Matchday 33 Graphs – Blades Take The Sting Out Of The Hornets – Target PPG Now 1.77

[ucandomagic]

I was shaking all over as the ball bounced around our penalty area in the 95th minute – but I’ll blame the cold weather!! I thought Watford showed their class up front with a flowing athletic display, but this game was won by our warriors’ performances, mostly off the ball. Three warriors at the back, and a couple up front. Oli McB for me was motm – he battled for everything – and I have seldom seen us win so many aerial duals up front. I’m giving him an assist for the goal as well!

For personal reasons, West Brom are my most hated club – but today I was a full-on Baggie, and the result at The Hawthorns made it a perfect afternoon. The Seaweed & Aeons & Christmas Cake & Cinnamon tastes especially good tonight (one for the Scotch lovers).

So, after getting the show back on the road, how does everything look in overall context?:-

Graph 1 is the multiple comparison graph with our best recent Championship seasons. Graph 1 shows that after 33 games, on 64 points we are still just 6 points behind Warnock’s excellent 05/06 season – which had 70 points after 33 games. We are still ahead, by 3 points, of our 61 points in Wilder’s promotion season in 18/19. So this continues to be our best Championship season for a very long time.

Graph 1:




Graph 2 compares where we are to my benchmark results for each game to achieve an automatic promotion or a playoff season. You can see from Graph 2 that on 64 points we are now one point ahead of my Autos Certain line. This line is for almost certain automatics – and on a few points below this line we would still have a very high probability of getting automatics this season.

Graph 2:



Next, the League Table, and back to a 7-point gap back to Boro in third place, but we do also have a game in hand on them. Another thing to note from the table is that nobody can now do the double over us – Watford was the last possibility for that. I haven’t checked all the way back – but I’m guessing that it’s a long time since we achieved a double-defeat-free season. Even in our100 point season “Fucking Walsall” (to quote Wilder) managed to beat us twice in the League – I think they beat us in the FA Cup as well!

League Table


Finally, my new Run-In Table. Those of you who have read my earlier threads will recall that I assume an absolute maximum credible 2.5 points per game (ppg) in the run-in for our nearest 8 rivals, and then calculate what we would need to do to match the best of them.

The Run-In Table below shows that, after today’s results, Teesside Town have a reduced projected credible maximum - down to 87. So, our target to match that is now 23 points from 13 games at a ppg of 1.77 – much less than our current ppg of 1.94.

Run-In Table


I’ll keep putting the updated target ppg in the thread title after each matchday.

So, still our best Championship season for 20 years – and better than the 18/19 promotion season. The points per game that we need for comfortable automatic promotion is much less than we have achieved so far.

UTB & Slava Ukraini

 

[ThirdGenBlade]

I was shaking all over as the ball bounced around our penalty area in the 95th minute – but I’ll blame the cold weather!! I thought Watford showed their class up front with a flowing athletic display, but this game was won by our warriors’ performances, mostly off the ball. Three warriors at the back, and a couple up front. Oli McB for me was motm – he battled for everything – and I have seldom seen us win so many aerial duals up front. I’m giving him an assist for the goal as well!

For personal reasons, West Brom are my most hated club – but today I was a full-on Baggie, and the result at The Hawthorns made it a perfect afternoon. The Seaweed & Aeons & Christmas Cake & Cinnamon tastes especially good tonight (one for the Scotch lovers).

So, after getting the show back on the road, how does everything look in overall context?:-

Graph 1 is the multiple comparison graph with our best recent Championship seasons. Graph 1 shows that after 33 games, on 64 points we are still just 6 points behind Warnock’s excellent 05/06 season – which had 70 points after 33 games. We are still ahead, by 3 points, of our 61 points in Wilder’s promotion season in 18/19. So this continues to be our best Championship season for a very long time.

Graph 1:
View attachment 154696



Graph 2 compares where we are to my benchmark results for each game to achieve an automatic promotion or a playoff season. You can see from Graph 2 that on 64 points we are now one point ahead of my Autos Certain line. This line is for almost certain automatics – and on a few points below this line we would still have a very high probability of getting automatics this season.

Graph 2:
View attachment 154697


Next, the League Table, and back to a 7-point gap back to Boro in third place, but we do also have a game in hand on them. Another thing to note from the table is that nobody can now do the double over us – Watford was the last possibility for that. I haven’t checked all the way back – but I’m guessing that it’s a long time since we achieved a double-defeat-free season. Even in our100 point season “Fucking Walsall” (to quote Wilder) managed to beat us twice in the League – I think they beat us in the FA Cup as well!

League Table
View attachment 154698

Finally, my new Run-In Table. Those of you who have read my earlier threads will recall that I assume an absolute maximum credible 2.5 points per game (ppg) in the run-in for our nearest 8 rivals, and then calculate what we would need to do to match the best of them.

The Run-In Table below shows that, after today’s results, Teesside Town have a reduced projected credible maximum - down to 87. So, our target to match that is now 23 points from 13 games at a ppg of 1.77 – much less than our current ppg of 1.94.

Run-In Table
View attachment 154699

I’ll keep putting the updated target ppg in the thread title after each matchday.

So, still our best Championship season for 20 years – and better than the 18/19 promotion season. The points per game that we need for comfortable automatic promotion is much less than we have achieved so far.

UTB & Slava Ukraini

Thanks for this great overview.

Agree McBurnie had the biggest influence.

Berge was better, but needs to recognise his physical superiority and make contact, rather than sit off when we don’t have the ball.

Fleck made a difference - some midfield aggression at last!

