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GreasyChipBeattie

GreasyChipBeattie

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With Luton and Boro realistically the only 2 who could catch us now, here are the latest possible combinations for the final run in.
Updated after Burnley game.
Luton are very much our main concern now, but unless they win all 5, promotion still looks very do-able :)
We could do with Boro beating Luton in their head to head, or at least draw - see results in bold for that.

The current gap to Luton is 5 points with a +10 goal difference.

This sees us up on goal difference as long as there is no big swing in Luton's favour.
If Luton P5 W5 D0 L0 and we P6 W3 D1 L2 or W2 D4 L0 = 86 points
If Luton P5 W4 D1 L0 and we P6 W2 D2 L2 or W1 D5 L0 = 84 points if Luton and Boro draw
If Luton P5 W4 D0 L1 and we P6 W2 D1 L3 or W1 D4 L0 = 83 points if Boro beat Luton
If Luton P5 W3 D2 L0 and we P6 W1 D3 L2 or W0 D6 L0 = 82 points
If Luton P5 W3 D1 L1 and we P6 W1 D2 L4 or W0 D5 L2 = 81 points
If Luton P5 W3 D0 L2 and we P6 W1 D1 L5 or W0 D4 L3 = 80 points
If Luton P5 W2 D2 L1 and we P6 W0 D3 L4 or W1 D0 L5 = 79 points

The gap to Boro is 8 points with a +1 goal difference.
If Luton fall away, this sees us up by one point as too tight to call on GD
If Boro P5 W5 D0 L0 and we P6 W2 D2 L2 or W1 D5 L0 = 84 points
If Boro P5 W4 D1 L0 and we P6 W2 D0 L4 or W1 D3 L2 = 82 points if Boro and Luton draw
If Boro P5 W4 D0 L1 and we P6 W1 D2 L3 or W0 D5 L1 = 81 points if Luton beat Boro
If Boro P5 W3 D2 L0 and we P6 W1 D1 L4 or W0 D4 L2 = 80 points
If Boro P5 W3 D1 L1 and we P6 W1 D0 L5 or W0 D3 L3 = 79 points
If Boro P5 W3 D0 L2 and we P6 W0 D2 L4 = 78 points
 

GreasyChipBeattie said:
With Luton and Boro realistically the only 2 who could catch us now, here are the latest possible combinations for the final run in.
Updated after Burnley game.
Luton are very much our main concern now, but unless they win all 5, promotion still looks very do-able :)
We could do with Boro beating Luton in their head to head, or at least draw - see results in bold for that.

The current gap to Luton is 5 points with a +10 goal difference.

This sees us up on goal difference as long as there is no big swing in Luton's favour.
If Luton P5 W5 D0 L0 and we P6 W3 D1 L2 or W2 D4 L0 = 86 points
If Luton P5 W4 D1 L0 and we P6 W2 D2 L2 or W1 D5 L0 = 84 points if Luton and Boro draw
If Luton P5 W4 D0 L1 and we P6 W2 D1 L3 or W1 D4 L0 = 83 points if Boro beat Luton
If Luton P5 W3 D2 L0 and we P6 W1 D3 L2 or W0 D6 L0 = 82 points
If Luton P5 W3 D1 L1 and we P6 W1 D2 L4 or W0 D5 L2 = 81 points
If Luton P5 W3 D0 L2 and we P6 W1 D1 L5 or W0 D4 L3 = 80 points
If Luton P5 W2 D2 L1 and we P6 W0 D3 L4 or W1 D0 L5 = 79 points

The gap to Boro is 8 points with a +1 goal difference.
If Luton fall away, this sees us up by one point as too tight to call on GD
If Boro P5 W5 D0 L0 and we P6 W2 D2 L2 or W1 D5 L0 = 84 points
If Boro P5 W4 D1 L0 and we P6 W2 D0 L4 or W1 D3 L2 = 82 points if Boro and Luton draw
If Boro P5 W4 D0 L1 and we P6 W1 D2 L3 or W0 D5 L1 = 81 points if Luton beat Boro
If Boro P5 W3 D2 L0 and we P6 W1 D1 L4 or W0 D4 L2 = 80 points
If Boro P5 W3 D1 L1 and we P6 W1 D0 L5 or W0 D3 L3 = 79 points
If Boro P5 W3 D0 L2 and we P6 W0 D2 L4 = 78 points
Click to expand...

Appreciate the effort and I do understand it.

Buy nay be easier posting as a spreadsheet going forward as kinda hard to read in that format.
 
