dannycorker
Member
Thought I'd make a thread to keep updated to show just how much 2nd place is in our own hands to take now. After each game I'll update it, to show the MAXIMUM points we'll need to guarantee 2nd spot, and the points that we should need based on SEASON FORM and RECENT FORM (5 matches). If nothing else it's something interesting for me to do.
MAXIMUM POINTS NEEDED
Wednesday - 57 Points, 15 Games remaining. Maximum Total = 102
Huddersfield - 55 Points, 16 Games remaining. Maximum Total = 103
United - 59 Points, 17 Games remaining. Maximum Needed = 104 from 17 games = 45 points needed or 2.65 points per game.
PROBABLE POINTS NEEDED (SEASON FORM)
For these numbers I've taken the percentage of wins, draws and losses and applied it to the rest of the season.
Wednesday - W17, D6, L8 = W55%, D19%, L8%
- 15 Games remaining = 8 Wins, 3 Draws, 4 Losses = 27 Points
- Total = 84 Points
Huddersfield - W14, D13, L3 = W47%, D43%, L10%
- 16 Games remaining = 8 Wins, 6 draws, 2 Loss = 30 Points
- Total = 85 Points
United - 59 Points, 17 Games remaining. Maximum Needed = 86 from 17 games= 27 points needed or 1.56 points per game.
POSSIBLE POINTS NEEDED (RECENT FORM)
For these numbers I've taken form from the last 5 games, and applied it to the rest of the season.
Wednesday - L,L,W,D,W = 7 Points from 5 games
- 15 Games remaining = 21 Points
- Total = 78 Points
Huddersfield - L,D,D,W,W = 8 Points from 5 games
- 16 Games remaining = 26 Points
- Total = 81 Points
United - 59 Points, 17 Games remaining. Maximum Needed = 82 from 17 games = 23 points needed or 1.35 points per game.
Now I know all this is just statistics, and a lot can change, but its looking good for us at this stage. As I said, I'll update it after each round of games and see how it looks. If you don't like it, sorry but I had some fun doing it and was bored to be honest Hope someone finds it interesting! And let me know if you spot any errors, did this in a bit of a rush!
EDIT: Here's a link to a rather impressive spreadsheet from SellyOakBlade, lots more info than I can include in just one post and easier to look at as well I think! https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AkNNNnOalY5WdF9MUUthTUFtRVhfOHZCY2FCQ3ZIT0E#gid=0
EDIT 2: Going to include relevant info for us and Charlton from a spreadsheet I made that I'll be updating after each set of games. Just points per game etc below here:
Link to spreadsheet if anyone's interested - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AiW7b704Nv1SdHk5SDloVHEyZGdxQTBpdGlkWFV3S0E
Charlton - Magic Number for promotion - 37 = 2.18 PPG
- Projected Number for promotion - 19 = 1.09 PPG
- Magic Number for 1st place - 44 = 2.59 PPG
Blades - Magic Number for promotion - 45 = 2.65 PPG
- Projected Number for promotion - 27 = 1.56 PPG
MAXIMUM POINTS NEEDED
Wednesday - 57 Points, 15 Games remaining. Maximum Total = 102
Huddersfield - 55 Points, 16 Games remaining. Maximum Total = 103
United - 59 Points, 17 Games remaining. Maximum Needed = 104 from 17 games = 45 points needed or 2.65 points per game.
PROBABLE POINTS NEEDED (SEASON FORM)
For these numbers I've taken the percentage of wins, draws and losses and applied it to the rest of the season.
Wednesday - W17, D6, L8 = W55%, D19%, L8%
- 15 Games remaining = 8 Wins, 3 Draws, 4 Losses = 27 Points
- Total = 84 Points
Huddersfield - W14, D13, L3 = W47%, D43%, L10%
- 16 Games remaining = 8 Wins, 6 draws, 2 Loss = 30 Points
- Total = 85 Points
United - 59 Points, 17 Games remaining. Maximum Needed = 86 from 17 games= 27 points needed or 1.56 points per game.
POSSIBLE POINTS NEEDED (RECENT FORM)
For these numbers I've taken form from the last 5 games, and applied it to the rest of the season.
Wednesday - L,L,W,D,W = 7 Points from 5 games
- 15 Games remaining = 21 Points
- Total = 78 Points
Huddersfield - L,D,D,W,W = 8 Points from 5 games
- 16 Games remaining = 26 Points
- Total = 81 Points
United - 59 Points, 17 Games remaining. Maximum Needed = 82 from 17 games = 23 points needed or 1.35 points per game.
Now I know all this is just statistics, and a lot can change, but its looking good for us at this stage. As I said, I'll update it after each round of games and see how it looks. If you don't like it, sorry but I had some fun doing it and was bored to be honest Hope someone finds it interesting! And let me know if you spot any errors, did this in a bit of a rush!
EDIT: Here's a link to a rather impressive spreadsheet from SellyOakBlade, lots more info than I can include in just one post and easier to look at as well I think! https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AkNNNnOalY5WdF9MUUthTUFtRVhfOHZCY2FCQ3ZIT0E#gid=0
EDIT 2: Going to include relevant info for us and Charlton from a spreadsheet I made that I'll be updating after each set of games. Just points per game etc below here:
Link to spreadsheet if anyone's interested - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AiW7b704Nv1SdHk5SDloVHEyZGdxQTBpdGlkWFV3S0E
Charlton - Magic Number for promotion - 37 = 2.18 PPG
- Projected Number for promotion - 19 = 1.09 PPG
- Magic Number for 1st place - 44 = 2.59 PPG
Blades - Magic Number for promotion - 45 = 2.65 PPG
- Projected Number for promotion - 27 = 1.56 PPG