Play offs now in reach

All advertisments are hidden for logged in members, why not log in/register?




Let's have a bit less of the "woe is me" and a bit more "we can do this"!
Four straight wins from here would put us at the top end of this scrap for 6th place.
That would get us 12 points more than the 6 which teams averaging 1.5 per game would get.
Tall order? Oh yes. Doable? Yes!
There's a long way to go yet! Enjoy the ride Blades.
 
We've taken ten points from the past five games. Wins v Portsmouth Oxford and Ipswich, draw with Millwall and loss to Boro.

Unfortunately if you go back 10, 15 or 20 games it's more like 1.6 per game
 
Historical Playoff Points.webp

I asked GraphMan for this chart.

In the last 6 seasons, 7th place has never been above 70 - so 71 was enough for 6th place.

In the 5 seasons before that, 4 were significantly higher than 70 - Wolves even got 78 in 2015 and finished 7th.

The fact that there are still 9 teams above us chasing that 6th spot means that it is likely that somebody will have a 2ppg run-in and get 73 plus this year. So, we're probably going to need at least 73 points.

We have 8 home and 6 away - so win at home & draw away would get us 30 more points and 72 total. That is probably the absolute minimum requirement this year, and probably still not enough. Throw in an away win at Norwich, and 74 might well do it.

UTB & FTP!
 
  • Like
Reactions: Dkc
programmechap said:
After 32 games last season 6th was on 47 points and this season theyre on 48.

69 points got 6th last season, so it looks like around 70 will be enough this season.
Click to expand...

I don’t think it’s as simple as that, there are 9 teams above us in places 6-14. It will only take 1 of those teams to go on an amazing run and win 10 out of 14. We’re then looking at over 73 points.
 
YES Blade said:
I don’t think it’s as simple as that, there are 9 teams above us in places 6-14. It will only take 1 of those teams to go on an amazing run and win 10 out of 14. We’re then looking at over 73 points.
Click to expand...

It was pretty similar last season . West Brom were 6th on 47 after 32 games. Preston were 15th and on 40, so only 1 point more adrift than we are now.

Bristol City who finished 6th on 68 were in 7th place on 45. So they got 23 points from 14 games.

The best run of the contenders in those 14 games was Millwall who were in 14th on 40 after 32 games and finished 8th on 66 . So 26 from 14 games.

In other words, in a similar situation to this season none of the contenders managed as much as 2 points per game. If we do manage that over the next 14, we'll be on 70 and highly likely to qualify.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Dkc
programmechap said:
It was pretty similar last season . West Brom were 6th on 47 after 32 games. Preston were 15th and on 40, so only 1 point more adrift than we are now.

Bristol City who finished 6th on 68 were in 7th place on 45. So they got 23 points from 14 games.

The best run of the contenders in those 14 games was Millwall who were in 14th on 40 after 32 games and finished 8th on 66 . So 26 from 14 games.

In other words, in a similar situation to this season none of the contenders managed as much as 2 points per game. If we do manage that over the next 14, we'll be on 70 and highly likely to qualify.
Click to expand...

The problem for us is the distance.

Up to and including 6th there are nine clubs currently above us.

If only one of those nine teams even matches our results from now until the end of the season then it's impossible for us to get in the play offs.

Assuming the top five stay the same, only one of those teams has to stay above us to shut us out.

When you look at it like that it seems almost impossible.
 
We would need automatic promotion/champions form to get in, but would put us in fantastic stead if we could...
 
  • Like
Reactions: Dkc



PeterNdlovu081 said:
The problem for us is the distance.

Up to and including 6th there are nine clubs currently above us.

If only one of those nine teams even matches our results from now until the end of the season then it's impossible for us to get in the play offs.

Assuming the top five stay the same, only one of those teams has to stay above us to shut us out.

When you look at it like that it seems almost impossible.
Click to expand...
Millwall nearly did it last season. They came from 14th and finished 2 points off with just less than 2 points per game.

If we manage 2 a game I reckon its a 90% chance we'll qualify.
 
programmechap said:
Millwall nearly did it last season. They came from 14th and finished 2 points off with just less than 2 points per game.

If we manage 2 a game I reckon its a 90% chance we'll qualify.
Click to expand...

One match at a time and all that.

I reckon we'll be cooked by game 43 or 44 but you never know.

I remember one season not too long ago where the chasing pack were absolutely dreadful in the final few weeks of the season.

I think it must have been when Wednesday finished 6th in 2015-16 because I kept hoping they were going to drop out but nobody below them could string any results together.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Dkc
PeterNdlovu081 said:
One match at a time and all that.

I reckon we'll be cooked by game 43 or 44 but you never know.

