Why it has to be Newcastle

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GreasyChipBeattie

GreasyChipBeattie

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Here's the last 6 games with a forecast based on the current gaps being maintained
My money would be on it not getting any worse before then, and of course any improvement makes the last-6 task even more achievable.
So it looks like it it's Newcastle we have to catch....and that involves beating them at theirs. Do that, and it's very much game on.
There are, of course, several possible out comes that could either benefit, or scupper our survival hopes.
For example Fulham.
They could turn a draw against Newcastle into a win and have an unexpected win at Chelsea or Southampton.
(They don't have a game listed for the 24th yet, but I put 3 points down anyway)

Green text = win
Yellow text = draw
Red text = defeat


24th April1st May8th May11th/12th MayMay 15thMay 23rdPointsBlades GainCurrent GapFinal Gap
BladesBrighton - HomeSpurs - AwayPalace - HomeEverton - AwayNewcastle - AwayBurnley - Home13
BrightonBlades - AwayLeeds - HomeWolves - AwayWest Ham - HomeMan City - HomeArsenal - Away6711-4
BurnleyWolves - AwayWest Ham - HomeFulham - AwayLeeds - HomeLiverpool - HomeBlades - Away7612-6
NewcastleLiverpool - AwayArsenal - HomeLeicester - AwayMan City - HomeBlades - HomeFulham - Away11212GD
FulhamNo Game Listed YetChelsea - AwayBurnley - HomeSouthampton - AwayMan U - AwayNewcastle - Home5835
WBAVilla - AwayWolves - HomeArsenal - AwayLiverpool - HomeWest Ham - HomeLeeds - Away5817
 



GreasyChipBeattie said:
Here's the last 6 games with a forecast based on the current gaps being maintained
My money would be on it not getting any worse before then, and of course any improvement makes the last-6 task even more achievable.
So it looks like it it's Newcastle we have to catch....and that involves beating them at theirs. Do that, and it's very much game on.
There are, of course, several possible out comes that could either benefit, or scupper our survival hopes.
For example Fulham.
They could turn a draw against Newcastle into a win and have an unexpected win at Chelsea or Southampton.
(They don't have a game listed for the 24th yet, but I put 3 points down anyway)

Green text = win
Yellow text = draw
Red text = defeat


24th April1st May8th May11th/12th MayMay 15thMay 23rdPointsBlades GainCurrent GapFinal Gap
BladesBrighton - HomeSpurs - AwayPalace - HomeEverton - AwayNewcastle - AwayBurnley - Home13
BrightonBlades - AwayLeeds - HomeWolves - AwayWest Ham - HomeMan City - HomeArsenal - Away6711-4
BurnleyWolves - AwayWest Ham - HomeFulham - AwayLeeds - HomeLiverpool - HomeBlades - Away7612-6
NewcastleLiverpool - AwayArsenal - HomeLeicester - AwayMan City - HomeBlades - HomeFulham - Away11212GD
FulhamNo Game Listed YetChelsea - AwayBurnley - HomeSouthampton - AwayMan U - AwayNewcastle - Home5835
WBAVilla - AwayWolves - HomeArsenal - AwayLiverpool - HomeWest Ham - HomeLeeds - Away5817
Click to expand...
Great post. You've almost got me believing!
 
Sorry, I'm with Maidenhead , this is meaningless. So much will change by then. If you're trying to say there's plenty of chance to make it, then I'm with you, but even being my most optimistic, if we get to 6 games to go and we haven't gained on anyone, we aren't going to go on that run.
 
Hamburg Blade said:
Sorry, I'm with Maidenhead , this is meaningless. So much will change by then. If you're trying to say there's plenty of chance to make it, then I'm with you, but even being my most optimistic, if we get to 6 games to go and we haven't gained on anyone, we aren't going to go on that run.
Click to expand...
Boooooooooo!
 
take it game by game, we could lose the next 4, no point in getting hopes up
 
GreasyChipBeattie said:
Here's the last 6 games with a forecast based on the current gaps being maintained
My money would be on it not getting any worse before then, and of course any improvement makes the last-6 task even more achievable.
So it looks like it it's Newcastle we have to catch....and that involves beating them at theirs. Do that, and it's very much game on.
There are, of course, several possible out comes that could either benefit, or scupper our survival hopes.
For example Fulham.
They could turn a draw against Newcastle into a win and have an unexpected win at Chelsea or Southampton.
(They don't have a game listed for the 24th yet, but I put 3 points down anyway)

