Updated Post Oxford “We Can Still Finish 6th”

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ucandomagic

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Just got back home from staying over after the Oxford game in the Hunters Bar Buddhist Meditation Centre AirBnB - Om!

So 2 games down -16 to go - and still spot on target on both playoff pathways - they don’t diverge for a while. A funny old game against Oxford - quite the opposite from recently. This time we didn’t really create a lot of chances but, unlike us, we were quite clinical - and we even gave them a goal start. A poor tackle from Femi and they have a speculative shot which Coops just blocks forwards for an easy tap-in by Peart-Harris. On a damp greasy night Coops should probably have pushed it sideways, rather than try to take it.

Our first goal was a lovely ball from Blaster to Burrows who pulled back a perfect cross with his right foot and Sydie passed the ball beautifully into the corner. (I bet Harrison hasn’t got many right foot assists). For our second, the defender went to ground but failed to dispossess Cannon, who pulled it back for Brooks to shimmy to his left and curl it in. Ogbene came on after about 70 minutes, as Brooks had had a slight knock, and I was hoping to see Oggie’s blistering pace going down the wing. What I wasn’t expecting, was to see him calmly take a 40-yard pass from Gus, knock it past the defender with his chest and slide it confidently into the net! That was game over, as Oxford basically just lay down and died. Usual bizarre bits of refereeing of course, such as Sydie getting booked for being kicked, but 3 points on the board and on to Boro.

Table 1 shows my 2 pathways, for the last 18 games, which would achieve either a possible playoff place with 71 points or a probable playoff place, with 77 points.

The Table shows that the red numbers are still on target, and the dream is still on!

Table 1:
Matchday 30 Playoff Target Table.webp


Graph 1
shows the whole season visually, and you can see the pathways through the red line. I want to see the red line climbing above the targets - but perhaps I shouldn’t get greedy.

Graph 1:
Matchday 30 Paths to the Prem.webp


Finally the colour annotated League Table - 15th and rising. Keep scoring 3 at home and the job's half done!! I don't want to see red again though!

League Table:
Matchday 30 League Table.webp


I’m really looking forward to Monday night and Phillips and/or Rothwell in front of an increasingly solid-looking Tanganga and Bindon. Boro have been looking really good lately and strengthened well, particularly Sarmiento from Brighton, so it will be a real test. If we are still on track after the Boro game, maybe some of the less-hopeful Blades will start to allow themselves at least a flutter of optimistic excitement!

UTB & Slava Ukraini!
 



You do realise both your 'possible' and 'probable' predictions have us down as not losing a single one of the last 16 games? I'd love to think that's possible but what are the chances of going 19 games unbeaten (as we're already unbeaten in 3 now)??? I love the optimism but I think it's much more likely that we'll finish on around 65 points. I still think that'd be an amazing achievement after the start we had though.
 
You do realise both your 'possible' and 'probable' predictions have us down as not losing a single one of the last 16 games? I'd love to think that's possible but what are the chances of going 19 games unbeaten (as we're already unbeaten in 3 now)??? I love the optimism but I think it's much more likely that we'll finish on around 65 points. I still think that'd be an amazing achievement after the start we had though.
This has been discussed before.

The pathway results are not forecasts, but the easiest paths to achieve the end goal. We probably will lose a game or two, but then a win in one of the draws on the pathway would balance those 2 losses. We can only hope!!

UTB & FTP!
 
You do realise both your 'possible' and 'probable' predictions have us down as not losing a single one of the last 16 games? I'd love to think that's possible but what are the chances of going 19 games unbeaten (as we're already unbeaten in 3 now)??? I love the optimism but I think it's much more likely that we'll finish on around 65 points. I still think that'd be an amazing achievement after the start we had though.
To be fair hes put us down for 6 drawn games , we rarely draw , so if those 6 draws are 3 wins and 3 losses we get 9 points instead of 6
or 2 wins 1 draw and 3 losses is 7 not 6 . so theres wiggle room there, if we get it together we can I believe get away with just 2 losses with 3 wins and a draw so 10 instead of 6 points
 
The Table shows that the red numbers are still on target, and the dream is still on!

Table 1:
View attachment 230363


Graph 1
shows the whole season visually, and you can see the pathways through the red line. I want to see the red line climbing above the targets - but perhaps I shouldn’t get greedy.

Graph 1:
View attachment 230364


Finally the colour annotated League Table - 15th and rising. Keep scoring 3 at home and the job's half done!! I don't want to see red again though!

