ucandomagic
Well-Known Member
What a difference a week makes – at least we’re still second, as both of the Yorkshire clubs in the race “fell apart” somewhat!
Our performance was flat, and the whole game was a really low quality affair. We had only 1 shot that had a shot xg above 0.1, and both teams barely scraped a full match xg above 1. The game was decided by Seriki ball-watching and allowing his man to run and have a virtual tap-in, as a long throw was flicked on. The only player with any real credit was the Oxford keeper, Jamie Cumming, who did make a couple of decent stops – I pointed out last week that Cumming is 4th, one place above Cooper, in the Championship Goalkeeper stats.
Anyway, that’s more than enough about a very forgettable game – what do the overall graphs and charts look like.
Graph 1 compares our progress against 3 benchmark sets of results which represent Automatic Promotion, Playoff Certainty and Playoff Possibility. My benchmarks take account of who our opponents are each week. On 83 points, comparing to my benchmarks, we are now 5 points ahead of my Autos Promotion (92-point) schedule – and that is with our 2 point deduction.
However, I now think that, unbelievably, we could need 97 for second place this year. I’ve added the new 97 target to Graph 1, which I will update if future results change my target. (Wendy’s yellow trickle on Graph 1 has only crept up 1 point in the last 3 games as well!)
My current end of season forecast is Leeds 98, Blades 97, Burnley 96! - and that includes a draw at Turf Moor! Very squeaky bum time on April 21st!
Graph 1:
Graph 2 compares this season against our last 3 successful promotions from this level (all in second place), in 2005/06, 2018/19 and 2022/23. On 83 points after 40 games (with the 2-point deduction) we are 6 points ahead of the 77 points that we had under Wilder in 18/19, 7 points ahead of Hecky in 22/23 and 5 points ahead of Warnock in 05/06. (Unfortunately, the second place totals in those seasons were very much lower than this season’s will be!)
Let’s hope that the 2 -point deduction isn’t coming back to bite us!
Graph 2:
Next, the coloured annotated up-to-date League Table which, unfortunately highlights those 2 unacceptable red blocks at the bottom of the table.
No Panic, we won 4 in a row after that Hull game!!
League Table:
Who would have thought that, with the toughest game this weekend, Burnley would end up being the big winners?!
Football!!
UTB & Slava Ukraini!
Our performance was flat, and the whole game was a really low quality affair. We had only 1 shot that had a shot xg above 0.1, and both teams barely scraped a full match xg above 1. The game was decided by Seriki ball-watching and allowing his man to run and have a virtual tap-in, as a long throw was flicked on. The only player with any real credit was the Oxford keeper, Jamie Cumming, who did make a couple of decent stops – I pointed out last week that Cumming is 4th, one place above Cooper, in the Championship Goalkeeper stats.
Anyway, that’s more than enough about a very forgettable game – what do the overall graphs and charts look like.
Graph 1 compares our progress against 3 benchmark sets of results which represent Automatic Promotion, Playoff Certainty and Playoff Possibility. My benchmarks take account of who our opponents are each week. On 83 points, comparing to my benchmarks, we are now 5 points ahead of my Autos Promotion (92-point) schedule – and that is with our 2 point deduction.
However, I now think that, unbelievably, we could need 97 for second place this year. I’ve added the new 97 target to Graph 1, which I will update if future results change my target. (Wendy’s yellow trickle on Graph 1 has only crept up 1 point in the last 3 games as well!)
My current end of season forecast is Leeds 98, Blades 97, Burnley 96! - and that includes a draw at Turf Moor! Very squeaky bum time on April 21st!
Graph 1:
Graph 2 compares this season against our last 3 successful promotions from this level (all in second place), in 2005/06, 2018/19 and 2022/23. On 83 points after 40 games (with the 2-point deduction) we are 6 points ahead of the 77 points that we had under Wilder in 18/19, 7 points ahead of Hecky in 22/23 and 5 points ahead of Warnock in 05/06. (Unfortunately, the second place totals in those seasons were very much lower than this season’s will be!)
Let’s hope that the 2 -point deduction isn’t coming back to bite us!
Graph 2:
Next, the coloured annotated up-to-date League Table which, unfortunately highlights those 2 unacceptable red blocks at the bottom of the table.
No Panic, we won 4 in a row after that Hull game!!
League Table:
Who would have thought that, with the toughest game this weekend, Burnley would end up being the big winners?!
Football!!
UTB & Slava Ukraini!
