Southampton is a must win

[Deadbat]

2PPG is needed. I believe we can do it. Enough other teams have been showing that they can’t sustain that.

We’ll see. As I said, I put in the effort to sit down and work out everyone’s 10-game form and project that over the rest of the season, precisely because of the traffic between us and 6th, to see where it landed. I’m going to give more weight to that than people’s personal opinion. I think that’s fair, and certainly inline with my style.

Have a nice evening. Or a shit one. Whichever makes you happiest.

Ok, I'll do some projections to back up my personal opinion.

Firstly, why did you pick just the last 10 games? A cynic would suggest it skews it in our favour of making it, as thats when our good run started?

I think a better and more accurate way to predict or see where we might end up, would be to look at the last 20 games ppg/form. Gives a longer sample size and also fits with the fact we have exactly 20 games left.

So if we replicate what we did over last 20, with next 20, where might we be. Course we could get more but could get less points. This also removes the dire Selles games.

I have got us averaging 1.6 over this time. That would put us on 64. Nearly every season last 10 years - last one was a rare exception as only 68- you need 70+ for the playoffs, so we'd still be short.

Being on 32 points now, we are going to have to get 38-40 pts from the last 20 games, averaging 2 points per game. Essentially it's 11 or 12 wins and 5 or 6 draws. from 20 games. We can basically only afford to lose 3 games, maybe 4. There are 14 teams above us from 3rd to 16th. This is a lot of teams to overtake.

If we lose 2 out of next 3 which sadly I think may happen due to some tough games (can see a point or win at Soton but not sure we get anything from two after that) then we would have to only lose 1 out of final 17.

Whichever way you square it, it's very unlikely rarher than more than possible, based on what we have already done this season.

 

[Cappy]

Ok, I'll do some projections to back up my personal opinion.

Firstly, why did you pick just the last 10 games? A cynic would suggest it skews it in our favour of making it, as thats when our good run started?

I think a better and more accurate way to predict or see where we might end up, would be to look at the last 20 games ppg/form. Gives a longer sample size and also fits with the fact we have exactly 20 games left.

So if we replicate what we did over last 20, with next 20, where might we be. Course we could get more but could get less points. This also removes the dire Selles games.

I have got us averaging 1.6 over this time. That would put us on 64. Nearly every season last 10 years - last one was a rare exception as only 68- you need 70+ for the playoffs, so we'd still be short.

Being on 32 points now, we are going to have to get 38-40 pts from the last 20 games, averaging 2 points per game. Essentially it's 11 or 12 wins and 5 or 6 draws. from 20 games. We can basically only afford to lose 3 games, maybe 4. There are 14 teams above us from 3rd to 16th. This is a lot of teams to overtake.

If we lose 2 out of next 3 which sadly I think may happen due to some tough games (can see a point or win at Soton but not sure we get anything from two after that) then we would have to only lose 1 out of final 17.

Whichever way you square it, it's very unlikely rarher than more than possible, based on what we have already done this season.

We are very different people Deadbat. You’re a self-confessed negative person. On topics such as these we are very unlikely to ever agree. So I will leave it just answering your question,,,

I chose 10 games for a few reasons. Firstly it is a very commonly provided longer form snapshot used by most websites showing form tables. They use 5/6/10 most commonly.

Second, I felt it did indeed better represent the “new” 25/26 sheff United. We were playing more like a Chris Wilder side in that period than we were before. It also included the stupid losses to wba and Wrexham. A cynic could say you want to include Wilder’s early games as it helps back up your negative outlook

By the way, if I’d chosen 11 instead of 10, we’d have been clear at the top of the ppg table instead of joint top. But 10 is a common standard. Sometimes, going forward, the 10 game form table (extrapolated over the season) may not paint a great picture, but at that moment it did, and made me realise that those saying we can’t make it probably hadn’t actually looked into it objectively, and instead were focusing on two recent daft losses.

As mentioned elsewhere, I continue to be energized by positivity as opposed to energized by negativity. I find it a great way to live. We can’t individually influence the outcome for sheff utd, but that mindset doesn’t half have a great impact on your life and of those around you.

Onwards into a new week of positive thinking