View From... Cancelling the season

[SittingontheBall]

Scare-mongering in the extreme. How will there be "not enough people fit enough to run water....." when most people will feel nothing more than as if they had a mild bout of flu? Once people have had it, then they're free to go back to work. And if it really was to run rampant and everyone was getting it in a short space of time then there would be no need to self-isolate and spend longer off work than the few days that someone is laid up in bed. It is the actions taken to limit the spread of the virus that is causing the economic problem, not the virus itself, which for the vast majority of the population is not a big problem.

You don’t get it do you?
All our key services have had their resource levels cut back in the name of productivity and efficiency that they have limited resilience.
That’s why there aren’t enough beds/doctors/nurses/support staff in hospitals in winter (arguably all year round). It applies across the board - just last summer a few bolts of lightning and the power is off across a swathe of the country - a bit of snow and we grind to a halt - etc.etc.
What’s happened with the food supply currently is partly down to lack of resilience. Yes there is panic buying but the reason it’s a problem is “just in time” resourcing that can’t respond when something completely unexpected, unplanned happens. That’s what covid19 is.
I’m not scaremongering. I simply don’t have my head in the sand. I recognise that what passes for a secure modern life in a first world country has a huge number of interdependent parts that have to be kept in balance in order to avoid major problems.
Bruce Wayne said a few posts ago that he thought there were things we weren’t being told. He could be right but it’s also possible that there are many of the huge number of interdependencies we don’t recognise.

 

[Berkshire Blade]

How much do you want to bet that there won't be 500,000 UK deaths in the first wave?
"It can adapt" is just more scare-mongering. Yes it can. It could also not adapt. Chicken pox could adapt and kill us all. The sky could fall in.
If there is no immunity to the virus then there won't be a vaccine. What are we going to do, hide in our houses forever?

Give the NHS and government enough time to build a massive amount of spare beds and equipment. Why are some people not getting this. China built hospitals just for the virus what have we done? Wash your hands and don't go to the pub as much? It's going to be a total shit show in a few weeks

 

[YES Blade]

Probability is that 80% of the population will get some level of Covid-19 the mortality rate is between 1 and 2 % so looking at the UK the loss of life through this virus in its first spike potentially could be over 500,000 ( at 1%)
This is a virus with no strong evidence of immunity after being infected, indeed there are reports of people having it more than once.
It will take between 12 and 18 months to have a vaccine for mass distribution.
In that time Covid -19 can adapt and become more lethal.
So looking world wide this disease could kill 20-40 million in that time but it's ok it wont be any of the emergency and other public services

Bloody hell, could you be anymore pessimistic? We might as well all just drink the kool aid now!

 

[Bruce Wayne]

Probability is that 80% of the population will get some level of Covid-19 the mortality rate is between 1 and 2 % so looking at the UK the loss of life through this virus in its first spike potentially could be over 500,000 ( at 1%)
This is a virus with no strong evidence of immunity after being infected, indeed there are reports of people having it more than once.
It will take between 12 and 18 months to have a vaccine for mass distribution.
In that time Covid -19 can adapt and become more lethal.
So looking world wide this disease could kill 20-40 million in that time but it's ok it wont be any of the emergency and other public services

Hang on here, Boris said yesterday we will be through though this in 12 weeks. Was he fibbing?

And another thought to ponder. China are now declaring they have no new internal new cases in the last 3 days. They only went on lock down on Jan 23rd so less than 2 months to beat the virus. Why is the rest of the world saying maybe up to a year to beat this thing?

 

[Berkshire Blade]

Hang on here, Boris said yesterday we will be through though this in 12 weeks. Was he fibbing?

And another thought to ponder. China are now declaring they have no new internal new cases in the last 3 days. They only went on lock down on Jan 23rd so less than 2 months to beat the virus. Why is the rest of the world saying maybe up to a year to beat this thing?

He said the tide will turn in 12 weeks. In other words 12 weeks of rising infections and deaths.

China went into total lockdown but that leaves you likely to get bigger second waves

 

[blade too long]

People are not thinking anything through
there are thousands of hospitals doctors surgeries and care homes
To deliver the amount of stuff alone will take a week, Until we can use a star trek transporter to get things as fast as people are expecting we have to deliver in trucks and vans that will need picking from warehouses loading put in some sort of delivery schedule then physically delivered, If each delivery takes an hour its not going to get done by 5pm

 

[Bruce Wayne]

He said the tide will turn in 12 weeks. In other words 12 weeks of rising infections and deaths.

