Why I think we can catch Leeds

[Maltby_blade]

Ignore the fact they beat us twice, take away their last minute winner against Sunderland, take away their superior GD, ignore all the attacking / defensive stats, ignore that they've played all best teams in the league, add back in our points deduction total.. . and I think we might be their equal.

It's on.

Or you could just look at the fact we are 3 points behind them with 33 still to play for. God forbid anyone who thinks it’s possible to overturn that…

 

[CrookesBlade]

It’s not too out there to suggest the title race could swing back in our favour in a similar way to the promotion race at the back end of 18/19 season. We felt we were dead and buried til they lost against 10 man Wigan then it all changed.

However Leeds are a much better side than they were then and Farke is a better manager for this situation than Bielsa.

That said it would be very “Leeds” to lose the title to a side they did the double over.

 

[thehet]

Whilst the ever pessimist in me says we won’t catch them, I was thinking about the remaining fixtures yesterday.

They have Pompey, QPR, Luton, Boro, Oxford and Plymouth all away.

For a team with a less than great away record these are all tricky.

 

[Berkshire Blade]

It's certainly not beyond the realms of impossibility.

Which is weird as by some posters in here we are actually having the season Luton are suffering with

 

[FATTYFOULKE]

Our next 3 games are entirely winnable.

Preston Sat 3:00 and Bristol City at home on a Tuesday night, Wednesday away. Can see us getting 9 points from them.

Leeds next 3, away to Portsmouth on a Sunday 12:00, home to Millwall on a Wednesday night and QPR on a Saturday 12:30.

We need to concentrate on getting top two firstly but the title race isn’t over.

 

[Stretch]

Leeds have done all the heavy lifting now so to speak, in terms of fixtures. But there is always a chance that complacency might creep in and they take their foot off the pedal a bit. It's unlikely with a manager of Farke's quality, especially after what he experienced last season, but it may happen.

We just have to focus on ourselves. Play each game like a cup final and keep ahead of Burnley. If we can grab the title along the way, that would be rather smashing.

 

[ISZA ⚔️]

They are also due a wobble and that hitting them just as their tails are up after beating Sunderland and us - giving them an arrogance/complacency about it being over - wouldn’t surprise me.

 

[ISZA ⚔️]

The title from -2 would be class.

 

[Blade58]

All we need to concentrate on is the next game.

The rest takes care of itself

 

[bladesince64]

From the moment we got the deduction I feared it would cost us - hopefully not the difference between 2nd and 3rd but the championship would be the biggest honour I’ve ever seen us win! (Same for most )

Sounds bizarre I know, but I wonder if the 2 points deduction has given us (as a collective, eg players, coaches supporters etc) a siege mentality and a backs to the wall determination to win, no matter what the odds against are.

 

[North Riding Blade]

The title from -2 would be class.

Would that not be wonderful, to piss on West Yorkshires chips and to give our own whingers a kick in the stones?

 

[Half Bond Jls]

Id love to beat them for first place. Work with loads of them. If we did it I'd be walking around site like

 

[ThatJa]

If Leeds are to drop points it will be around Easter. Fast games, tough schedule even for pro footballers.

 

[Living In a Fantasy World]

Nah sorry but Leeds are just the best team this season, we're 4 points behind them because of goal difference.
Sure it was good to see them drop points and us winning after what was a disheartening defeat to them. Hopefully they will drop more points has I just can't trust any united side to be consistent enough and we are bound to drop points.
We need to be more concerned about Burnley, they are flying high and with their defensive record and we should be very worried, I don't know if their last cup game where they let in three goals, will have any impact (hopefully it does), but league wise they are full of confidence and will likely win if they score first due to how great they have been defensively.

 

[Valleyblade]

Will it though? All you have to back this assertion is a few historical occasions where it's been true. There are plenty more where they haven't bottled anything. And besides, every season is a different set of players with different attitudes and resilience, possibly a different manager, and several other variables. To say their (or any team's) bottle will go is just silly.

Yes, rationally this is true.

I'd rather not fork out 300 quid per person to test your theory in the play off final though.

 

[North Riding Blade]

Yes, rationally this is true.

I'd rather not fork out 300 quid per person to test your theory in the play off final though.

Just out of interest, which valley?

 

[Zero dark thirty]

A home win for us next Saturday will take us level on points with Leeds,who then have a tricky away game at Portsmouth on Monday.
It could all look very different next week.
I’m not sure why people want to jump the gun and declare Leeds champions with 11 to play.

Lose that game and Leeds win another scenario

 

[JJBlade]

5 games against the other three top four teams and we've lost four of them with Burnley away to come.
Burnley, who shut up shop quite easily on free scoring teams, so I'd suggest our 20% possession and zero shots on target when we play them won't be a problem.

 

[Frank the tank]

5 games against the other three top four teams and we've lost four of them with Burnley away to come.
Burnley, who shut up shop quite easily on free scoring teams, so I'd suggest our 20% possession and zero shots on target when we play them won't be a problem.

Ah that's nice

 

[blade too long]

And still some moan...come on, believe

 

[Champagneblade]

Listen. Leeds are absolutely fantastic. We are playing for 2nd

There’s literally one point between the two of the teams in terms of on field performance, notwithstanding the dubious 2 point penalty and that’s having given them 6 points ourselves.

If Monday’s match had finished 5 minutes earlier then we’d be level on points and on field we’d have managed better results by two points. Shame we couldn’t hold out or take advantage of our first half performance more.

What we need to do is win on Saturday and have them play with some pressure on them.

They have 6 away matches and we have 6 home matches. Could be the difference.

