ucandomagic
Well-Known Member
3 great points against a not very impressive Wigan, but we made heavy going of it again and put everybody’s blood pressure up! Apart from Iliman’s goal, Billy forced a world-class save from Amos in the first half and another decent one from a downward header in the second half. Iliman had another chance in the first half, when he bypassed Amos but hit his shot into McClean’s backside in front of an empty net, and Flecky should have had a pen in the second half – so we probably deserved an easier win than we got! I must admit that I found the substitution of Doyle a little baffling, unless there was some factor that we didn’t see. Anyway, as Hecky said in his post-match interview “It’s all about the points”.
For me the game was followed by a bizarre train journey to Stockport involving a load of Wigan fans, a group of Norwegians and a pulled emergency cord (but that’s a story for another day!). The excellent finish to the day was Kompany’s boys beating Teesside Town, getting promoted and giving us a nice gap before our trip to Turf Moor. May I wish them prolonged celebrations over the week-end!
So what does this do to the overall situation?
Graph 1 is the multiple comparison graph with our best recent Championship seasons. Graph 1 shows that after 39 games, on 76 points we are 2 points ahead of our 74 points in Wilder’s promotion season in 18/19 and 1 point ahead of Warnock’s 75 points from 39 games in 05/06. So it’s worth recording that this is our best Championship season after 39 games for over 20 years.
Graph 1:
Graph 2 compares where we are to my benchmark results for each game to achieve an automatic promotion or a playoff season. You can see from Graph 2 that on 76 points we are now still 1 point ahead of my Autos Certain line. This line is for 90 points and almost certain automatics – but on a few points below this line we would still have a very high probability of getting automatics this season. I’ve suggested in my run-in table below that 84 should be enough now.
Graph 2:
Next, the League Table, and a healthy 8 point gap over the Mad Hatters and 9 points over Boro, with a game in hand on both. Anything from Burnley on Monday will be a real bonus now. Incidentally, Wigan became our 5th double of the season. Let's make it 6 on Monday!
League Table:
Finally, my Run-In Table. Those of you who have read my earlier threads will recall that I assume an absolute maximum credible 2.5 points per game (ppg) in the run-in for our nearest rivals, and then calculate what we would need to do to match the best of them.
The Run-In Table below shows that the Mad Hatters and Teesside Town have projected credible maximums of 83 and 82 respectively. So, our target to beat that is now 8 points from 7 games at a ppg of 1.14. I’ll keep putting the updated target ppg in the thread title after each matchday.
Run-In Table:
So, I hope everybody got the Wembley tickets that they were after amidst the bizarre early morning behaviour of our ticketing website! 2 or 3 more wins before Wembley, and it will be a day of celebration before, during and after the game, irrespective of the result!
UTB & Slava Ukraini
For me the game was followed by a bizarre train journey to Stockport involving a load of Wigan fans, a group of Norwegians and a pulled emergency cord (but that’s a story for another day!). The excellent finish to the day was Kompany’s boys beating Teesside Town, getting promoted and giving us a nice gap before our trip to Turf Moor. May I wish them prolonged celebrations over the week-end!
So what does this do to the overall situation?
Graph 1 is the multiple comparison graph with our best recent Championship seasons. Graph 1 shows that after 39 games, on 76 points we are 2 points ahead of our 74 points in Wilder’s promotion season in 18/19 and 1 point ahead of Warnock’s 75 points from 39 games in 05/06. So it’s worth recording that this is our best Championship season after 39 games for over 20 years.
Graph 1:
Graph 2 compares where we are to my benchmark results for each game to achieve an automatic promotion or a playoff season. You can see from Graph 2 that on 76 points we are now still 1 point ahead of my Autos Certain line. This line is for 90 points and almost certain automatics – but on a few points below this line we would still have a very high probability of getting automatics this season. I’ve suggested in my run-in table below that 84 should be enough now.
Graph 2:
Next, the League Table, and a healthy 8 point gap over the Mad Hatters and 9 points over Boro, with a game in hand on both. Anything from Burnley on Monday will be a real bonus now. Incidentally, Wigan became our 5th double of the season. Let's make it 6 on Monday!
League Table:
Finally, my Run-In Table. Those of you who have read my earlier threads will recall that I assume an absolute maximum credible 2.5 points per game (ppg) in the run-in for our nearest rivals, and then calculate what we would need to do to match the best of them.
The Run-In Table below shows that the Mad Hatters and Teesside Town have projected credible maximums of 83 and 82 respectively. So, our target to beat that is now 8 points from 7 games at a ppg of 1.14. I’ll keep putting the updated target ppg in the thread title after each matchday.
Run-In Table:
So, I hope everybody got the Wembley tickets that they were after amidst the bizarre early morning behaviour of our ticketing website! 2 or 3 more wins before Wembley, and it will be a day of celebration before, during and after the game, irrespective of the result!
UTB & Slava Ukraini