Lutons fixtures are the hardest out of all 3 of the teams remaining fixtures:
Rotherham (a) - good team at home
Reading (a) - fighting for their lives wont be easy (should win though)
Boro (h) - good team depends if they've downed tools for the playoffs though
Blackburn (a) - fighting for the playoffs against a few
Hull (h) - Should win, Hull have nothing to play for

When you compare that to our 4 homes games then it really is ours to fuck up. I think we finish on 86 & Luton on 80.
 
GreasyChipBeattie said:
With Luton and Boro realistically the only 2 who could catch us now, here are the latest possible combinations for the final run in.
Updated after Burnley game.
Luton are very much our main concern now, but unless they win all 5, promotion still looks very do-able :)
We could do with Boro beating Luton in their head to head, or at least draw - see results in bold for that.

The current gap to Luton is 5 points with a +10 goal difference.

This sees us up on goal difference as long as there is no big swing in Luton's favour.
If Luton P5 W5 D0 L0 and we P6 W3 D1 L2 or W2 D4 L0 = 86 points
If Luton P5 W4 D1 L0 and we P6 W2 D2 L2 or W1 D5 L0 = 84 points if Luton and Boro draw
If Luton P5 W4 D0 L1 and we P6 W2 D1 L3 or W1 D4 L0 = 83 points if Boro beat Luton
If Luton P5 W3 D2 L0 and we P6 W1 D3 L2 or W0 D6 L0 = 82 points
If Luton P5 W3 D1 L1 and we P6 W1 D2 L4 or W0 D5 L2 = 81 points
If Luton P5 W3 D0 L2 and we P6 W1 D1 L5 or W0 D4 L3 = 80 points
If Luton P5 W2 D2 L1 and we P6 W0 D3 L4 or W1 D0 L5 = 79 points

The gap to Boro is 8 points with a +1 goal difference.
If Luton fall away, this sees us up by one point as too tight to call on GD
If Boro P5 W5 D0 L0 and we P6 W2 D2 L2 or W1 D5 L0 = 84 points
If Boro P5 W4 D1 L0 and we P6 W2 D0 L4 or W1 D3 L2 = 82 points if Boro and Luton draw
If Boro P5 W4 D0 L1 and we P6 W1 D2 L3 or W0 D5 L1 = 81 points if Luton beat Boro
If Boro P5 W3 D2 L0 and we P6 W1 D1 L4 or W0 D4 L2 = 80 points
If Boro P5 W3 D1 L1 and we P6 W1 D0 L5 or W0 D3 L3 = 79 points
If Boro P5 W3 D0 L2 and we P6 W0 D2 L4 = 78 points
Click to expand...
In other words we need to get more points than Luton or Boro.?
 
numberwang-thatsnumberwang.gif
 
3 wins and a draw guarantee us promotion unless Luton smash teams and get a better goal difference (or we get smashed by someone but that hasnt happened all season even yesterday with just 10 men - so win 3 out of our 4 home games and get a draw in the other 3 remaining matches and thats it !!
I like what you have done by looking at the possible results of our rivals and as Luton and Boro play each other its likely we dont need even that many maybe only 2 wins more could do it ?
 

RammyBlade said:
3 wins and a draw guarantee us promotion unless Luton smash teams and get a better goal difference
Click to expand...

In the event they do catch us on points, it would not take a lot for them to catch us up on goal difference. We're only 10 ahead right now. If we got the 10 points you say we need by, say, scraping a one goal win in three of our home games, drawing the other, and then losing the aways (against teams fighting for survival) something like 0-1 and 0-2, ours stays the same at +25. They would need to win out in that scenario, which puts them at +20. Sure, they don't have much previous for giving teams a hiding, but would it be that far fetched to say they put four past any one of Rotherham, Reading or Hull, and/or that Boro and Blackburn are, by the time they play them, resting players?
 
Futile permutation alert!

Our six games and Luton's five games have a combined total of 177,147 possible permutations. Of those, 163,000 have us finishing ahead on points, 5,501 have us level and 8,646 have Luton finishing higher. 95.1% of the permutations have us going up (assuming that level is ok due to our better GD).

If Boro is your preferred comparison, 174,472 permutations have us ahead, 1,355 have us level and 1,320 have us behind. That's 98.5% of permutations seeing us up (assuming that level is not ok due to our worse GD compared with Boro).
 
Geordie Blade said:
Futile permutation alert!

Our six games and Luton's five games have a combined total of 177,147 possible permutations. Of those, 163,000 have us finishing ahead on points, 5,501 have us level and 8,646 have Luton finishing higher. 95.1% of the permutations have us going up (assuming that level is ok due to our better GD).