China went into total lockdown but that leaves you likely to get bigger second waves

So you reckon China are going to get it again and even worse? Do you reckon that's why we aren't enforcing a lockdown like Italy, Spain etc.

 

[blade too long]

He said the tide will turn in 12 weeks. In other words 12 weeks of rising infections and deaths.

China went into total lockdown but that leaves you likely to get bigger second waves

The bbc were this morning ramping up the hysteria
after telling us china had had its second day of no new cases it then said that all the chinese in the world returning had SOARED to 39 returning cases
why not say was only 39, in a country of a billion plus 39 is NOT a soaring number

And the panic they are whipping up over Italy , A country where theres a larger over 80 population than anywhere else thats been hit , of course more will die there they have the ideal patients who will die,
life expectancy is 85 in italy its 70 in korea , its no wonder more are dying there as the average age of those dying is 81

 

[Berkshire Blade]

The bbc were this morning ramping up the hysteria
after telling us china had had its second day of no new cases it then said that all the chinese in the world returning had SOARED to 39 returning cases
why not say was only 39, in a country of a billion plus 39 is NOT a soaring number

And the panic they are whipping up over Italy , A country where theres a larger over 80 population than anywhere else thats been hit , of course more will die there they have the ideal patients who will die,
life expectancy is 85 in italy its 70 in korea , its no wonder more are dying there as the average age of those dying is 81

Stop talking shit like you know anything.

This is from a doctor in Italy. Young are getting it seriously too. They may not die but they will take up beds meaning others do die.

 

[Bladesman]

Coronavirus: Premier League players join charity FIFA 20 tournament

It's been organised by League Two club Leyton Orient to keep fans entertained while games are postponed.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[blade too long]

Stop talking shit like you know anything.

This is from a doctor in Italy. Young are getting it seriously too. They may not die but they will take up beds meaning others do die.

young getting the virus yes , dying no ,

only 2 under 60 have died one in his 40s 1 59 both with severe health problems

 

[Berkshire Blade]

getting the virus yes , dying no

And what do you think happens when people who need intensive care can't get it as the beds are full. Have you been paying attention? This is what flattening the curve is all about.

 

[blade too long]

And what do you think happens when people who need intensive care can't get it as the beds are full. Have you been paying attention? This is what flattening the curve is all about.

Give the beds to the most vulnerable
some will have very unpleasant symptons but wont die
they are the calls that must be made
as Ive said no matter what you do with some over 70s they will die , thats what killer viruses do
the doctors have said people are dying and he feels helpless , but that was always going to be the case

getting mad about it wont change it

we wont be as bad as italy for deaths as we have less over 80s ,its just a fact

 

[Hamburg Blade]

You don’t get it do you?
All our key services have had their resource levels cut back in the name of productivity and efficiency that they have limited resilience.
That’s why there aren’t enough beds/doctors/nurses/support staff in hospitals in winter (arguably all year round). It applies across the board - just last summer a few bolts of lightning and the power is off across a swathe of the country - a bit of snow and we grind to a halt - etc.etc.
What’s happened with the food supply currently is partly down to lack of resilience. Yes there is panic buying but the reason it’s a problem is “just in time” resourcing that can’t respond when something completely unexpected, unplanned happens. That’s what covid19 is.
I’m not scaremongering. I simply don’t have my head in the sand. I recognise that what passes for a secure modern life in a first world country has a huge number of interdependent parts that have to be kept in balance in order to avoid major problems.
Bruce Wayne said a few posts ago that he thought there were things we weren’t being told. He could be right but it’s also possible that there are many of the huge number of interdependencies we don’t recognise.

You are saying key services should be run - and funded - in readiness for a pandemic. How much extra would you like to see spent on the NHS and how much extra in tax are you willing to pay?
How do you propose to change the power grid so that it is more resiliant and how much extra on your electric bill are you willing to pay?
How many more gritters and council workers would you like to see bought/employed and how much extra on your rates are you willing to pay?
I worked for many years in logistics and understand fully how just-in-time works and why companies use it. Can you explain how food production and supply can work with stock holding beyond requirements, how that will affect pricing, how you will prevent unfair competition when one food production company changes its logistics, builds new warehouses, staffs them, factors in waste but another doesn't? How much extra are you prepared to pay on your weekly food bill?
Perhaps answering these questions with realistic answers will help me "get it".

