ucandomagic
Well-Known Member
First set of graphs and Tables of the season - so not a great deal to see yet. I waited to post this until everybody had played 1 match.
I thought we actually looked like a Prem team that had come down on Friday, and much more like a Prem team than we did last year! Having suffered the Covid Prem season under Wilder, I wasn't happy that Hecky's promoted team was good enough to do any better. Although that was true, the promotion under Hecky has been very worthwhile - as our finances are in good order and our current team is probably just a GoalCooper away from a reasonable Prem side. I texted my son at halftime that I was happy with the performance but disappointed with Gus - not that he had played really badly, but that I expected more from him. Cue his quality goal!! Other than that, particularly pleased that the defence looked solid - and thought Anel was back to his best again - a few really powerful forward runs.
As usual, I'm posting some graphs each week following our progress.
Graph 1 compares our progress against 3 benchmark sets of results. I've taken each match and created 3 sets of results to achieve 3 points totals, which should represent Automatic Promotion, Playoff Certainty and Playoff Possibility. My benchmarks take account of who our opponents are each week. All 3 of my benchmarks had a draw away at Preston and so with our 1 point win (!) we are level with all 3 target lines. In reality, of course, we are ahead of them because we have 1 point with a plus-2 goal difference! As the red line has just started and is the same as the other 3 lines it is barely visible, but it's good to look at the future as well.
Graph 1:
Graph 2 compares this season against our last 3 successful promotions from this level (all in second place), in 2005/06, 2018/19 and 2022/23. These earlier season results are the results from the same game day – not the same opponents. Interestingly, we lost our first game in the last 2 promotion seasons, 0-1 at home to Swansea under Wilder and 0-1 away at Watford under Hecky. So even with our 2 point deduction we are already ahead of our last 2 promotion seasons!
Graph 2:
Finally, I'm posting the coloured annotated up-to-date League Table, which highlights where our strengths and weaknesses are against different quality opponents. I apologise for including it this week, for obvious reasons, but suffice it to say that a table with Oxford in 4th can only be pure fiction!
League Table:
So, everything is looking great at present.
Having pressed on them from Preston, let's hope that tonight we can also say that we wrecked them from Wrexham!
UTB & Slava Ukraini!
I thought we actually looked like a Prem team that had come down on Friday, and much more like a Prem team than we did last year! Having suffered the Covid Prem season under Wilder, I wasn't happy that Hecky's promoted team was good enough to do any better. Although that was true, the promotion under Hecky has been very worthwhile - as our finances are in good order and our current team is probably just a GoalCooper away from a reasonable Prem side. I texted my son at halftime that I was happy with the performance but disappointed with Gus - not that he had played really badly, but that I expected more from him. Cue his quality goal!! Other than that, particularly pleased that the defence looked solid - and thought Anel was back to his best again - a few really powerful forward runs.
As usual, I'm posting some graphs each week following our progress.
Graph 1 compares our progress against 3 benchmark sets of results. I've taken each match and created 3 sets of results to achieve 3 points totals, which should represent Automatic Promotion, Playoff Certainty and Playoff Possibility. My benchmarks take account of who our opponents are each week. All 3 of my benchmarks had a draw away at Preston and so with our 1 point win (!) we are level with all 3 target lines. In reality, of course, we are ahead of them because we have 1 point with a plus-2 goal difference! As the red line has just started and is the same as the other 3 lines it is barely visible, but it's good to look at the future as well.
Graph 1:
Graph 2 compares this season against our last 3 successful promotions from this level (all in second place), in 2005/06, 2018/19 and 2022/23. These earlier season results are the results from the same game day – not the same opponents. Interestingly, we lost our first game in the last 2 promotion seasons, 0-1 at home to Swansea under Wilder and 0-1 away at Watford under Hecky. So even with our 2 point deduction we are already ahead of our last 2 promotion seasons!
Graph 2:
Finally, I'm posting the coloured annotated up-to-date League Table, which highlights where our strengths and weaknesses are against different quality opponents. I apologise for including it this week, for obvious reasons, but suffice it to say that a table with Oxford in 4th can only be pure fiction!
League Table:
So, everything is looking great at present.
Having pressed on them from Preston, let's hope that tonight we can also say that we wrecked them from Wrexham!
UTB & Slava Ukraini!