Norwood was poor.

Overall, our midfield is behind our defence and attack.

Thanks again.

 

[Charlieblade]

Thanks for the positive and encouraging post. Much appreciated for me and others of a nervous disposition.
Some fans, (me included ) have been too quick to write of experienced players like Sharp, Fleck, Basham and Stevens. I’m sure they still have an important contribution to make before this season is done. Their experience will be very useful between now and game 46.

 

[KeyffSmyff]

It is good to see we have roughly equal number of games against the top, bottom and middle. Great read thanks.

 

[Frank the tank]

I'd love to see us go in for a couple of midfielders like chong and choudury if we do go up

 

[Frank the tank]

It could all turn on its head again but if we can get wins at Blackburn and Reading I think it's a big ask for boro with only having 11 games left and the gap would be at least ten points

Having said that I thought a draw would be a good result yesterday even at the end I wouldn't have been too disconsolate
Boro in the games I've seen them look like a side that throw the kitchen sink at you but leave themselves wide open at the back which is great when you are chasing down a team in front but not so great when you suddenly cant play like you have nothing to lose and your risky strategy blows up
Seen it happen so many times the chaser becomes the chased and suddenly starts to feel the pressure

 

[blade67]

Thanks ucandomagic I love this sort of stuff.

Looking at the other teams who are less than a point a game behind us and their run in is interesting

Average position of the matches left isn't that significantly different for anyone, with Millwall just about having the easiest run in but obviously coming from a long way back. Luton on the other hand have to play everyone from us to Sunderland (except Norwich) and Millwall twice.

 

[Selly]

It could all turn on its head again but if we can get wins at Blackburn and Reading I think it's a big ask for boro with only having 11 games left and the gap would be at least ten points

That's an exceptionally tough ask. As I have posted elsewhere, our next 2 opponents sit 3rd and 4th in the Home form table.

Now, admittedly, neither have played the team who is 3rd in the Away form table (us) but both are very good at home.

I'd take 3 or 4 points from the next 2, which would leave us at least 7 or 8 ahead.

 

[Tony Currie]

Can't see Middlesborough taking maximum points from - Burnley, Norwich, Luton(a). Additionally PNE (Ched back) and Huddersfield(a) (warnock) and Coventry (if playoffs possible) could be tricky. If they drop a good amount of points against these the chase is over.

 

[Frank the tank]

That's an exceptionally tough ask. As I have posted elsewhere, our next 2 opponents sit 3rd and 4th in the Home form table.

Now, admittedly, neither have played the team who is 3rd in the Away form table (us) but both are very good at home.

I'd take 3 or 4 points from the next 2, which would leave us at least 7 or 8 ahead.

Yeah big ask but fingers eh ?

 

[vas borbokis]

Thanks ucandomagic I love this sort of stuff.

Looking at the other teams who are less than a point a game behind us and their run in is interesting

Average position of the matches left isn't that significantly different for anyone, with Millwall just about having the easiest run in but obviously coming from a long way back. Luton on the other hand have to play everyone from us to Sunderland (except Norwich) and Millwall twice.
View attachment 154714

I'm not having this, the average opponent positions for us and Boro can't be right. We have much harder fixtures than them! I read it on here!

 

[Berkshire Blade]

If we maintain or extend the gap over the next 4 league games I'll be delighted

 

[RammyBlade]

Great stats guys - these really give me a lot of hope. I always look at how close we are to 2 points a match which is guaranteed promotion but your stats show so much more. Many thanks and keep it going.

 

[RammyBlade]

Thanks ucandomagic I love this sort of stuff.

Looking at the other teams who are less than a point a game behind us and their run in is interesting

Average position of the matches left isn't that significantly different for anyone, with Millwall just about having the easiest run in but obviously coming from a long way back. Luton on the other hand have to play everyone from us to Sunderland (except Norwich) and Millwall twice.
View attachment 154714

The next 6 for us are the key to us going up. with 4 away and 3 of those at play off contenders. Our last 7 though look much easier on paper but 4 of them struggling against relegation so thats never easy is it ? Great charts !! Thanks

 

[blade67]

My first post seemed far too optimistic, so I went looking for bad news, surely if Boro chase us down in the next 12 like they did in the last 12 we're fucked. Here it is.

I'm as negative s they come though, so I'm still expecting us to reeled in.

 

[Selly]

My first post seemed far too optimistic, so I went looking for bad news, surely if Boro chase us down in the next 12 like they did in the last 12 we're fucked. Here it is.

I'm as negative s they come though, so I'm still expecting us to reeled in.

View attachment 154732

Oh no, we'd only be second by 6 points rather than 7???

 

[Frank the tank]

My first post seemed far too optimistic, so I went looking for bad news, surely if Boro chase us down in the next 12 like they did in the last 12 we're fucked. Here it is.

I'm as negative s they come though, so I'm still expecting us to reeled in.

View attachment 154732

8 wins would be cigar and champers time

 

[Blade56]

My first post seemed far too optimistic, so I went looking for bad news, surely if Boro chase us down in the next 12 like they did in the last 12 we're fucked. Here it is.

I'm as negative s they come though, so I'm still expecting us to reeled in.

View attachment 154732

As SellyOakBlade sez add those points to the current table and we are 6 points clear of Boro

 

[ekke287]

As if we’ve only lost 7 games all season, and only twice by more than one goal.

In that context it’s a bloody good season and a great achievement by the squad and management team, regardless of how we finish.

In comparison we’ve won 19, on 10 occasions by 2+ goals.