They average 1.82 points per game away or 11 more points. 2.5 points per game at home, so 12 more. That gives them 99 points.

We average 2.06 away, so 10 more and 2.24 so 13 more.

So pretty much parity. Just a question of who blinks first!

Room for them to bottle it still, if we keep up the pressure.

 

[CPB]

I think that Leeds will still get the title but as the weekend shows they ain't going to win every match before the end of the season and I would bet they will lose at least once too.

I thought it after our match a week ago today. All of us chasing these two spots are going to drop points. I suspect in the end that 2nd will be achieved requiring something like 91 or 92 points and not the 95 or 96 that the current trajectories perhaps suggest.

As nice as it would be to finish 1st I'm more bothered about just making sure we finish above 3rd!

Hoping Cardiff can stop Burnley from winning this week. Even a draw makes that gap bigger than a week ago.

 

[Champagneblade]

Quite interesting to contrast the opponent point per game.

United at home (2.24) vs away team PPG
Preston (0.88)
Bristol C (1.00)
Coventry C (1.28)
Millwall (1.18)
Cardiff C (0.71)
Blackburn R (1.12)

In each case we are over a PPG better than the away side, Coventry closest with 0.96 difference.

For Leeds away, who average 1.82:
Portsmouth (1.71)
QPR (1.44)
Luton (1.44)
Oxford (1.61)
Plymouth (1.47)

The disparity is at best 0.38 and at worst just 0.11. This could suggest games much closer.

When we flip this, our away record of 2.06 stands up quite well:
Wednesday (1.22)
Oxford (1.61)
Plymouth (1.47)
Burnley (2.06)
Stoke (1.28)

Burnley a tough one but otherwise the range is as wide as 0.84 to 0.45.

For the record they average 2.50 PPG at home so come up well vs:
Millwall (1.18)
Swansea C (1.00)
Preston (0.88)
Stoke (0.76)
Bristol C (1.0)

Leeds’ home record is very good, but it could be away that they lose it, if they were to lose it.

 

[utd4ever]

Leeds don’t just have great players they have a very good manager.

We have some great players and a squad capable of finishing 2nd.

 

[Isar]

Hoping Cardiff can stop Burnley from winning this week. Even a draw makes that gap bigger than a week ago.

Leeds G/D is amazing.
We just need to focus on matching Burnley game for game on points.

A Cardiff win or draw, although very unlikely would be wonderful for us.

 

[blade too long]

Leeds don’t just have great players they have a very good manager.

We have some great players and a squad capable of finishing 2nd.

After last seasons debacle what Wilder has done for us is ferkin amazing, Leeds finished 3rd last season and had a head start on us with regards to squad..

 

[Chimpan-A]

I watched the first half hour of their WBA match. The fawning from the comms team was way overboard in that half hour: everything from recruitment to the softness and absorbency of the shithouse paper in their concourse toilets is the best that has ever graced the Championship. It’s to shut them up more than anything that makes me want to overtake them and win the thing. I wonder how they would play it? Probably still say they were the true champions no doubt.

 

[Badger Blade]

It's about their mentality.

All well and good getting fired up for against a game against us - local and promotion rivals but it comes down to turning up at an away game miles away at Plymouth or Portsmouth who are fighting at the other end and having the same level of focus and intensity. Sides like that aren't going to just turn up and get their bellies tickled - Plymouth especially have proved that over the last few weeks in the Cup.

If Leeds can do that, then they'll win the league. If they don't, the win against us pales into insignificance as long as we can do the same against middling teams like Preston, Bristol City, Pigs, Millwall etc which are all banana skins but we ought to win if we're on top of our game, or close to.

 

[Not_a_Cheat]

Will it though? All you have to back this assertion is a few historical occasions where it's been true. There are plenty more where they haven't bottled anything. And besides, every season is a different set of players with different attitudes and resilience, possibly a different manager, and several other variables. To say their (or any team's) bottle will go is just silly.

Still got the same scum fans though, and when their bottle goes, it becomes worth a goal start for the opposition.

 

[LBA_Blade]

I went to Old Trafford yesterday with a Fulham mate (away end). We got onto the topic of the championship with a few, they (Fulham fans) keep a track of Burnley because of Scott Parker and have seen some games but what I did find amazing was how good they thought Leeds were and the difference between if the current top 3 came up vs chances in the Premier League. They wrote us off completely (which on current squad is difficult to disagree with) but it was Leeds will stay up. My point on that was unless they have at least £100million to invest in the squad they, us or the play off winners (if that's how it turns out) are all in the same boat of struggling. If you look at the 3 that went up last season all of Leicester. Ipswich and Leeds finished the championship season on 90+ points with Southampton only 3 behind before they won the playoffs and all 3 of them are occupying the bottom 3 Premier League spots. Since Fulham's promotion from the Championship, they have spent £100's of millions in both infrastructure with a brand new £100million stand plus signing players such as Berge for £25million plus many others, their 3rd summer back was a spend of nearly £90million, yes they sold Pereira for circa £50million to Bayern which helped but they did buy him for £25mill 2 seasons before and for a club where their average attendance is under 25,000 matchday revenue streams are limited and they rely on "tourist fans" and corporate "fans" in that new stand where a single regular ticket is £80-120 !

To compete in the Premier League you have to either gamble like Forest did or have another thing you can offset FFP against such as infrastructure. Ultimately though it means we need to be investing around £100million every season into the playing squad and more if there are other projects to try and make the club sustainable. Although the Premier League is the "promise land" it does get frustrating in a sense of yes we could get up this season but realistically the knives will be out as soon as we are losing a few.