If Boro is your preferred comparison, 174,472 permutations have us ahead, 1,355 have us level and 1,320 have us behind. That's 98.5% of permutations seeing us up (assuming that level is not ok due to our worse GD compared with Boro).
Click to expand...

Wow where did you get all those permutations from??
 
Geordie Blade said:
Futile permutation alert!

Our six games and Luton's five games have a combined total of 177,147 possible permutations. Of those, 163,000 have us finishing ahead on points, 5,501 have us level and 8,646 have Luton finishing higher. 95.1% of the permutations have us going up (assuming that level is ok due to our better GD).

If Boro is your preferred comparison, 174,472 permutations have us ahead, 1,355 have us level and 1,320 have us behind. That's 98.5% of permutations seeing us up (assuming that level is not ok due to our worse GD compared with Boro).
Click to expand...
That woman in " Hidden Figures" has been helping you again
 
jono_t2000 said:
Wow where did you get all those permutations from??
Click to expand...
3x3x3x3x3x3x3x3x3x3x3 = 177,147

Then just a case of writing them all out by hand:

LLLLLLLLLLL
LLLLLLLLLLD
LLLLLLLLLLW
LLLLLLLLLDL
LLLLLLLLLDD
LLLLLLLLLDW
LLLLLLLLLWL
LLLLLLLLLWD
LLLLLLLLLWW
LLLLLLLLDLL
…and so on, for 177,137 more rows.*

*Actually, an easier shortcut.
 
Geordie Blade said:
3x3x3x3x3x3x3x3x3x3x3 = 177,147

Then just a case of writing them all out by hand:

LLLLLLLLLLL
LLLLLLLLLLD
LLLLLLLLLLW
LLLLLLLLLDL
LLLLLLLLLDD
LLLLLLLLLDW
LLLLLLLLLWL
LLLLLLLLLWD
LLLLLLLLLWW
LLLLLLLLDLL
…and so on, for 177,137 more rows.*

*Actually, an easier shortcut.
Click to expand...

You asked ChatGPT didn't you 🤣
 
GreasyChipBeattie said:
With Luton and Boro realistically the only 2 who could catch us now, here are the latest possible combinations for the final run in.
Updated after Burnley game.
Luton are very much our main concern now, but unless they win all 5, promotion still looks very do-able :)
We could do with Boro beating Luton in their head to head, or at least draw - see results in bold for that.

The current gap to Luton is 5 points with a +10 goal difference.

This sees us up on goal difference as long as there is no big swing in Luton's favour.
If Luton P5 W5 D0 L0 and we P6 W3 D1 L2 or W2 D4 L0 = 86 points
If Luton P5 W4 D1 L0 and we P6 W2 D2 L2 or W1 D5 L0 = 84 points if Luton and Boro draw
If Luton P5 W4 D0 L1 and we P6 W2 D1 L3 or W1 D4 L0 = 83 points if Boro beat Luton
If Luton P5 W3 D2 L0 and we P6 W1 D3 L2 or W0 D6 L0 = 82 points
If Luton P5 W3 D1 L1 and we P6 W1 D2 L4 or W0 D5 L2 = 81 points
If Luton P5 W3 D0 L2 and we P6 W1 D1 L5 or W0 D4 L3 = 80 points
If Luton P5 W2 D2 L1 and we P6 W0 D3 L4 or W1 D0 L5 = 79 points

The gap to Boro is 8 points with a +1 goal difference.
If Luton fall away, this sees us up by one point as too tight to call on GD
If Boro P5 W5 D0 L0 and we P6 W2 D2 L2 or W1 D5 L0 = 84 points
If Boro P5 W4 D1 L0 and we P6 W2 D0 L4 or W1 D3 L2 = 82 points if Boro and Luton draw
If Boro P5 W4 D0 L1 and we P6 W1 D2 L3 or W0 D5 L1 = 81 points if Luton beat Boro
If Boro P5 W3 D2 L0 and we P6 W1 D1 L4 or W0 D4 L2 = 80 points
If Boro P5 W3 D1 L1 and we P6 W1 D0 L5 or W0 D3 L3 = 79 points
If Boro P5 W3 D0 L2 and we P6 W0 D2 L4 = 78 points
Click to expand...
Is your nickname with your mates Al Gritham?
 
I'm starting to agree with Frank the tank there's some fannies about. Our group chat some crying because boro are winning ffs. Like we can control that? Swear one is fallow
 

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