Reviewed the fixture list. Here are my takeaways
1. Beating one of Palace or Everton is essential. We don't want a repeat of the narrative of our last PL season.
2. There is a good chance we don't pick up a win between Spurs (A) (GW5) - Arsenal (A) (GW10)
3. I think Wolves at home is the biggest games of the season. Coming off that brutal Spurs - Arsenal stretch we'll need to pick up some momentum going into what is going to be a season defining run of fixtures between Wolves (GW11) - Luton (GW19).
4. March and April are going to be brutal. We'll likely need a pts total in the high 20s by the end of Feb to have a chance at survival.
5. The end of the season is relatively kind, and if we are in with a chance, those 3 games (Forest (H), Everton (A), Spurs (H)) will give us an opportunity to pick up pts.
This is what I think our pathway to survival is by month (38 pts has been enough for survival for the last decade):
| Games | Points Goal | PPG |
|---|
Aug | 3 | 4 | 1.33 |
Sep | 4 | 2 | 0.50 |
Oct | 3 | 1 | 0.33 |
Nov | 3 | 4 | 1.33 |
Dec | 7 | 8 | 1.14 |
Jan | 2 | 3 | 1.50 |
Feb | 4 | 5 | 1.25 |
Mar | 4 | 4 | 1.00 |
Apr | 5 | 3 | 0.60 |
May | 3 | 4 | 1.33 |
| 38 | 38 | 1 |