Green text = win
Yellow text = draw
Red text = defeat


24th April1st May8th May11th/12th MayMay 15thMay 23rdPointsBlades GainCurrent GapFinal Gap
BladesBrighton - HomeSpurs - AwayPalace - HomeEverton - AwayNewcastle - AwayBurnley - Home13
BrightonBlades - AwayLeeds - HomeWolves - AwayWest Ham - HomeMan City - HomeArsenal - Away6711-4
BurnleyWolves - AwayWest Ham - HomeFulham - AwayLeeds - HomeLiverpool - HomeBlades - Away7612-6
NewcastleLiverpool - AwayArsenal - HomeLeicester - AwayMan City - HomeBlades - HomeFulham - Away11212GD
FulhamNo Game Listed YetChelsea - AwayBurnley - HomeSouthampton - AwayMan U - AwayNewcastle - Home5835
WBAVilla - AwayWolves - HomeArsenal - AwayLiverpool - HomeWest Ham - HomeLeeds - Away5817
Click to expand...

If I offered you being 6 points away from safety, with 6 games left, would you take that now based on the above?
 
GreasyChipBeattie said:
Here's the last 6 games with a forecast based on the current gaps being maintained
My money would be on it not getting any worse before then, and of course any improvement makes the last-6 task even more achievable.
So it looks like it it's Newcastle we have to catch....and that involves beating them at theirs. Do that, and it's very much game on.
There are, of course, several possible out comes that could either benefit, or scupper our survival hopes.
For example Fulham.
They could turn a draw against Newcastle into a win and have an unexpected win at Chelsea or Southampton.
(They don't have a game listed for the 24th yet, but I put 3 points down anyway)

Green text = win
Yellow text = draw
Red text = defeat


24th April1st May8th May11th/12th MayMay 15thMay 23rdPointsBlades GainCurrent GapFinal Gap
BladesBrighton - HomeSpurs - AwayPalace - HomeEverton - AwayNewcastle - AwayBurnley - Home13
BrightonBlades - AwayLeeds - HomeWolves - AwayWest Ham - HomeMan City - HomeArsenal - Away6711-4
BurnleyWolves - AwayWest Ham - HomeFulham - AwayLeeds - HomeLiverpool - HomeBlades - Away7612-6
NewcastleLiverpool - AwayArsenal - HomeLeicester - AwayMan City - HomeBlades - HomeFulham - Away11212GD
FulhamNo Game Listed YetChelsea - AwayBurnley - HomeSouthampton - AwayMan U - AwayNewcastle - Home5835
WBAVilla - AwayWolves - HomeArsenal - AwayLiverpool - HomeWest Ham - HomeLeeds - Away5817
Click to expand...
You have forgotten to factor in Brucies luck factor. Example Southampton currently have horrendous injury problems and have just had 2 men sent off, meaning they miss next game. Guess who they play next?
 
bakeblade said:
You have forgotten to factor in Brucies luck factor. Example Southampton currently have horrendous injury problems and have just had 2 men sent off, meaning they miss next game. Guess who they play next?
Click to expand...
Yeah, I thought that mate 😩
 
bakeblade said:
You have forgotten to factor in Brucies luck factor. Example Southampton currently have horrendous injury problems and have just had 2 men sent off, meaning they miss next game. Guess who they play next?
Click to expand...
Our Ched will do them over though mate ;)
 
bakeblade said:
You have forgotten to factor in Brucies luck factor. Example Southampton currently have horrendous injury problems and have just had 2 men sent off, meaning they miss next game. Guess who they play next?
Click to expand...
So much is down to timing/luck of the draw. Brighton met Spurs at just the right time. Liverpool had just ended (if they were ever there), their title hopes and Kane was out injured. 2 weeks before Spurs would probably have won. Now Newcastle play Saints at just the right time. I would say that we probably played Man U at the right time. They had just come off the back of 2 back to back games against Liverpool, where they give an extra 10% and then suddenly it’s little old Sheff Utd and it’s hard to get motivated and the adrenaline going.
 



