ucandomagic
Well-Known Member
Waited for today’s Bristol City result to post this, so that my league table was up-to-date.
Well, how did the Pompey game go?
Before moving on to the graphs, I triggered a few heated interactions last week around the likely points that will be needed for a Top 2 finish:-
Let me be clear, I think that 92 will be enough for Automatic Promotion and I currently forecast that we will finish on 93 and be second behind Leeds. However, I have noted that this season looks very like last season and a credible set of strong results for all of the Top 4 could currently end with Leeds 99, Blades 97, Burnley & Sunderland 94. This is not a likely outcome, but it is still credible and I will monitor the results that could lead to this every week until it becomes non-credible.
So now the graphs and charts that show factually where we actually are at present.
Graph 1 compares our progress against 3 benchmark sets of results which represent Automatic Promotion, Playoff Certainty and Playoff Possibility. My benchmarks take account of who our opponents are each week. On 64 points, comparing to my benchmarks, we are a point ahead of my Autos Promotion schedule – and that is with our 2 point deduction. Again, it is good to see the trickle of piss falling away from the Playoffs Possible line. (Also, Sheffield Club had a rare win as well yesterday, so I had an extremely rare Sheffield Treble!)
Graph 1:
Graph 2 compares this season against our last 3 successful promotions from this level (all in second place), in 2005/06, 2018/19 and 2022/23. On 64 points after 31 games (with the 2-point deduction) we are 9 points ahead of the 55 points that we had under Wilder in 18/19, 3 ahead of Hecky in 22/23 and 5 points behind Warnock in 05/06.
So, however well or poorly we think we are playing, we are 9 points ahead of where we were in that great 18/19 Wilder promotion season, even with a 2-point deduction.
Graph 2:
Next, the coloured annotated up-to-date League Table, which highlights where our strengths and weaknesses are against opponents’ league positions. That Hull result sticks out on the table like an aching tooth at the back of your mouth! Personally, I think that if we can get a point from each of the Boro, Leeds and Burnley games we will be absolutely fine.
League Table:
Anyway, Wednesday will be a big test against the Smoggies. I think yesterday was the perfect preparation, as we won but Wilder has left them in no doubt that they were pretty crap in a lot of areas. They will be playing with a bee up their arses on Wednesday night!
Another stay for me at the Hunters’ Bar Airbnb Buddhist retreat again on Wednesday night :–
Om-Mani-Padme-Hum.
UTB & Slava Ukraini!
Well, how did the Pompey game go?
- JLT won the ball in midfield.
- 5 of our players touched it in 11 seconds and we scored a quality goal.
- They got round the back on their left and equalised.
- We brought on some quality subs and 2 of them combined to score the winner.
- In amongst all that Pompey missed 2 open goals, had a goal disallowed and hit the bar.
- That’s the road to promotion, the Sheff United Way!
- The Pompey supporters were brilliant throughout.
Before moving on to the graphs, I triggered a few heated interactions last week around the likely points that will be needed for a Top 2 finish:-
Let me be clear, I think that 92 will be enough for Automatic Promotion and I currently forecast that we will finish on 93 and be second behind Leeds. However, I have noted that this season looks very like last season and a credible set of strong results for all of the Top 4 could currently end with Leeds 99, Blades 97, Burnley & Sunderland 94. This is not a likely outcome, but it is still credible and I will monitor the results that could lead to this every week until it becomes non-credible.
So now the graphs and charts that show factually where we actually are at present.
Graph 1 compares our progress against 3 benchmark sets of results which represent Automatic Promotion, Playoff Certainty and Playoff Possibility. My benchmarks take account of who our opponents are each week. On 64 points, comparing to my benchmarks, we are a point ahead of my Autos Promotion schedule – and that is with our 2 point deduction. Again, it is good to see the trickle of piss falling away from the Playoffs Possible line. (Also, Sheffield Club had a rare win as well yesterday, so I had an extremely rare Sheffield Treble!)
Graph 1:
Graph 2 compares this season against our last 3 successful promotions from this level (all in second place), in 2005/06, 2018/19 and 2022/23. On 64 points after 31 games (with the 2-point deduction) we are 9 points ahead of the 55 points that we had under Wilder in 18/19, 3 ahead of Hecky in 22/23 and 5 points behind Warnock in 05/06.
So, however well or poorly we think we are playing, we are 9 points ahead of where we were in that great 18/19 Wilder promotion season, even with a 2-point deduction.
Graph 2:
Next, the coloured annotated up-to-date League Table, which highlights where our strengths and weaknesses are against opponents’ league positions. That Hull result sticks out on the table like an aching tooth at the back of your mouth! Personally, I think that if we can get a point from each of the Boro, Leeds and Burnley games we will be absolutely fine.
League Table:
Anyway, Wednesday will be a big test against the Smoggies. I think yesterday was the perfect preparation, as we won but Wilder has left them in no doubt that they were pretty crap in a lot of areas. They will be playing with a bee up their arses on Wednesday night!
Another stay for me at the Hunters’ Bar Airbnb Buddhist retreat again on Wednesday night :–
Om-Mani-Padme-Hum.
UTB & Slava Ukraini!
