Promo Combo Update 2 after Cardiff game

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GreasyChipBeattie

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Updated after Cardiff game.
Luton still our main concern. Boro almost out of it.

The gap to Luton is still 5 points but with a one-better-than-last-week +11 goal difference.
To go up on GD:
If Luton P4 W4 D0 L0 we need to P5 W2 D1 L2
If Luton P4 W3 D1 L0 we need to P5 W1 D2 L2
If Luton P4 W3 D0 L1 we need to P5 W0 D4 L1
If Luton P4 W2 D2 L0 we need to P5 W1 D0 L4 or W0 D3 L2
If Luton P4 W2 D1 L1 we need to P5 W0 D2 L3
If Luton P4 W1 D3 L0 we need to P5 W0 D1 L4

Games fast running out for Boro to be able to catch us (Basically they're gone)
The gap is still 8 points with level goal difference.
So IF Luton fall away, the following sees us up by one point as too tight to call on GD:
If Boro P4 W4 D0 L0 we need to P5 W1 D1 L3 or W0 D4 L1
If Boro P4 W3 D1 L0 we need to P5 W0 D2 L3
If Boro P4 W3 D0 L1 we need to P5 W0 D1 L4
 

Updated after Cardiff game.
Luton still our main concern. Boro almost out of it.

The gap to Luton is still 5 points but with a one-better-than-last-week +11 goal difference.
To go up on GD:
If Luton P4 W4 D0 L0 we need to P5 W2 D1 L2
If Luton P4 W3 D1 L0 we need to P5 W1 D2 L2
If Luton P4 W3 D0 L1 we need to P5 W0 D4 L1
If Luton P4 W2 D2 L0 we need to P5 W1 D0 L4 or W0 D3 L2
If Luton P4 W2 D1 L1 we need to P5 W0 D2 L3
If Luton P4 W1 D3 L0 we need to P5 W0 D1 L4

Games fast running out for Boro to be able to catch us (Basically they're gone)
The gap is still 8 points with level goal difference.
So IF Luton fall away, the following sees us up by one point as too tight to call on GD:
If Boro P4 W4 D0 L0 we need to P5 W1 D1 L3 or W0 D4 L1
If Boro P4 W3 D1 L0 we need to P5 W0 D2 L3
If Boro P4 W3 D0 L1 we need to P5 W0 D1 L4
In the 3rd permutation we could just W1D1L3

Almost there. No point counting chickens but it is just about us. Another 7 points with our GD and it’s done. Let’s get three vs Bristol City and you’re then needed 1 point per game. Currently it’s 1.4 that is needed or 1.6 if you dismiss GD and we have a season average of 1.93.
 
If Middlesbrough can do us a favour and beat Luton, then one draw and a win sees us up, we could be promoted by next Wednesday 😁
If Luton and Boro both drop points midweek we could be up on Monday night...
 
If Luton and Boro both drop points midweek we could be up on Monday night...
If we drop points midweek we could be in third place by the time we play our next league game
 
If we drop points midweek we could be in third place by the time we play our next league game
Despite having two games in hand at that point , i would be worried...
 

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