League Table:
View attachment 230365


I’m really looking forward to Monday night and Phillips and/or Rothwell in front of an increasingly solid-looking Tanganga and Bindon. Boro have been looking really good lately and strengthened well, particularly Sarmiento from Brighton, so it will be a real test.
notable we have played all the top 6 away, just got 3 at home , winning those would be a great help
 
I've had the same uneasy feeling for a few weeks now.
We go into the last match and win to get 6th, lose and Derby get 6th, draw and somone else grabs it.
If we go into the last game still with a chance, then it’s a bloody triumph and will have kept our season having a meaning right to the end!

My uneasy feeling is that we lose the next 2 and effectively go into a 14-match series of friendlies (or rather 13- I don’t think Feb 22nd will be friendly!)

UTB & FTP!
 
If we go into the last game still with a chance, then it’s a bloody triumph and will have kept our season having a meaning right to the end!

My uneasy feeling is that we lose the next 2 and effectively go into a 14-match series of friendlies (or rather 13- I don’t think Feb 22nd will be friendly!)

UTB & FTP!
I would rather have my uneasy feling than your uneasy feeling.
 
If we are still on track after the Boro game, maybe some of the less-hopeful Blades will start to allow themselves at least a flutter of optimistic excitement!
To put things into perspective- at the start of December we were 19th in the table and 10 points off the playoffs.

Over the past 2 months we’ve been one of the most in-form teams in the league.

However, two months on from the start of December and we’ve climbed up 4 places in the league and have gained only 2 points on sixth place.

As much as it’s nice to see we’re top of the league for form over the past 15- we’re 12th in the last 5.

We are not as consistent as we’d need to be to sustain a playoff charge from the position we’re in.
 
To put things into perspective- at the start of December we were 19th in the table and 10 points off the playoffs.

Over the past 2 months we’ve been one of the most in-form teams in the league.

However, two months on from the start of December and we’ve climbed up 4 places in the league and have gained only 2 points on sixth place.

As much as it’s nice to see we’re top of the league for form over the past 15- we’re 12th in the last 5.

We are not as consistent as we’d need to be to sustain a playoff charge from the position we’re in.
Looking backwards at a small sample is seldom appropriate for projection.
We have played 2 Top 6 sides in the last 5 and taken 4 points off them.
We had 2 players sent off at Charlton and should still have got something.
We were crap at Southampton - and team selection was wrong.
We beat Oxford.

The purpose of GraphMan's thread is to look realistically at the rest of the season, allowing for the strength of the opponents, and identify the easiest path to achieving 2 point targets. So far, we are meeting those targets.

They are not predictions - simply a way of assessing if the targets continue to remain realistic. The longer that the targets remain realistic - the more hopeful that we can get of achieving them. Once the red line falls significantly below the dashed target lines the less realistic that target becomes.

The past is gone. This thread is about taking the present (form, fitness, recruitment) and regularly monitoring the realism of achieving 2 targets by looking at future fixtures. To date, we are on target for both - end of story.

UTB & FTP!
 
The past is gone. This thread is about taking the present (form, fitness, recruitment) and regularly monitoring the realism of achieving 2 targets by looking at future fixtures. To date, we are on target for both - end of story.

UTB & FTP!
I’m explicitly referring to our recent form when I talk about tempering expectations.

It’s all well and good getting 4 points from teams in the top 6, but we’re not just trying to break into the top 6, we’ve got to overtake 9 other teams- some of which are in better recent form than we are- and teams like Derby and Wrexham have had a theoretically very strong transfer window.

The idea that we can ‘realistically’ go the rest of the season unbeaten when we’ve lost 3/5 of our previous away games is mad.
 
I repeat - these are not predictions, just the easiest path to a target.

We will probably lose a game or two, and may equally win a target draw or 2.

The thread does not forecast that we will get into the playoffs. The thread simply shows, in an ongoing way, how close we are to a realistic path. None of the results taken on their own are unrealistic.

If I can understand this, it baffles me that people keep taking them as predictions.

If I'm looking at it today, I would say the wins at Portsmouth and home against Hull are probably the most difficult, but certainly not unrealistic - especially with our window acquisitions.

Our chances of Top 6 are certainly odds against - but where there's life there's hope.

UTB & FTP!
 



Wasn't sure initially who we want to win in the Millwall-Wrexham game at the weekend. At first glance it seems obvious. If Wrexham (6th) lose we'll be looking at a 5 or 6 points gap to the play offs presuming we beat Boro. But that would mean Millwall (5th) would be 14 points above us (ahead of our game) and still 11 if we beat Boro. Probably uncatchable.

In that scenario the best we could hope for barring a massive Millwall collapse is 6th, and we'd be fighting it out with about ten other clubs. Wrexham win and we win and the gap remains eight points - but eight points to 5th and 6th, not just 6th.

Thinking about it, a draw is by far the best result, which means we would gain a couple of points on both of them if we win. Saying that, it will be very tough to take three points v Boro.
 

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