 

[Berkshire Blade]

Give the beds to the most vulnerable
some will have very unpleasant symptons but wont die

Or...just stop going to the pub, order it in and socially distance without having to make unpleasant choices!!?

 

[Hamburg Blade]

Give the NHS and government enough time to build a massive amount of spare beds and equipment. Why are some people not getting this. China built hospitals just for the virus what have we done? Wash your hands and don't go to the pub as much? It's going to be a total shit show in a few weeks

That only holds true if the UK government are actually building more hospitals. I know they are obtaining equipment as fast as they can, but are they building new hospitals? And when did they start?

 

[Berkshire Blade]

That only holds true if the UK government are actually building more hospitals. I know they are obtaining equipment as fast as they can, but are they building new hospitals? And when did they start?

They are not. It's going to be a total shit show

 

[Hamburg Blade]

They are not. It's going to be a total shit show

I posted a while ago that the UK (and Europe) had notice of this a couple of months ago and could've started building right then, or acquisitioning buildings and placing orders for equipment. They didn't, now they want to close down pubs and restaurants. I generally agree with their idea that the virus has to be allowed to spread except as slowly as possible, but there could have been so much more done before they hit people's businesses and livelihoods.

 

[Berkshire Blade]

Yes. When the bones are being picked out of how governments dealt with it in inquiries when the world is back to normal this will probably be the biggest point.

 

[blade too long]

IN THIS OUTBREAK WHICH LOOKS LIKE LASTING 3 TO 4 MONTHS LOOKING AT CHINA WE CAN UTILISE EMPTY HOTELS
Building hospitals takes too long

all the army medical corps and retrurning nhs staff can staff them

 

[Berkshire Blade]

IN THIS OUTBREAK WHICH LOOKS LIKE LASTING 3 TO 4 MONTHS LOOKING AT CHINA WE CAN UTILISE EMPTY HOTELS
Building hospitals takes too long

all the army medical corps and retrurning nhs staff can staff them

You clearly have no idea what went on in China then. Note the date of the news story and how quickly they built them.

Coronavirus: How can China build a hospital so quickly?

Wuhan is building a new hospital that will be finished within six days, according to China's state media.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[blade too long]

You clearly have no idea what went on in China then. Note the date of the news story and how quickly they built them.

Coronavirus: How can China build a hospital so quickly?

Wuhan is building a new hospital that will be finished within six days, according to China's state media.

www.bbc.co.uk

they dont have to get building permissions

where can you erect an emergency hospital building in central london without months of planning permissions
and the standard objections


and why bother , its a temporary , hopefully virus ,, use whats already there we can start tommorrow

we need the money to build new proper
hospitals when we get past this

 

[Berkshire Blade]

they dont have to get building permissions

Are you a troll? In a time like these red tape gets shoved aside pretty easily

 

[blade too long]

Are you a troll? In a time like these red tape gets shoved aside pretty easily

if you say so ,,,,but whats the point , we probably only need it in the next 12 16 weeks

in china they dont mind who they trample on , its certainly not like that here

 

[Berkshire Blade]

if you say so ,,,,but whats the point , we probably only need it in the next 12 16 weeks

in china they dont mind who they trample on , its certainly not like that here

It's a prefab. It can come down easily if not needed. What's more important? Having our hospitals packed full or having to take down a prefab?!

I wish you well but will stop responding to you now. It's doing my head in! Stay well!

 

[SittingontheBall]

.........life expectancy is 85 in italy its 70 in korea......

You are saying key services should be run - and funded - in readiness for a pandemic. How much extra would you like to see spent on the NHS and how much extra in tax are you willing to pay?
How do you propose to change the power grid so that it is more resiliant and how much extra on your electric bill are you willing to pay?
How many more gritters and council workers would you like to see bought/employed and how much extra on your rates are you willing to pay?
I worked for many years in logistics and understand fully how just-in-time works and why companies use it. Can you explain how food production and supply can work with stock holding beyond requirements, how that will affect pricing, how you will prevent unfair competition when one food production company changes its logistics, builds new warehouses, staffs them, factors in waste but another doesn't? How much extra are you prepared to pay on your weekly food bill?
Perhaps answering these questions with realistic answers will help me "get it".

Words in mouth, big time.
I didn't say any of those things.
Your whole post is based on what you have inferred from what I said, not what I actually said.

Can I remind you that I was responding to your accusation that I was “scaremongering in the extreme” by suggesting there would not be enough people to run (as an example) the water supply system?