I remember one season not too long ago where the chasing pack were absolutely dreadful in the final few weeks of the season.

I think it must have been when Wednesday finished 6th in 2015-16 because I kept hoping they were going to drop out but nobody below them could string any results together.
Click to expand...
I think out current chances are probably less than 1 in 3. Our players are play off standard but the Selles debacle has probably fatally handicapped us as we now need automatic promotion form.
 
PeterNdlovu081 said:
The problem for us is the distance.

Up to and including 6th there are nine clubs currently above us.

If only one of those nine teams even matches our results from now until the end of the season then it's impossible for us to get in the play offs.

Assuming the top five stay the same, only one of those teams has to stay above us to shut us out.

When you look at it like that it seems almost impossible.
Click to expand...
Not only distance but the fact that we are playing for one position as 5th place is 12 points ahead of us. As you say the 6 pts arent really the problem its the number of team between us and sixth plus the fact that we are really only playing for one spot, if 5th were 7 points in front and 4th were 8 pts that would be 3 spots up for grabs.
 
FriethBlade said:
Not only distance but the fact that we are playing for one position as 5th place is 12 points ahead of us. As you say the 6 pts arent really the problem its the number of team between us and sixth plus the fact that we are really only playing for one spot, if 5th were 7 points in front and 4th were 8 pts that would be 3 spots up for grabs.
Click to expand...
My point is that the teams from 6th to 15th are all much of a muchness as shown ny the fact that there's only 6 points between all of them.

My argument is purely that - if United did average 2 points a game for the rest of the season - they'd hit 70 points and its highly likely that would be enough for 6th because its not very likely any other of the teams would match that.

As for us getting 2 points per game, Id say thats unlikely, no more than a 30% chance.

So its more likely we wont make the play offs, but there's a not negligible chance we do, so we keep hoping :-)
 
The fact that we're even talking about the play-offs is a decent achievement given that we were talking about relegation until the New Year.

We celebrated Millwall beating Wrexham the other week as it allowed us to narrow the gap to 6th. But at the same time it put 5th and above out of reach. A draw would have been better.
 
Dkc said:
We celebrated Millwall beating Wrexham the other week as it allowed us to narrow the gap to 6th. But at the same time it put 5th and above out of reach. A draw would have been better.
Click to expand...

Not sure what your thinking is here.

Millwall winning that game still seems like the best outcome to me because it denied Wrexham any points.

It's no good theoretically being able to catch 3rd, 4th or 5th when we're still nine positions and six points away from 6th.

Anything above 6th doesn't make it any easier.
 
programmechap said:
My point is that the teams from 6th to 15th are all much of a muchness as shown ny the fact that there's only 6 points between all of them.

My argument is purely that - if United did average 2 points a game for the rest of the season - they'd hit 70 points and its highly likely that would be enough for 6th because its not very likely any other of the teams would match that.

As for us getting 2 points per game, Id say thats unlikely, no more than a 30% chance.

So its more likely we wont make the play offs, but there's a not negligible chance we do, so we keep hoping :-)
Click to expand...
I think it will take more than 70 this season as the top 3 teams arent taking as many points as last season for example. There are 3 teams that 'only ' need to average 1.5 pts a game to get to 69, one of them will probably get more.

Im not saying we cant do it but its going to need 10 wins from 14 games to do it in my opinion and also needs none of those 3 teams to win 8 games out of 14.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Dkc
Dkc said:
The fact that we're even talking about the play-offs is a decent achievement given that we were talking about relegation until the New Year.

We celebrated Millwall beating Wrexham the other week as it allowed us to narrow the gap to 6th. But at the same time it put 5th and above out of reach. A draw would have been better.
Click to expand...

Personally, I think we should’ve done better under Wilder, we’ve dropped points to some poor teams (Charlton and West Brom) and also blown some leads (Wrexham and Preston).

I think it’s an underachievement that we aren’t at least another 6 points better off this season. Our squad is good enough to be higher in the table right now.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

blade too long
Sending owls down next week
Replies
2
Views
714
bigblade
bigblade
Super_Dazzler
We’re not making the Play Offs…..simple maths
4 5 6
Replies
158
Views
11K
Nedski
Nedski
blade too long
play offs make or break February next 6
Replies
3
Views
476
Brian Deane
B
derfblade.3
February fixtures.....make or break!
Replies
13
Views
1K
Melbourne Blade
Melbourne Blade
P
Play Off form
Replies
22
Views
2K
GrimsbyBlade
G

All advertisments are hidden for logged in members, why not log in/register?

All advertisments are hidden for logged in members, why not log in/register?

Back
Top Bottom