ucandomagic
Well-Known Member
Just got home from my Hunters Bar AirBnB in the Buddhist Meditation Centre – so I’ve had plenty of time to think about the game!
What were we worrying about? After Portsmouth we were all set for a night of pain and humiliation, and in fact we turned out to be the torture masters. Gus was out of this world – and I think Sydie was auditioning for a Russo movie superhero part as well. Clarke had got over his Murphy experience and all over the pitch we were strong. Boro offered nothing really – apart from a clinical “penalty” finish … and the atmosphere was great. Bramall Lane became a febrile cauldron – Wilder may ask for it and fans may try, but there is nothing that generates an atmosphere at BDTBL more than an arsehole with a whistle in his mouth!
I do think that the last few weeks have shown that it is not technical quality that we find a problem in facing – it is the fast and high press – hence teams like Hull and Portsmouth are far more of a challenge to us than teams who set out to play considered technical football. And oh the joy of Big Ben’s effortless chip and of a corner actually making it to the back post where our big guys have been hanging around all season!
So now the graphs and charts that show factually where we are at present.
Graph 1 compares our progress against 3 benchmark sets of results which represent Automatic Promotion, Playoff Certainty and Playoff Possibility. My benchmarks take account of who our opponents are each week. On 67 points, comparing to my benchmarks, we are now 3 points ahead of my Autos Promotion schedule – and that is with our 2 point deduction. My forecast for us is now 95 points and second place – a club 2nd Tier record.
Graph 1:
(I did say last week that I would also keep an eye on a scenario which resulted, like last year’s Championship, in 3 or 4 teams scoring very highly right to the end of the season – my numbers for that just credible (but not likely) scenario are:-Leeds 103; Blades 99; Burnley & Sunderland on 94.)
I was also asked last week to include a graph with all of the Top 4’s progress shown together, and so this is shown on Graph 2.
Graph 2:
Graph 3 compares this season against our last 3 successful promotions from this level (all in second place), in 2005/06, 2018/19 and 2022/23. On 67 points after 32 games (with the 2-point deduction) we are still 9 points ahead of the 58 points that we had under Wilder in 18/19, now 6 points ahead of Hecky in 22/23 and just 2 points behind Warnock in 05/06.
Graph 3:
So you can see why I am forecasting a record season when we are still a huge 9 points ahead of where we were in that great 18/19 Wilder promotion season, even with a 2-point deduction. If we do finish on a record high I’ll post a comparison with Freeman’s 1952-53 results, which normalised to 93 points under the current framework.
Next, the coloured annotated up-to-date League Table, which highlights where our strengths and weaknesses are against opponents’ league positions. Our next 2 are against bottom and top – so they couldn’t be more extreme.
League Table:
I’ll try and look at this week’s XG data on Friday evening to predict the Luton game – and then we have another 9 days to prepare for the Jimmy (Ramble) v Conor (One Leeds) derby!!
Om-Mani-Padme-Hum.
UTB & Slava Ukraini!
What were we worrying about? After Portsmouth we were all set for a night of pain and humiliation, and in fact we turned out to be the torture masters. Gus was out of this world – and I think Sydie was auditioning for a Russo movie superhero part as well. Clarke had got over his Murphy experience and all over the pitch we were strong. Boro offered nothing really – apart from a clinical “penalty” finish … and the atmosphere was great. Bramall Lane became a febrile cauldron – Wilder may ask for it and fans may try, but there is nothing that generates an atmosphere at BDTBL more than an arsehole with a whistle in his mouth!
I do think that the last few weeks have shown that it is not technical quality that we find a problem in facing – it is the fast and high press – hence teams like Hull and Portsmouth are far more of a challenge to us than teams who set out to play considered technical football. And oh the joy of Big Ben’s effortless chip and of a corner actually making it to the back post where our big guys have been hanging around all season!
So now the graphs and charts that show factually where we are at present.
Graph 1 compares our progress against 3 benchmark sets of results which represent Automatic Promotion, Playoff Certainty and Playoff Possibility. My benchmarks take account of who our opponents are each week. On 67 points, comparing to my benchmarks, we are now 3 points ahead of my Autos Promotion schedule – and that is with our 2 point deduction. My forecast for us is now 95 points and second place – a club 2nd Tier record.
Graph 1:
(I did say last week that I would also keep an eye on a scenario which resulted, like last year’s Championship, in 3 or 4 teams scoring very highly right to the end of the season – my numbers for that just credible (but not likely) scenario are:-Leeds 103; Blades 99; Burnley & Sunderland on 94.)
I was also asked last week to include a graph with all of the Top 4’s progress shown together, and so this is shown on Graph 2.
Graph 2:
Graph 3 compares this season against our last 3 successful promotions from this level (all in second place), in 2005/06, 2018/19 and 2022/23. On 67 points after 32 games (with the 2-point deduction) we are still 9 points ahead of the 58 points that we had under Wilder in 18/19, now 6 points ahead of Hecky in 22/23 and just 2 points behind Warnock in 05/06.
Graph 3:
So you can see why I am forecasting a record season when we are still a huge 9 points ahead of where we were in that great 18/19 Wilder promotion season, even with a 2-point deduction. If we do finish on a record high I’ll post a comparison with Freeman’s 1952-53 results, which normalised to 93 points under the current framework.
Next, the coloured annotated up-to-date League Table, which highlights where our strengths and weaknesses are against opponents’ league positions. Our next 2 are against bottom and top – so they couldn’t be more extreme.
League Table:
I’ll try and look at this week’s XG data on Friday evening to predict the Luton game – and then we have another 9 days to prepare for the Jimmy (Ramble) v Conor (One Leeds) derby!!
Om-Mani-Padme-Hum.
UTB & Slava Ukraini!
.