My examples of lack of resilience in the various systems were intended to demonstrate why if 20% (Government figure even with flattening of the curve) of the population are off sick at any one time the systems might struggle (and hence if the virus were allowed to run rampant serious problems could ensue).

I also prefer to think that panic buying is a consequence of people thinking “how will I feed the family if I am banged up for 14 days” rather than just out and out hoarding and that is why the supermarkets haven’t been coping well. Nonetheless, it is a consequence of covid19 that is not directly health related and should not be played down.

I am not making a political point about spending more money on stuff to increase resilience. Nor am I having a go at people in public or private services or logistics. I am merely challenging your opinion that too much emphasis is being put on health by pointing out the possible broader consequences of not doing so.

These sorts of exchanges can help us all to recognise the seriousness of the position we are in and the need to balance the risks to both health and the economy. I have a vested interest in neither, and rely on the Government to determine the right balance.

 

[Hamburg Blade]

Words in mouth, big time.
I didn't say any of those things.
Your whole post is based on what you have inferred from what I said, not what I actually said.

Can I remind you that I was responding to your accusation that I was “scaremongering in the extreme” by suggesting there would not be enough people to run (as an example) the water supply system?

My examples of lack of resilience in the various systems were intended to demonstrate why if 20% (Government figure even with flattening of the curve) of the population are off sick at any one time the systems might struggle (and hence if the virus were allowed to run rampant serious problems could ensue).

I also prefer to think that panic buying is a consequence of people thinking “how will I feed the family if I am banged up for 14 days” rather than just out and out hoarding and that is why the supermarkets haven’t been coping well. Nonetheless, it is a consequence of covid19 that is not directly health related and should not be played down.

I am not making a political point about spending more money on stuff to increase resilience. Nor am I having a go at people in public or private services or logistics. I am merely challenging your opinion that too much emphasis is being put on health by pointing out the possible broader consequences of not doing so.

These sorts of exchanges can help us all to recognise the seriousness of the position we are in and the need to balance the risks to both health and the economy. I have a vested interest in neither, and rely on the Government to determine the right balance.

What you "actually" said was very critical of the system and very political. If that's not what you wanted to say, you should have phrased it differently. You reeled it off after throwing accusations around. I just asked you how you would like to see it done differently and whether you would be willing to pay for it. These things could be different and I respect that some people will point out that more spending in certain areas could have made the situation better. It's just that most people don't want to pay when push comes to shove.
If you don't want to change the system, fair enough, but when you say that you are pointing out broader consequences to not putting emphasis on health, you're actually doing the opposite - all the things you are worried about are the consequences of the measures being put in place to limit the spread, they are not the consequences of the virus itself.
Even if no measures were taken at all, not everyone in the country will catch the virus at the same time and most of those that do will not be laid so low by it that they can't work for weeks at a time.

 

[Bruce Wayne]

So if social distancing is going to last a year the best we can hope for is behind closed doors games until March 2021 if any football at all.

How's this going to work with season ticket renewels?

 

[SittingontheBall]

What you "actually" said was very critical of the system and very political. If that's not what you wanted to say, you should have phrased it differently. You reeled it off after throwing accusations around. I just asked you how you would like to see it done differently and whether you would be willing to pay for it. These things could be different and I respect that some people will point out that more spending in certain areas could have made the situation better. It's just that most people don't want to pay when push comes to shove.
If you don't want to change the system, fair enough, but when you say that you are pointing out broader consequences to not putting emphasis on health, you're actually doing the opposite - all the things you are worried about are the consequences of the measures being put in place to limit the spread, they are not the consequences of the virus itself.
Even if no measures were taken at all, not everyone in the country will catch the virus at the same time and most of those that do will not be laid so low by it that they can't work for weeks at a time.

This exchange has become as pointless as those on Brexit.
The level of certainty you are displaying in these uncertain times is breathtaking.
I’m done now.

 

[Deadbat]

So if social distancing is going to last a year the best we can hope for is behind closed doors games until March 2021 if any football at all.

How's this going to work with season ticket renewels?

Doctors are saying that we need to keep social distancing for a year for non essential activities. That's Football.

I said it before.

My predictions sadly will be:

We won't watch any Football in a stadium till August 2021.

I also said that this season that finished in March 2020 will resume in March 2021 at the earliest and behind closed doors.

As I say Football is done for 12 months in any capacity. Best case scenario.