You cant trust the top teams to field a strong squad at season's end unless they are still in the running...
Ref: See ManU v Shammers last time, and Liverpool v someone else who I cant quite remember but who was at the bottom with us? Liverpool gave them an easy ride.
 
vas borbokis said:
You cant trust the top teams to field a strong squad at season's end unless they are still in the running...
Ref: See ManU v Shammers last time, and Liverpool v someone else who I cant quite remember but who was at the bottom with us? Liverpool gave them an easy ride.
Click to expand...
I think I'm right in saying the season we went down, Liverpool fielded a weakened side against..... Fulham!
 
Newcastle are at home to psychologically damaged Southampton

Burnley at home to Brighton, somebody's gonna get points

Fulham at home to Wet Sham
Fulham will beat them I think

West Brom away at Spurs
Spurs should win

Let's hope Chelsea get welcomed by some foul Sheffield weather and don't quite fancy it, otherwise we might be well behind again come Sunday
 
As long as we don't get relegated WITH Newcastle. If we do go down I don't want to see the Championship any stronger than it presently is. If the barcodes do go down they maybe under new ownership by then with loads a moneh being pumped into them making them even more favourites for an instant return.
 
Saw the 2nd half vs Everton on Saturday. Everton were dugshyte but they beat us.
Wilson could have had another 2 goals at least against Everton, then look how crap they were against us and lost last night.
Nuts this division.
 
I’ve got Fulham v Leicester on and see vardy is still out. What’s the betting that he is back when we play them again and inevitably scores again.

These fine margins and mini battles against rivals like piggy steptoe will be pivotal to our chances.
 
Win half of our remaining games....it’s that simple.
 
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It's a weird position we're in at the moment. Ultimately, other results mean bugger all if we turn to shit again and fail to pick up a lot more points. In some ways that could be good for us because we have nothing to lose. If we go down this year, it will be nothing to do with other teams at all, it will be the fact we've only started playing properly halfway through the season.

I wouldn't worry about weakened teams, injuries, suspensions or huge slices of luck, we can't affect them. The only thing that we can affect is our results and what's in our control. What other teams do shouldn't really matter anyway, even less so this season for us.
 
GreasyChipBeattie said:
Here's the last 6 games with a forecast based on the current gaps being maintained
My money would be on it not getting any worse before then, and of course any improvement makes the last-6 task even more achievable.
So it looks like it it's Newcastle we have to catch....and that involves beating them at theirs. Do that, and it's very much game on.
There are, of course, several possible out comes that could either benefit, or scupper our survival hopes.
For example Fulham.
They could turn a draw against Newcastle into a win and have an unexpected win at Chelsea or Southampton.
(They don't have a game listed for the 24th yet, but I put 3 points down anyway)

Green text = win
Yellow text = draw
Red text = defeat


24th April1st May8th May11th/12th MayMay 15thMay 23rdPointsBlades GainCurrent GapFinal Gap
BladesBrighton - HomeSpurs - AwayPalace - HomeEverton - AwayNewcastle - AwayBurnley - Home13
BrightonBlades - AwayLeeds - HomeWolves - AwayWest Ham - HomeMan City - HomeArsenal - Away6711-4
BurnleyWolves - AwayWest Ham - HomeFulham - AwayLeeds - HomeLiverpool - HomeBlades - Away7612-6
NewcastleLiverpool - AwayArsenal - HomeLeicester - AwayMan City - HomeBlades - HomeFulham - Away11212GD
FulhamNo Game Listed YetChelsea - AwayBurnley - HomeSouthampton - AwayMan U - AwayNewcastle - Home5835
WBAVilla - AwayWolves - HomeArsenal - AwayLiverpool - HomeWest Ham - HomeLeeds - Away5817
Click to expand...
Great piece of work apart from the gaps to Brighton, Burnley and Newcastle are all wrong.
 
andy m said:
Great piece of work apart from the gaps to Brighton, Burnley and Newcastle are all wrong.
Click to expand...
Good spot mate. I did it and re-did it that many times, my head was spinning by the end!
It is of course (I think!) 10, 10 and 11 and not 11,11 and 12. So that's even less of a gap.
Well f**k me, we're practically safe already.
 



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