace who didn't do the job at Macclesfield ,,on the flip side the Wednesday fans saying it doesn't matter if United send them down, you are wrong ladies and gentlemen,boys and girls ,,, it really does ,,,and will never be forgotten COYRAWW. UTB