Play offs now in reach

[PeterNdlovu081]

I presume this is a fairly rare stat?

Last season after 32 games only four teams had more than 48 points.

Leeds, us, Burnley and Sunderland.

 

[Silent Blade]

I presume this is a fairly rare stat?

Not sure, points per game is 1.5 so multiply that by 46 then it is 69.

 

[vas borbokis]

Let's have a bit less of the "woe is me" and a bit more "we can do this"!
Four straight wins from here would put us at the top end of this scrap for 6th place.
That would get us 12 points more than the 6 which teams averaging 1.5 per game would get.
Tall order? Oh yes. Doable? Yes!
There's a long way to go yet! Enjoy the ride Blades.

 

[mattbianco1]

What are the odds for us reaching the playoffs?

13/2 currently on Bet365

 

[blade too long]

good result last night , brisol city 2 wrexham 2 means 2 with a game in hand didnt stratch the 6 point gap

only 6 points between 6th and 16th means theres lots of very tight games coming up with 11 teams taking points off each other

 

[programmechap]

After 32 games, only 5 teams have more than 48 points.

After 32 games last season 6th was on 47 points and this season theyre on 48.

69 points got 6th last season, so it looks like around 70 will be enough this season.

 

[Fjortoft's Aeroplane]

After 32 games last season 6th was on 47 points and this season theyre on 48.

69 points got 6th last season, so it looks like around 70 will be enough this season.

Beat the pigs, then avg 2 pts per game after that = 71 pts.

 

[bakeblade]

Beat the pigs, then avg 2 pts per game after that = 71 pts.

I don't think we're good enough or consistent enough to achieve 2 PPG

 

[Dkc]

We've taken ten points from the past five games. Wins v Portsmouth Oxford and Ipswich, draw with Millwall and loss to Boro.

Unfortunately if you go back 10, 15 or 20 games it's more like 1.6 per game

 

[Working Class Hero]

I don't think we're good enough or consistent enough to achieve 2 PPG

We'll have done it for the past 18 games though (well, 1.95 to be precise), so there's no reason we can't do it for the next 13 in theory.

 

[ThirdGenBlade]

I asked GraphMan for this chart.

In the last 6 seasons, 7th place has never been above 70 - so 71 was enough for 6th place.

In the 5 seasons before that, 4 were significantly higher than 70 - Wolves even got 78 in 2015 and finished 7th.

The fact that there are still 9 teams above us chasing that 6th spot means that it is likely that somebody will have a 2ppg run-in and get 73 plus this year. So, we're probably going to need at least 73 points.

We have 8 home and 6 away - so win at home & draw away would get us 30 more points and 72 total. That is probably the absolute minimum requirement this year, and probably still not enough. Throw in an away win at Norwich, and 74 might well do it.

UTB & FTP!

 

[YES Blade]

After 32 games last season 6th was on 47 points and this season theyre on 48.

69 points got 6th last season, so it looks like around 70 will be enough this season.

I don’t think it’s as simple as that, there are 9 teams above us in places 6-14. It will only take 1 of those teams to go on an amazing run and win 10 out of 14. We’re then looking at over 73 points.

 

[programmechap]

I don’t think it’s as simple as that, there are 9 teams above us in places 6-14. It will only take 1 of those teams to go on an amazing run and win 10 out of 14. We’re then looking at over 73 points.

It was pretty similar last season . West Brom were 6th on 47 after 32 games. Preston were 15th and on 40, so only 1 point more adrift than we are now.

Bristol City who finished 6th on 68 were in 7th place on 45. So they got 23 points from 14 games.

The best run of the contenders in those 14 games was Millwall who were in 14th on 40 after 32 games and finished 8th on 66 . So 26 from 14 games.

In other words, in a similar situation to this season none of the contenders managed as much as 2 points per game. If we do manage that over the next 14, we'll be on 70 and highly likely to qualify.

 

[PeterNdlovu081]

It was pretty similar last season . West Brom were 6th on 47 after 32 games. Preston were 15th and on 40, so only 1 point more adrift than we are now.

Bristol City who finished 6th on 68 were in 7th place on 45. So they got 23 points from 14 games.

The best run of the contenders in those 14 games was Millwall who were in 14th on 40 after 32 games and finished 8th on 66 . So 26 from 14 games.

In other words, in a similar situation to this season none of the contenders managed as much as 2 points per game. If we do manage that over the next 14, we'll be on 70 and highly likely to qualify.

The problem for us is the distance.

Up to and including 6th there are nine clubs currently above us.

If only one of those nine teams even matches our results from now until the end of the season then it's impossible for us to get in the play offs.

Assuming the top five stay the same, only one of those teams has to stay above us to shut us out.

When you look at it like that it seems almost impossible.

 

[Mojo]

We would need automatic promotion/champions form to get in, but would put us in fantastic stead if we could...

 

[programmechap]

The problem for us is the distance.

Up to and including 6th there are nine clubs currently above us.

If only one of those nine teams even matches our results from now until the end of the season then it's impossible for us to get in the play offs.

Assuming the top five stay the same, only one of those teams has to stay above us to shut us out.

When you look at it like that it seems almost impossible.

Millwall nearly did it last season. They came from 14th and finished 2 points off with just less than 2 points per game.

If we manage 2 a game I reckon its a 90% chance we'll qualify.

 

[PeterNdlovu081]

Millwall nearly did it last season. They came from 14th and finished 2 points off with just less than 2 points per game.

If we manage 2 a game I reckon its a 90% chance we'll qualify.

One match at a time and all that.

I reckon we'll be cooked by game 43 or 44 but you never know.

I remember one season not too long ago where the chasing pack were absolutely dreadful in the final few weeks of the season.

I think it must have been when Wednesday finished 6th in 2015-16 because I kept hoping they were going to drop out but nobody below them could string any results together.

 

[103SecondsOfMagic]

Be nice to snatch it off Wrexham in the final day.
Put that in your documentary!

 

[programmechap]

One match at a time and all that.

I reckon we'll be cooked by game 43 or 44 but you never know.

I remember one season not too long ago where the chasing pack were absolutely dreadful in the final few weeks of the season.

I think it must have been when Wednesday finished 6th in 2015-16 because I kept hoping they were going to drop out but nobody below them could string any results together.

I think out current chances are probably less than 1 in 3. Our players are play off standard but the Selles debacle has probably fatally handicapped us as we now need automatic promotion form.

 

[FriethBlade]

The problem for us is the distance.

Up to and including 6th there are nine clubs currently above us.

If only one of those nine teams even matches our results from now until the end of the season then it's impossible for us to get in the play offs.

Assuming the top five stay the same, only one of those teams has to stay above us to shut us out.

When you look at it like that it seems almost impossible.

Not only distance but the fact that we are playing for one position as 5th place is 12 points ahead of us. As you say the 6 pts arent really the problem its the number of team between us and sixth plus the fact that we are really only playing for one spot, if 5th were 7 points in front and 4th were 8 pts that would be 3 spots up for grabs.